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Eric Hansen
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PostSun Jun 16, 2019 5:45 pm 
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June 15th update, wild land fire outlook

https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/content/products/fwx/MonthlySeasonal.pdf
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timberghost
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PostMon Jun 17, 2019 5:38 am 
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That's encouraging
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Sky Hiker
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PostMon Jun 17, 2019 5:54 am 
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Going to be one of those start hiking real early years
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KarlK
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PostMon Jun 17, 2019 6:36 pm 
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KarlK says "if life gives you lemons,  get a red card"

A couple of pictures from last year's Crescent Mountain fire:

Night duty on Crescent fire, Sept. 4, 2018
Night duty on Crescent fire, Sept. 4, 2018

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Karl J Kaiyala
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treeswarper
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PostMon Jun 17, 2019 7:14 pm 
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Engine slugs! smile.gif

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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KarlK
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PostMon Jun 17, 2019 7:46 pm 
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Yeah, but interesting and I liked the guys and  gals I worked with. More on tap this summer, methinks  up.gif

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Karl J Kaiyala
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treeswarper
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PostTue Jun 18, 2019 8:19 am 
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KarlK wrote:
Yeah, but interesting and I liked the guys and  gals I worked with. More on tap this summer, methinks  up.gif

We shall see.  The good thing about engine slugging, for those not familiar, is that you can take a bit more comfort items along and you get to get off your feet a bit more, if the water tender is broken down so you have to go fill up at another spot.  Much easier on the feets. 

I used to, a long time ago, go off on 20 person crews.  Got to work on an engine a couple of times.  On one thrown together out of desperation crew, we named ourselves Mopshots.   Neither was my day job.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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KarlK
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PostTue Jun 18, 2019 9:31 am 
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Cliff Mass just put up a post forecasting a relatively wet near-term pattern that could possibly extend longer term.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

I got into Wildland Fire (through a program run by Team Rubicon) in early May 2018. I did my pack test in 37:14, the fastest among the 80-odd folks humping their 45 lb loads the three miles at Gowan Field in Boise.

I figured a strong performance might offset my age (67) in the decision process by which red cards are called by Cody Dispatch for an AD agency gig. I wanted to get on a line crew. So I trained (a lot) for the test by humping a 67 lb load 3.25 miles with 500' of elevation gain near my place in Brier. I got so I could average 5mph doing that.

But it turns out your pack test time is not recorded on your paperwork, and I never got a call. But one of my TR colleagues referred me to a contractor he was working for, so I called the contractor and wound up on three fires in the late summer. I liked it a lot. We did a lot of different things, and I saw a lot of amazing stuff. My engine bosses and crew mates were smart and interesting people and I have enormous respect for them.

This year I did my pack test in 34:05; I've perfected an efficient quasi race-walk style (the rules prohibit running). This really annoyed a couple of the young guys, one in particular, but young guys relying on youth are sometimes surprised by treacherous old fitness fanatics who've dialed in what works and what doesn't.

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Karl J Kaiyala
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gb
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PostFri Jun 21, 2019 8:29 am 
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We remain lucky for now. Despite a very dry winter/spring, it is at least somewhat moist now and recently. Decent rains have fallen and are likely to continue for awhile. Rains extended into the Blue Mountains and Idaho Rockies and have been OK in the Cascades and Olympics. BC is also benefitting from moister conditions and there are as of yet no large fires there.

Alberta is a different story and several very large fires continue around and NW of Edmonton. The Canada smoke forecast shows wrap around smoke from those AB fires coming down the coast with thick smoke in roughly the Vancouver area today.

