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Brushwork
Know your complex



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Know your complex
PostMon Sep 09, 2019 9:38 pm 
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Cyclopath wrote:
If not, I have a really expensive crystal ball that needs a new home.† 🙂

Iíll take it....

ok, just kidding.

We have been lucky with the heat this year.    I would rather hike in the pouring rain (like today)than have the heat and possible fires.

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joker
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PostMon Sep 09, 2019 10:03 pm 
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I'm glad you were  wrong on  this gb,  as I'm sure you are! I've been liking having a summer that's more like the PNW summers we tended  to get when we moved here in the '90s.
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?



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Why Do Witches Burn?
PostMon Sep 09, 2019 10:18 pm 
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joker wrote:
I'm glad you were  wrong on  this gb,  as I'm sure you are! I've been liking having a summer that's more like the PNW summers we tended  to get when we moved here in the '90s.

This was the kind of summer I remember from my youth.  I'll take the cooler temps and occasional rain over 90+ degree temps and choking smoke ANY day!

Well, it actually has been a bit warmer this summer than what I remember from "the good old days" especially at night.  High temps may not have been real high this summer, but low temps were well above the averages for lows.

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Jordan
y



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y
PostTue Sep 10, 2019 3:31 am 
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Cyclopath wrote:
To be fair, I think and hope everybody knows this.

I hope so too, but do not think so.  Just look at how people are trying to drastically, and I do mean DRASTICALLY, change the way we live in America.  We live how a first world nation lives.  The want to move back to the stone age is the hysteria.  Unfortunately there are still a lot of people out there that believe everything the news tells them.

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Doppelganger
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 6:58 am 
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Jordan wrote:
Just look at how people are trying to drastically, and I do mean DRASTICALLY, change the way we live in America.

Jordan wrote:
The want to move back to the stone age is the hysteria.

These two statements seem somewhat related to the behavior described in, perhaps encouraged by:

Jordan wrote:
Unfortunately there are still a lot of people out there that believe everything the news tells them.

All forms of information presented to us (on both 'sides') must be considered to be biased to some degree, and in today's environment we must consider intent as well. Use your heads.
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thunderhead
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 7:19 am 
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Doppelganger wrote:
All forms of information presented to us (on both 'sides') must be considered to be biased to some degree

Very true.  There may be a few impartial sources out there, but you generally wont find them in the news.
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gb
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 7:30 am 
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Bedivere wrote:
joker wrote:
I'm glad you were  wrong on  this gb,  as I'm sure you are! I've been liking having a summer that's more like the PNW summers we tended  to get when we moved here in the '90s.

This was the kind of summer I remember from my youth.  I'll take the cooler temps and occasional rain over 90+ degree temps and choking smoke ANY day!

Well, it actually has been a bit warmer this summer than what I remember from "the good old days" especially at night.  High temps may not have been real high this summer, but low temps were well above the averages for lows.

Yes, in terms of cloudiness it was more like the old days, but it still rained less than normal this summer particularly east of the Cascades and in the south and Olympics. Still, there were at least some rains periodically and most of the Cascades stayed moist, and more importantly, we avoided the dreaded upper low moving up from the SW except the one time this summer and it was not completely dried out at that time.

Although we missed really hot weather, it was not exactly cool in the lowlands, just seasonable with the couple 4-5 day stretches of well above normal temperatures. With a lot of cloudy skies at night and with a warmer globe, temperatures in Seattle were still above average - just not ridiculously so.

But with just a couple of exceptions, it was beautiful in the mountains with freezing levels often in the 10,500' to 14,500' range. It was really nice when the freezing levels stayed below 13,000-13,500'. That beat the pants off extended periods with freezing levels from 14,500 to 16,500' that we have seen particularly in the last half decade.

We were very lucky but longer range CPC forecasts consistently had forecast a much warmer and drier summer all along the west coast. This missed particularly in July, but overall it was warmer and drier than normal - I think that is the 1980 to 2010 baseline.
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gb
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 7:35 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
Doppelganger wrote:
All forms of information presented to us (on both 'sides') must be considered to be biased to some degree

Very true.  There may be a few impartial sources out there, but you generally wont find them in the news.

True. Best look at the science rather than opinion. All of the science is on and debated by factual statistics and studies on Skeptical Science. Opinions on that site get run out of town on a rail if not well supported. https://skepticalscience.com
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thunderhead
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 8:43 am 
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gb wrote:
All of the science is on and debated by factual statistics and studies on Skeptical Science.

Rofl.  No.

Taking that site as gospel is almost as bad as trusting a 4 month weather forecast.
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Malachai Constant
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 8:50 am 
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All arguments are biased. There is noting wrong with bias so long as it is supported by fact and scientific research. An argument which is not biased toward fact is worthless. What is objectionable in science is an argument  biased due to an irrelevant factor such as race or politics.

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gb
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 9:42 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
gb wrote:
All of the science is on and debated by factual statistics and studies on Skeptical Science.

Rofl.  No.

Taking that site as gospel is almost as bad as trusting a 4 month weather forecast.

Taking your word for anything climate related is a huge fallacy. You are either uneducated or biased.

https://skepticalscience.com
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thunderhead
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 10:03 am 
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gb wrote:
You are either uneducated or biased.

Says the guy who cries wolf and screams hysterically 4 months before something that doesnt even happen in the slightest.

Lol.

Nuff said.
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joker
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PostTue Sep 10, 2019 11:03 am 
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Get a room you guys

I guess I missed the part where he screamed hysterically about  anything. And yes, I read the quote of his that you posted. And fwiw, making a prediction is not the same as "crying wolf." You  might want to re-read your Aesop - the fable is  about  saying something is currently happening that is not in fact currently happening. It's  not about making  a prediction that doesn't come true (which is rather  common and to be expected with a fair percent of predictions). For sure the low snow part  of his comment was correct and was hardly "crying  wolf."
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thunderhead
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PostWed Sep 11, 2019 7:57 am 
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Its definetly crying wolf to make wrong predictions of climate extremes this often, and this is a smoke thread, not a snow thread.
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gb
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PostWed Sep 11, 2019 10:04 am 
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thunderhead wrote:
Its definetly crying wolf to make wrong predictions of climate extremes this often, and this is a smoke thread, not a snow thread.

Definitely isn't spelled that way. I said "I think". Look up think in a dictionary... huh.gif

You probably don't realize there is a link between snowpack, soil moisture, weather and fires. In spring we had the first two problems and the CPC was forecasting drier and warmer than normal West Coast weather for the entire summer. Ever hear of the CPC?

Eastern Washington near the Cascades (east slopes) was dry enough for fires most of the summer; what was missing simply were the more frequent (last 20) years upper lows or digging troughs that spin up lightning storms into the Cascades. That happened as I recall just twice and there was some rain with the Eastern Washington event - about .2-.3" with the weak system that transited Mt. Adams, the Goat Rocks and continued up the east slope to start the Devore fire. The other event impacted the Olympics (Mt. Dana fire) and a bit of Mt. Rainier. We were just lucky period!

But the bigger issue is why you felt it necessary to dig up a two month old long dead thread so that you could carry out a vendetta of some odd type. You seriously need help, I hope you get some. dizzy.gif
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