Forum Index > Trail Talk > Another Smoky Summer
Previous :: Next Topic  
Author Message
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 2684 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
  Top

Faster than light
PostSat May 04, 2019 10:14 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Sculpin wrote:
Well put!  Here is Cliff Mass' essay on exactly that topic:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/09/what-kind-of-weather-pattern-produces.html

When it comes to fires and climate change, Cliff Mass sees his job as to persuade, not to educate.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
joker
seeker



Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 7481 | TRs
Location: state of confusion
joker
  Top

seeker
PostSat May 04, 2019 12:13 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Cyclopath wrote:
Sculpin wrote:
Well put!  Here is Cliff Mass' essay on exactly that topic:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/09/what-kind-of-weather-pattern-produces.html

When it comes to fires and climate change, Cliff Mass sees his job as to persuade, not to educate.

Yeah, close to a month ago I saw folks posting a blog of his wherein  he was apparently predicting we'd catch up on snowpack during the  month of April. I think the fact that  he nailed  the urban snowmaggedon in February had some  folks  viewing him as infallible. NOT
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5073 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostSat May 04, 2019 4:55 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I personally think we are sc*%ed. The snowpack is poor and will be gone very soon east of the Cascades and the weather pattern that gave us the cold weather in February/early March is still persisting or repeating. Upper airflow out of Northern Canada then down along the coast and into California. Really no moisture here and even in California it is just sporadic. In winter this flow brought us modified arctic air but low level cold air in Canada is long gone and this is a predominantly dry pattern. It likely won't be long before it gets hot - at least much warmer than normal for spring. So, we've got the dry and all we will need is a cut-off low to migrate in the absence of strong steering into the Pacific NW. That will give us the fire starters.

March was the 2nd driest on record and April was also very dry. It probably only snowed 4-5' in the Cascades in those two months. Despite rather normal April temperatures and cool the last ten days, the snowpack ranges from 55-75% of normal and is much lower at low elevations. Realize that snowfall in the range of 400-600" is normal in the Cascades (west slopes).
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5073 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostSun May 05, 2019 7:16 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Don't expect help from British Columbia either. I spoke to Andy MacKinnon briefly at a lecture he gave last night at the Mountaineers.

My question: I would imagine BC has been much drier than normal as well?

MacKinnon: Very much so (or something like that).

How far north does that problem extend?

He mentioned Bella Coola, and then said he had spent March on Haida Gwai and that in that month, the apex of North American precipitation received just 2cm of rain. He said it was so dry that the Salal was dying. He went to say that he understood there had been a few rains there recently but nothing like normal.

I asked about Kluane.

He said immediately that for an extended period Telegraph Creek in extreme northern BC had set daily temperature records on average by about +2.5C per day and went on to say when temperature records are set it is usually like a tenth or two of a degree. "But +2.5 degrees, and that is Celsius....."

Although it is hard to know about fires in the Coast Mountains because fire start sources are rare, east of the Coast Range it is typically a very different story.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 2684 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
  Top

Faster than light
PostSun May 05, 2019 4:53 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I would guess there's about 3-4 inches on the ground near Washington Pass.  Seems low for this time of year.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
shane w
Member
Member


Joined: 14 Apr 2012
Posts: 23 | TRs

shane w
  Top

Member
PostSun May 05, 2019 8:56 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Any pics? That seems super low.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 2684 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
  Top

Faster than light
PostMon May 06, 2019 12:06 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I do have pics, but they don't show how much snow you'll find there.  I'm a road cyclist, I was in the Methow this weekend to support a friend in the Sunflower Trail Marathon.  We didn't hike this weekend.  My photos are from the road, and there's more snow on the sides of the road than anywhere else, remnants of plowing.  Looking at the ground beyond that, there's very little snow left.  Probably more in the woods.

I just posted a TR, titled Washington Pass.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
drm
Member
Member


Joined: 24 Feb 2007
Posts: 1258 | TRs
Location: The Dalles, OR
drm
  Top

Member
PostMon May 06, 2019 12:26 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
There is a big difference between high altitude smoke affecting your views and breathing low altitude smoke. Smoke from fairly distant fires seems to be up high in the atmosphere, only close fires tend to be really smoky at ground level.

