Forum Index > Trail Talk > Extended Weather Models Indicate a quite cool and wet September.
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Toni
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PostThu Sep 26, 2019 10:03 am 
Just heard Maple Pass can only be done w Snow shoes as there is 4-5' of snow at Maple Pass, this info passed on by grp from yesterday, and it's currently snowing. 6" at TH. So much for seeing the golden larches and blue skies!

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Noheaperture
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PostThu Sep 26, 2019 10:13 am 
Toni wrote:
Just heard Maple Pass can only be done w Snow shoes as there is 4-5' of snow at Maple Pass, this info passed on by grp from yesterday, and it's currently snowing. 6" at TH. So much for seeing the golden larches and blue skies!
Just was up at the col of black peak and ran maple pass loop yesterday and it’s completely snow free. It was a great day, yesterday. Larches on the other hand seem to have another week or two before the show starts though.

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Toni
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PostThu Sep 26, 2019 10:30 am 
Hmmm....WTA advises Snowshoes, at least 2' of snow...and more to come, also freezing temps. Maybe a nicer weather window sometime in early Oct. And since Larches aren't at peak yet.Happy trails all 😊

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CC
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PostThu Sep 26, 2019 1:40 pm 
MtnGoat wrote:
Getting out to Alaska, so I'm cheating.
There goes my carbon budget! tongue.gif And my diet. eek.gif
Let me guess: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-24/a-week-at-sea-with-the-libertarians-of-the-anti-krugman-cruise

First your legs go, then you lose your reflexes, then you lose your friends. Willy Pep
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Bedivere
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PostThu Sep 26, 2019 7:23 pm 
Toni wrote:
Hmmm....WTA advises Snowshoes, at least 2' of snow..
Where are you seeing this? I just looked at WTA.org and the most recent trip report is from 5 days ago. 2 FEET of snow? No way. Washington pass area weather stations don't show temps cold enough for that... https://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/washingtonpass/now/

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gb
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 7:38 am 
The University of Washington model from last night is sticking to it's story. The 48 hour snowfall forecast through Sunday evening:
That's right, three feet in the Pasayten. It also forecasts 22 degree temperatures at 5000' in areas east of the crest for much of Sunday.

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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 7:43 am 
It's really a crying shame as the fall colors the last couple of days were like something I've only seen 3-4 times in my life and the blueberries the best in ten years or so. All of those blueberries going to waste. I picked some the day before yesterday but they were laden with water droplets and so chilly you would have had to have picked with gloves yesterday...... frown.gif

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RumiDude
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 9:11 am 
Strange! I have looked at several forecasts for Hart's Pass and none of them indicate any snow acumulation of more than 5" to 7". Here is the current NOAA forecast for Hart's Pass. That shows at the most 6.5" total snow accumulation over the next three days. It's going to be cold (high 27* low 20* and windy (14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph), especially Saturday and Sunday. Harts Pass is at about 6400" elevation. I checked at Jim Pass, Holman Pass Windy pass, the peak above Hopkins Lake (the highest point on the WA PCT) with all similar forecasts, temperature varying according to elevation. So it is hard to fathom 4' to 5' of snow. I know snow forecasts are an iffy thing, but ... Rumi

"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
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gb
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 9:36 am 
RumiDude wrote:
Strange! I have looked at several forecasts for Hart's Pass and none of them indicate any snow acumulation of more than 5" to 7". Here is the current NOAA forecast for Hart's Pass. That shows at the most 6.5" total snow accumulation over the next three days. It's going to be cold (high 27* low 20* and windy (14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph), especially Saturday and Sunday. Harts Pass is at about 6400" elevation. I checked at Jim Pass, Holman Pass Windy pass, the peak above Hopkins Lake (the highest point on the WA PCT) with all similar forecasts, temperature varying according to elevation. So it is hard to fathom 4' to 5' of snow. I know snow forecasts are an iffy thing, but ... Rumi
NOAA would use the UW model for mountain forecasts along with some guesswork. The low pressure transits east of the crest as we go through the weekend and apparently the sharp uplift is creating Orographic effects in certain areas. The Pasayten bulls-eye is centered on 120 W longitude and tapers rapidly to the west. You would have to look at map but I would guess Hart's Pass is well west of that. The fact that the UW model came up with the same solution 24 hours apart makes it seem likely this will happen within reason (precise boundaries and snowfalls).

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thunderhead
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 10:36 am 
Mission ridge powder run? Theres no base of course but if theres 3 feet of new by sunday evening the weeded portions of the trails could be good?

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gb
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 3:42 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
Mission ridge powder run? Theres no base of course but if theres 3 feet of new by sunday evening the weeded portions of the trails could be good?
I think it was 1971, we skied 24-56" of powder snow at Mt. Baker on September 25th. I haven't seen anything like it since.....until maybe now. I know the 56" because that was how long my poles were at the time.

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gb
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 3:45 pm 
If anyone wants to see why this is all happening on the east side, the Windy site at 800mb (6400') gives a great illustration. Very strong winds from the ENE at that elevation for a few days with strong orographic lift, doubtless. https://www.windy.com/?gfs,800h,2019-09-30-03,44.875,-122.388,7

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iron
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 3:46 pm 
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Toni
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 3:53 pm 
Looking north from Issaquah, it's pretty dark that way❄❄! So with all the forecast of snow thru Sunday and cold temps up Washington Pass way...decided to cancel trip Sunday to hike Maple Pass on Monday. It can wait. I'll hunker down and watch the Seahawks here at home....I just worry about the PCT thru hiker's!

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Noheaperture
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PostFri Sep 27, 2019 5:17 pm 
iron wrote:
snowing at stevens right now: https://iloveseattle.org/sog/washington-state-webcams.asp#loaded
Damn, I was really hoping that science would be wrong on this one... thanks a lot, God.

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