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MtnGoat
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PostThu Jul 11, 2019 2:56 pm 
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Slim wrote:
Heavy rains predicted in BC,  lower than normal wildfire activity through July and one of the wettest Julys in recent memory.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/07/british-columbia-is-about-to-be.html

So much for predictions.  dizzy.gif

Don't worry, they're real certain about predictions for decades or centuries.  rolleyes.gif

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gb
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PostThu Jul 11, 2019 7:10 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
Slim wrote:
Heavy rains predicted in BC,  lower than normal wildfire activity through July and one of the wettest Julys in recent memory. 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/07/british-columbia-is-about-to-be.html

So much for predictions.  dizzy.gif

Don't worry, they're real certain about predictions for decades or centuries.   clown.gif clown.gif 

Reading is not your strong suit.  lol.gif I and the CPC mentioned Alaska as being very dry - a quick google would have told you that the fires are in Alaska and the Yukon. That was obvious from the Canada smoke forecast and for now that is where the smoke would come from depending on wind direction - (Another Rex Block over Alaska). That has already happened a good number of times in the past six months.

My information on how dry NW BC has been came from Andy MacKinnon.

Yes, BC except Northwestern is quite wet as forecast.

I've got an idea, why don't you take a trip to Jasper this month. The change would do you good.
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Anne Elk
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PostSat Jul 13, 2019 2:45 pm 
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Good weather forecast for the next 10 days by Cliff Mass (video with pressure graphics) for the west side and BC, at least for lowering fire threat:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/07/my-forecast-discussion-for-saturday.html

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gb
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PostWed Jul 17, 2019 12:44 pm 
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BC Wildfire service year to date statistics

We continue to be very lucky thanks to spring and summer moisture. Last year by June 30th, 1,300,000 hectares had burnt (3,300,000 acres)
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BigBrunyon
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PostWed Jul 17, 2019 1:10 pm 
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AccuWeather shows summer starting more or less this Saturday. Just in time for me to head up into the north cascs next week smoke free!

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Slim
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PostWed Jul 17, 2019 1:44 pm 
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From:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/07/a-wet-week-during-driest-time-of-year.html

Quote:
The latest extended forecasts (e.g., the NOAA/NWS CFSv2) do NOT indicate an unusually dry August (see below).  The bottom line:  after all the scary talk about a dry summer with catastrophic wildfires, it is becoming clear that such an apocalyptic scenario is becoming highly unlikely and you can enjoy the sunny days ahead without worry or concern.

One man's opinion anyways.

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gb
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PostWed Jul 17, 2019 4:43 pm 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
AccuWeather shows summer starting more or less this Saturday. Just in time for me to head up into the north cascs next week smoke free!

For about one week with the probability of one short rainstorm somewhere in there.
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gb
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PostWed Jul 31, 2019 6:35 am 
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First smoke yesterday visible towards Darrington yesterday morning and obvious throughout the west side back along I-5. It appears the smoke, which was diffuse, was below 10,000' from views of Mt. Rainier in the PM. The source was the fairly large fires (12,000 and 14,000 acres) near the Oregon/California border with SW winds bringing the smoke up. Winds will be better more west to NW next ten days.
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thunderhead
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 6:24 am 
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Lol.  This prediction aged poorly.
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gb
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 7:11 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
Lol.  This prediction aged poorly.

What prediction did you make that "aged poorly"
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Jordan
y



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y
PostMon Sep 09, 2019 7:21 am 
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Goes to show, predictions are only educated guesses at best.  With everything around us changing constantly, no one is going to be able to accurately predict what will happen a year into the future.  Or 12 years for that matter.  Fires are not going to get worse every year.
Just like we won't get a foot of snow in the lowlands every year.  The earths temperature is going to change like it always has.  No one can predict where it's going, how long it will take to get there or tell us how to stop the cycle that it's always been in.

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thunderhead
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 7:25 am 
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gb wrote:
I personally think we are sc*%ed. The snowpack is poor and will be gone very soon east of the Cascades and the weather pattern that gave us the cold weather in February/early March is still persisting or repeating. Upper airflow out of Northern Canada then down along the coast and into California. Really no moisture here

I personally love when people make hysterical long range forecasts that end up completely wrong.
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neek
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 7:41 am 
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Can we just be glad the state is not on fire right now?  Other parts of the world haven't been so lucky.
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gb
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 8:45 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
gb wrote:
I personally think we are sc*%ed. The snowpack is poor and will be gone very soon east of the Cascades and the weather pattern that gave us the cold weather in February/early March is still persisting or repeating. Upper airflow out of Northern Canada then down along the coast and into California. Really no moisture here

I personally love when people make hysterical long range forecasts that end up completely wrong.

Seems like you had to look through lots of threads to go back and find something to post for a personal vendetta.

We have been just really lucky this year as the snowpack especially NW Cascades and Olympics was very poor. There is essentially no neve left even on the Frying Pan Glacier right to the top as of about ten days ago. We got just enough moisture and cloud cover to keep it ok as regards moisture, but not for glaciers. This was one of the very worst years since the 1970's.
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 8:50 am 
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Jordan wrote:
Goes to show, predictions are only educated guesses at best.

To be fair, I think and hope everybody knows this.

If not, I have a really expensive crystal ball that needs a new home.  🙂
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