But it could be a lot worse. For now we can consider ourselves very lucky.
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gb
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PostMon Jun 24, 2019 5:23 pm 
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June 20th update from CPC for July:

Quote:
Of the statistical tools, the CAS bears the closest resemblance to this predicted
pattern of upper-tercile precipitation, which also looks fairly similar to
recent observations of both heavy rainfall and very high soil moisture. The CFS
precipitation anomaly forecast for July lends some support to this area of
anomalous wetness. However, it predicts the lion's share of the rainfall to be
focused farther west, over the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Intermountain
Region, and the Northern and Central Rockies.
A majority of input models for
the NMME generally predict this corridor of wetter-than-normal conditions,
though there are variations on the overall theme. The NASA, CMC2 Canadian
model, and the IMME also extended the favored area of above normal rainfall
farther west as indicated by the CFS.
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Eric Hansen
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PostTue Jul 02, 2019 3:16 pm 
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https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/06/seattle-air-quality-smoke-wildfires-shelters-where-find-safe/592519/

Seattle will open clean air shelters as relief from wildfire smoke

High Country News linked to this article in their e news.
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Eric Hansen
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PostWed Jul 03, 2019 5:33 pm 
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https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/content/products/fwx/MonthlySeasonal.pdf

July 1 update of wild land fire outlook
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Slim
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PostFri Jul 05, 2019 8:42 am 
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Heavy rains predicted in BC,  lower than normal wildfire activity through July and one of the wettest Julys in recent memory.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/07/british-columbia-is-about-to-be.html

So much for predictions.  dizzy.gif

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gb
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PostTue Jul 09, 2019 3:30 pm 
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Everything may change around July 20th. Fires could easily initially be a problem from the Yukon and Coastal Alaska depending on starts (thunderstorms).

Quote:
The updated precipitation outlook for July depicts a large change in Alaska
relative to the earlier 0.5-month lead outlook issued June 20th. The latest
official CPC Week-2 and Week-3/4 precipitation outlooks depict a much drier
pattern across Alaska than was indicated ten days ago, primarily due to above
normal 500-hPa heights and ridging. CFS precipitation forecasts during the past
few days in particular also support a much drier pattern in Alaska for July.
Probabilities exceed 50-percent across the southern Alaska Panhandle, which is
experiencing precipitation deficits of at least 20 inches during the past 365
days. Below normal (lower-tercile) precipitation is also favored to extend
southward across Washington, Oregon, and far northern California due to
mid-level ridging, as well as a very dry climatology. The summertime presence
of the subtropical ridge over the southern CONUS favors below normal rainfall
across much of this area. The anticipated delay in the onset of the Southwest
Monsoon is best supported by models, and official WPC and CPC rainfall
forecasts which cover all time scales out to 30-days in advance over most of
Arizona, and southern portions of neighboring states. Lower-tercile
precipitation is also favored from central and southern Texas
east-northeastward across most of the Gulf Coast states and interior Southeast.
Though the subtropical High is expected to play a role in suppressing
larger-scale areas of convection across this region, there are mixed
indications from official precipitation outlooks and model forecasts during the
constituent periods within July that this ridge will not be unusually strong or
long-lasting. However, localized and short-lived areas of flash drought are
still possible across the Southeast, especially at this time of year,
coinciding with any extended period of high temperatures and high
evapo-transpiration rates/moisture losses. In contrast with these areas of
predicted relative dryness across portions of the CONUS and most of Alaska,
there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation from parts of the
Northern and Central Rockies eastward across most of the Northern and Central
Plains, the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley, with an
extension southward across much of New Mexico and West Texas. This broad region
of favored upper-tercile precipitation corresponds reasonably well with
climatological MCS tracks and meandering baroclinic zones. The last 9 days of
CFS runs (valid for July) lend good support for this relatively wet region.
Elsewhere, Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above normal precipitation is
favored.
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gb
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PostThu Jul 11, 2019 3:36 pm 
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They've definitely had the starts. Over 1000 firefighters have been dispatched to Alaska from Washington and Oregon with 600,000 acres burning.

The Canada Smoke Forecast looks ominous but for now and the next several days flow here is from the SW off the Pacific.

http://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/BSC18CA12/current/
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