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joker
seeker
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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Location: state of confusion |
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joker
seeker
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 Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:09 pm |
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It was a quite pleasant "partly sunny" and somewhat seasonably cool at Red Mountain (Salmon la Sac) on Thursday. No one there but us chickens on that day. It looked like the trail doesn't see a ton of traffic. It was kind of a cool high point, once we figured out which of the high points was actually worth going up and had a trail (more or less) to the old lookout site.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6309 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:16 am |
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| joker wrote: | | It was a quite pleasant "partly sunny" and somewhat seasonably cool at Red Mountain (Salmon la Sac) on Thursday. No one there but us chickens on that day. It looked like the trail doesn't see a ton of traffic. It was kind of a cool high point, once we figured out which of the high points was actually worth going up and had a trail (more or less) to the old lookout site. |
I wasn't that far away - at Rampart Lakes along with about 400 of my "friends". What a popular hike despite the extreme ruggedness of the trail. It was a beautiful, and cool day as a handful have been in September. An Indian summer it is not.
What I have noticed of late is that the pattern has much of the time been similar to what it was last February with cool troughs sliding southward right along the coast. Of course at this time of year Canada is not covered with low to mid level arctic air, so we don't get frigid low elevation temperatures. But, in fact with regards to this flow pattern, the next system midweek slides all the way to Southern California with significant snow possible in the Sierra Nevada.
Here, though, although the jet sags south, the trough and really cool air for this time of year remains over us for a week or so. The Cascades in the north look to get perhaps a foot or more of snow at 6000' roughly with this system, and then in the trough that follows, snow levels giving at least a dusting drop to as low as 3000' a few times. Amazing for September, for it's persistence in duration.
I dug into this a bit farther and went to Howard Sheckter's site at Mammoth Weather https://mammothweather.com/howards-forecast/ as the discussion he provides is well informed and often looks to longer range patterns. He mentions the MJO stuck in phase 1 and suggests an early, good winter for the Sierra Nevada.
I really don't know anything of the MJO other than it happens in the tropics and can have a weather influence even in mid-latitudes. So googling MJO, I get this from NOAA climate - it is interesting:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care
I had long thought I observed that persistence in our weather patterns often seem to last perhaps 3-1/2 weeks. The MJO and it's phases tell a story that seems to jive (within reason) to persistence observations of pattern and why long term forecasts can work with regard to weather trends. Of course, timing and significance of individual systems are not really part of this equation when one looks father out, but the pattern may persist until at some point it doesn't. And apparently this has to do with the passage of MJO waves (as well as other climate drivers).
Anyway, I don't ever recall a fall in which we haven't had a good length period of "Indian summer". This year that may not happen at all. Bummer, as I really live for this time of year and have many trips I would like to do. It looks like mostly day trips. I guess that will have to be OK.
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contour5
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Joined: 16 Jul 2003
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contour5
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Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:40 am |
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It’s a raw deal. I took September off, to do some backpacking trips. So far I’m getting mostly pictures of clouds and fog. Right now, I’m using the car heater to dry out my sleeping bag for the 15th time.
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BigBrunyon
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Joined: 19 Mar 2015
Posts: 1456 | TRs | Pics
Location: the fitness gyms!! |
Gonna be lots of groups out forcin' big trips this fall in the intermittent freezing rain snow showers.
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Roly Poly
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Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 713 | TRs | Pics
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I was wondering how the PCT hikers might be faring. This weather must be hard to keep slogging through.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6309 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:35 pm |
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| Roly Poly wrote: | | I was wondering how the PCT hikers might be faring. This weather must be hard to keep slogging through. |
I actually hiked east of Stevens on the 19th (last Thursday) and we picked up a PCT hiker in Gold Bar and drove him to Stevens Pass. At that time, I gave him a weather preview and suggested that Sunday would be wet - although I mentioned Stevens is pretty far east, that it would likely rain later Monday but that it looked to be warmer (as the GFS then showed) this week than last, but would rain some days. I then warned about what it looked like around the 29th into early October. He said he hoped to be done by then, but since when I met him, the warmer weather - basically right now - is very short lived and the cold weather is coming in a couple of days early. I hope he is doing OK and wish him speed. But Thursday - Thursday night shows a lot of high elevation snow in the North Cascades and then pretty much winter-cold with some snow after. For instance, the top of Mt. Baker may run -10 or -11C late this week. The Canadian Rockies, where I wanted to be, looks to be -16C at 10,000'. Since much of the Rockies is around 7000', that would mean a mid-to upper single digits temperature - not so good for backpacking......