Of course the clearest weather is best but lack of good views will never keep me indoors and at home. I might choose a different route, but if at all possible I will be out there.

The other thing is that dry only leads to fires, in most cases, if there is lightening. People start them sometimes of course, but we've had a number of very dry years around here on Mts Hood and Adams with no fires because there was a lack of thunderstorms.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
FiresideChats
Member
Member


Joined: 20 Jan 2014
Posts: 248 | TRs
Location: San Juan Islands
FiresideChats
  Top

Member
PostTue May 07, 2019 11:43 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Well, let's take a look at WA Snotel:

Beaver Pass: ~60% snowpack. The story: very dry since mid March.

Thunder Basin: ~45% snowpack. The story: again, drop after mid-March, acceleration in Mid-April

Lyman Lake: ~60% snowpack. The story: lower precipitation starts sharply at the end on January. Interesting.

Stevens Pass: ~55% snowpack. The story: dry from mid February to mid April

Corral Pass: ~85% snowpack. The story: Above average snowpack until the last few weeks, then a sharp decline.

Paradise: ~90% snowpack. The story: slightly below-average water year.

Potato Hill: ~110% snowpack. The story: Average and then snowmaggen at the end of January into Feb. Average precipitation, above-average snowfall.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
RichP
Member
Member


Joined: 13 Jul 2006
Posts: 4506 | TRs
Location: Moscow, Id.
RichP
  Top

Member
PostWed May 08, 2019 7:37 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
We had the first fire of the season start in my area yesterday. It quickly grew to over 300 acres in windy conditions. It started in an "industrial logging area." The cause is yet unknown but under investigation.

http://dnews.com/local/wildfire-scorches-acres-north-of-harvard-continues-to-burn/article_b08702a6-0435-57fb-b7b5-ff39422c924f.html

--------------
Without obsession, life is nothing. John Waters
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Doppelganger
Gorecrow



Joined: 09 Feb 2006
Posts: 1457 | TRs
Location: Pessimising
Doppelganger
  Top

Gorecrow
PostWed May 08, 2019 8:21 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I resubmit an earlier contribution of mine to a similar thread in years past. It's fitting.

Quote:
Too late for any of that now. No cure for myopia sadly, and it looks like our last realistic chance at keeping it down to a 2 degree increase is passing us by now. Watching the fires around the globe - Spain, Greece, California - and considering the rate at which reef and sea life is declining, I'm glad our generations were born in times that afforded us the chance to see some of these things in their full beauty, vibrant and unchallenged yet by man.

And I'm sad and disappointed that we have failed as the stewards of this place.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
MtnGoat
Member
Member


Joined: 17 Dec 2001
Posts: 10746 | TRs
Location: Lyle, WA
MtnGoat
  Top

Member
PostWed May 08, 2019 4:53 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I submit the fact that...correlation is not causation.

--------------
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5073 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostThu May 09, 2019 6:32 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
MtnGoat wrote:
I submit the fact that...correlation is not causation.

I submit the fact that that is an interesting conversation piece, but entirely irrelevant to the topic.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Backpacker Joe
NWH Joe-Bob



Joined: 16 Dec 2001
Posts: 22980 | TRs
Location: Cle Elum
Backpacker Joe
  Top

NWH Joe-Bob
PostThu May 09, 2019 7:02 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I spoke with a ranger at the station in Cle Elum today. She told me the predictions are for fires along the Western United States coast line this summer.

--------------
"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."

Abraham Lincoln
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Grannyhiker
Member
Member


Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 3189 | TRs
Location: Gateway to the Columbia Gorge
Grannyhiker
  Top

Member
PostThu May 09, 2019 7:28 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
We are under a Red Flag Warning here in NW Oregon, only 9 days into May!

--------------
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view.--E.Abbey
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
  Display:     All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Forum Index > Trail Talk > Another Smoky Summer
  Happy Birthday newdawnfades, sconey!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
   Use Disclaimer Powered by phpBB Privacy Policy