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Toni Member
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Posts: 829 | TRs | Pics Location: Issaquah |
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Toni
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Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:03 am
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Just heard Maple Pass can only be done w Snow shoes as there is 4-5' of snow at Maple Pass, this info passed on by grp from yesterday, and it's currently snowing. 6" at TH. So much for seeing the golden larches and blue skies!
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Noheaperture Nohea
Joined: 25 Aug 2018 Posts: 130 | TRs | Pics Location: Issaquah |
Toni wrote: | Just heard Maple Pass can only be done w Snow shoes as there is 4-5' of snow at Maple Pass, this info passed on by grp from yesterday, and it's currently snowing. 6" at TH. So much for seeing the golden larches and blue skies! |
Just was up at the col of black peak and ran maple pass loop yesterday and it’s completely snow free. It was a great day, yesterday. Larches on the other hand seem to have another week or two before the show starts though.
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Toni Member
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Posts: 829 | TRs | Pics Location: Issaquah |
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Toni
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Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:30 am
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Hmmm....WTA advises Snowshoes, at least 2' of snow...and more to come, also freezing temps. Maybe a nicer weather window sometime in early Oct. And since Larches aren't at peak yet.Happy trails all 😊
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CC cascade curmudgeon
Joined: 13 Sep 2006 Posts: 647 | TRs | Pics
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CC
cascade curmudgeon
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Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:40 pm
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First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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Bedivere Why Do Witches Burn?
Joined: 25 Jul 2008 Posts: 7464 | TRs | Pics Location: The Hermitage |
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Bedivere
Why Do Witches Burn?
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Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:23 pm
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Toni wrote: | Hmmm....WTA advises Snowshoes, at least 2' of snow.. |
Where are you seeing this? I just looked at WTA.org and the most recent trip report is from 5 days ago.
2 FEET of snow? No way.
Washington pass area weather stations don't show temps cold enough for that...
https://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/washingtonpass/now/
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:38 am
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The University of Washington model from last night is sticking to it's story. The 48 hour snowfall forecast through Sunday evening:
That's right, three feet in the Pasayten. It also forecasts 22 degree temperatures at 5000' in areas east of the crest for much of Sunday.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:43 am
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It's really a crying shame as the fall colors the last couple of days were like something I've only seen 3-4 times in my life and the blueberries the best in ten years or so. All of those blueberries going to waste. I picked some the day before yesterday but they were laden with water droplets and so chilly you would have had to have picked with gloves yesterday......
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RumiDude Marmota olympus
Joined: 26 Jul 2009 Posts: 3589 | TRs | Pics Location: Port Angeles |
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RumiDude
Marmota olympus
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:11 am
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Strange!
I have looked at several forecasts for Hart's Pass and none of them indicate any snow acumulation of more than 5" to 7". Here is the current NOAA forecast for Hart's Pass.
That shows at the most 6.5" total snow accumulation over the next three days. It's going to be cold (high 27* low 20* and windy (14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph), especially Saturday and Sunday. Harts Pass is at about 6400" elevation.
I checked at Jim Pass, Holman Pass Windy pass, the peak above Hopkins Lake (the highest point on the WA PCT) with all similar forecasts, temperature varying according to elevation. So it is hard to fathom 4' to 5' of snow. I know snow forecasts are an iffy thing, but ...
Rumi
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:36 am
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RumiDude wrote: | Strange!
I have looked at several forecasts for Hart's Pass and none of them indicate any snow acumulation of more than 5" to 7". Here is the current NOAA forecast for Hart's Pass.
That shows at the most 6.5" total snow accumulation over the next three days. It's going to be cold (high 27* low 20* and windy (14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph), especially Saturday and Sunday. Harts Pass is at about 6400" elevation.
I checked at Jim Pass, Holman Pass Windy pass, the peak above Hopkins Lake (the highest point on the WA PCT) with all similar forecasts, temperature varying according to elevation. So it is hard to fathom 4' to 5' of snow. I know snow forecasts are an iffy thing, but ...
Rumi |
NOAA would use the UW model for mountain forecasts along with some guesswork. The low pressure transits east of the crest as we go through the weekend and apparently the sharp uplift is creating Orographic effects in certain areas. The Pasayten bulls-eye is centered on 120 W longitude and tapers rapidly to the west. You would have to look at map but I would guess Hart's Pass is well west of that.
The fact that the UW model came up with the same solution 24 hours apart makes it seem likely this will happen within reason (precise boundaries and snowfalls).
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1519 | TRs | Pics
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Mission ridge powder run? Theres no base of course but if theres 3 feet of new by sunday evening the weeded portions of the trails could be good?
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:42 pm
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thunderhead wrote: | Mission ridge powder run? Theres no base of course but if theres 3 feet of new by sunday evening the weeded portions of the trails could be good? |
I think it was 1971, we skied 24-56" of powder snow at Mt. Baker on September 25th. I haven't seen anything like it since.....until maybe now. I know the 56" because that was how long my poles were at the time.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6308 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:45 pm
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iron Member
Joined: 10 Aug 2008 Posts: 6392 | TRs | Pics Location: southeast kootenays |
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iron
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:46 pm
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Toni Member
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Posts: 829 | TRs | Pics Location: Issaquah |
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Toni
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:53 pm
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Looking north from Issaquah, it's pretty dark that way❄❄!
So with all the forecast of snow thru Sunday and cold temps up Washington Pass way...decided to cancel trip Sunday to hike Maple Pass on Monday. It can wait. I'll hunker down and watch the Seahawks here at home....I just worry about the PCT thru hiker's!
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Noheaperture Nohea
Joined: 25 Aug 2018 Posts: 130 | TRs | Pics Location: Issaquah |
Damn, I was really hoping that science would be wrong on this one... thanks a lot, God.
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