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nordique
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 4:20 pm 
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"The weather forecast models are now pretty much on the same page for the next snow event and confidence in the forecast is quite high:   there is going to be a major snow event over much of the Pacific Northwest starting late Friday and continuing into the weekend.

A much larger snow event than occurred on Sunday night/Monday morning of this week.  And one in which snow will be falling on a surface that is now cooled substantially.

I have studied Northwest snowstorms for years and even co-authored a paper on the subject.  What is forecast to occur late Friday and this weekend is absolutely classic."

Cliff Mass:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-major-snowstorm-will-hit-region.html?m=1
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geyer
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 5:12 pm 
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Why do NOAA point forecasts show much less snow than the storm last week?

NWS forecast for Seattle

NWS forecast for Artist Point

Even when Cliff Mass has evidence to support his claims, I've become so much more skeptical of him with all of his clickbait-y titles. I swear, I used to read his blog like gospel, and now I find myself rolling my eyes more often than not. I guess only time will tell if he's right this time
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nordique
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 7:10 pm 
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The gold standard is still the weather service.  Cliff is often at the upper or lower edges of the government forecasts--but still worth considering, especially for those of us with performance tires on our sports sedan!
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joker
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 7:45 pm 
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Clickbaity is a good description

We shall see. The NWS forecast discussion shows much hedging of bets based on cross model variance.

I predict that WSDOT and SDOT invest in more road surface pretreatment this time around though!
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BigBrunyon
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 9:11 pm 
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B'lieve it when i'see it!! Look heres the deal: it snowed!! Compared to cliff mass, I've always been known to be in the biz of tellin' the news after the fact!! That's what the news is about!!  It snowed!!

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treeswarper
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PostWed Feb 06, 2019 9:29 pm 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
B'lieve it when i'see it!! Look heres the deal: it snowed!! Compared to cliff mass, I've always been known to be in the biz of tellin' the news after the fact!! That's what the news is about!!  It snowed!!

And it might could snow again!  Or not.

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Mikey
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 6:10 am 
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I agree with Geyer.
It is my understanding that the models can predict fairly accurately weather events which have occurred frequently because the models use past weather measured data to build the models (ie the models are empirical, not entirely based on basic physical-chemical fundamental equations).  Rare weather events such as snow, very cold, very high wind events in Western Washington are rare and so there is less measured data for the models to design their empirical equations .  The U of W modelers have told me that the models analyze (process) the measured atmospheric data and then use historical data to empirically shift or modify the forecast.  In other words, it is my understanding that if a model gets weather data that predicts it will snow 2 ft in Seattle, the model looks at the historical data for Seattle and if there has never been a lot of snow fallen on that time period in Seattle, the model will modify the prediction to less snow.  If the historical data shows that Seattle never has had snow in that time period, the model may shift the forecast to trace of snow (whereas the measured data is predicting 2 ft of snow to fall).  Note that I do not recall 2 ft of snow falling in Seattle for a long time (ie since the 1960s).

In Western Wash (Seattle) I have experienced situations when the forecast was for no snow but by noon it looked (visually) like a snow storm was imminent along with low (below freezing temp) and so I departed work (drove my 3/4 ton GMC 4x4 with studded snow tires) about 1 pm and about 2pm it started snowing and by 8pm it snowed a lot (maybe 10" or more) with traffic a mess, buses not able to run, I knew of people who had to walk from work to get home.
My U of W room mate was a meteorology major (now called Atmospheric Sciences) so I learned some meteorology because back in those days all of the forecasting was done by hand.  There was surface data available from weather ships off the Pacific Coast along with land measured data.  Now days models are used and there are satellites. I acknowledge that Cliff Mass is very good at weather forecasting. But I am cautious about the weather forecasts.  In later years I took a Physical Climatology course taught by U of W Professor Phil Church (Chair of Dept of Atm Sciences) and learned a lot about the difficulties of predicting weather in Washington State.

Nordique  Ever since I experienced my GMC 4x4 do a 360 degree trajectory when I attempted to turn north onto the Teanaway road from Hwy 97 on black ice, I have had studded snow tires on all 4 wheels during the winter.  Studded tires are rarely needed but they can be life savers.
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treeswarper
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 7:32 am 
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These folks have more snow forecast than the "less than 4 inches" on the regular weather predictions.  This is for the rest of Warshington.

for here
During the last gloppy snowfall, the neighbor with the plow cleaned out snowplow berms on our street just for nice.  A few of us got together and cleaned out driveways.  I chose a nice place to live, for being "In Town".

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thunderhead
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 8:31 am 
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Quote:
the models use past weather

Some do, some don't.

The major player for forecast accuracy is the size of the feature(larger is more accurate), how far ahead it is(tomorrow is more accurate than next week), and the lack of mountains.

So for a big outbreak of cold air, even record cold, thats a very large feature that covers half a continent, moving slowly... it is very well forecast.  We know almost to a certainty cold air will last for some time, and forecast temperature error at the local airports has been quite small for this latest cold airmass.

Tomorrow afternoon's snow, a smaller scale feature, heavily influenced by local terrain... is far less precise.
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Joey
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 8:52 am 
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Just in case Cliff's possibility of 2 feet is more right than wrong for our neighborhood, I need to unhook the log splitter from our tractor and put the backhoe on for better traction and maneuverability.  If it happens, it will be the third time in the 28 years we have lived here that I needed to plow 1/2 mile out to the county road.  Having a big powered snow shovel is way easier than the shoveling I did in Minnesota back in the day.
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moonspots
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 10:01 am 
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Joey wrote:
Having a big powered snow shovel is way easier than the shoveling I did in Minnesota back in the day.

Yes! I spent about 2 hours earlier this week dealing with about 15" of new snow with a snowblower and upon completion, I recalled that 30+ years ago I would have shoveled it. Not now!  shakehead.gif

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Sky Hiker
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 10:12 am 
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I will be heading to the hills with my snow shoes
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DadFly
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 11:24 am 
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https://www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/current/

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Doppelganger
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 11:45 am 
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Cliff's excited about the weekend.

I'd like to think we will get another '96 snowfall to play around in for a few days. My inner child is jumping up and down with him. Let's get this started Canada, send us that Fraser River Valley air faster!
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DadFly
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PostThu Feb 07, 2019 11:54 am 
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I plan on being out there up to my earballs in snow.
The skiis and skins are packed.
The gear is ready.
Food is being prepared.

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"May you live in interesting times"
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