He told me (Mark and I) that September had been pretty lousy and he got very wet early last week; only to dry his gear, and then fall in a creek from a log - hence he hitched to Gold Bar. When asked if he would do it again (the PCT), he said he would keep to shorter hiking and backpacking trips. I think Alex, who was used to bad weather from living on the Central to Southern Oregon Coast, was in his mid to late 20's.
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Tom
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Joined: 15 Dec 2001
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Tom
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Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:17 pm |
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Next week looks promising, just in time for October.
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neek
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Joined: 12 Sep 2011
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neek
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Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:57 pm |
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Yup, I feel a big larch trip coming on next week. There will still be a lot of green but gotta take advantage of the blue skies.
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Schroder
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Joined: 26 Oct 2007
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Location: on the beach |
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Schroder
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Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:31 pm |
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There might be snow at Stevens Pass this weekend
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
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Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:50 pm |
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That's a nice graphic, Schroder.
I have been watching the weather for the past few days (planning a weekend hike). I had been seeing "snow showers" in the mix with light rain. But suddenly it jumped to this weather advisory.
Quote: ...SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE CASCADES OVER THE WEEKEND...
A very cool for September air mass associated with an upper level
low will move over Western Washington beginning late Friday. The
low will remain over the area through the weekend. Snow levels
will lower down to around 5000 feet Friday night. Over the weekend
the snow levels will vary between 4000 and 5000 feet. Scattered
showers in the Cascades will give areas above 4000 feet 2 to 6
inches of new snow by the end of the weekend.
 ~z
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thunderhead
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Toni
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Toni
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Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:14 pm |
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6309 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:03 am |
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| Tom wrote: | | Next week looks promising, just in time for October. |
This system for how cold it is and how much snow it dumps for September is now looking rather ridiculous. Last night's University of Washington model dumps a huge load of snow Friday late, Saturday, and Sunday particularly along the east slope of the Cascades. Check out the Pasayten, Chelan Sawtooth, and vicinity, and the Enchantments. By Sunday morning as much as 16-30" of new snow with the freezing level in these areas plummeting to as low as 2000'.
https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_wa_snowacc+//84/3
Although it sometimes happens that a latter September storm slides down along the east slopes and dumps snow - that is typically above 6000'. This indicates even valley snow in some valleys.
It may get nicer later Monday and Tuesday but clouds look to increase again early Wednesday. This is so much snow it likely will stick around for quite awhile (not so much in the valleys).
The west slope is not hit all that much if the forecasts hold, and the Olympics may escape.
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John Morrow
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Joined: 03 Apr 2007
Posts: 1526 | TRs | Pics
Location: Roslyn |
| gb wrote: | | Tom wrote: | | Next week looks promising, just in time for October. |
This system for how cold it is and how much snow it dumps for September is now looking rather ridiculous. Last night's University of Washington model dumps a huge load of snow Friday late, Saturday, and Sunday particularly along the east slope of the Cascades. Check out the Pasayten, Chelan Sawtooth, and vicinity, and the Enchantments. By Sunday morning as much as 16-30" of new snow with the freezing level in these areas plummeting to as low as 2000'.
https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_wa_snowacc+//84/3
Although it sometimes happens that a latter September storm slides down along the east slopes and dumps snow - that is typically above 6000'. This indicates even valley snow in some valleys.
It may get nicer later Monday and Tuesday but clouds look to increase again early Wednesday. This is so much snow it likely will stick around for quite awhile (not so much in the valleys).
The west slope is not hit all that much if the forecasts hold, and the Olympics may escape. |
That model is crazy! Hard to believe it.
“Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?”-Mary Oliver
“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.”
― MLK Jr.
“Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?”-Mary Oliver
“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.”
― MLK Jr.
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whitebark
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Joined: 08 Jul 2005
Posts: 1864 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
Don't plan a backpack trip to Horseshoe Basin this weekend!
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