Forum Index > Trail Talk > Extended Weather Models Indicate a quite cool and wet September.
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gb
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PostSun Sep 08, 2019 6:09 am 
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I had looked yesterday out to the 22nd or so and was surprised how much cool, wet weather seemed to dominate the period (as in earlier runs warmer weather tended to dominate). Fair weather periods looked relatively short and infrequent. But the GFS I look at has in the past couple of months generally overstated warmer periods farther out and at the same time has tended to overstate the significance of periods of wet weather.

Nonetheless, here is the NWS Discussion this morning:

Quote:
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Extended models in good

agreement with the upper level low moving east and weakening

Tuesday night. Weak upper level ridge moving over the area

Wednesday will be in a race with a weak shortwave moving over the

top of the ridge in the afternoon to see which one will prevail.

00z models squeezing out a couple hundredths with the shortwave

so will have to put some slight chance pops in the forecast for

Wednesday afternoon. Model consistency comes to an end Thursday

with the GFS bringing a front through the area Thursday night

while the ECMWF leaves the front offshore until Friday morning.

Ensembles from both models not much help with little variation

from the operational runs. Will only have pops on the coast for

Thursday but with the system approaching will word the cloud cover

as partly sunny for the interior. Models in better agreement with

yet another system for Saturday moving down from the northwest.

End of the extended run starting to look more and more like fall.

Most of the record highs for the latter half of September in

Seattle are in the 80s ( with one day in the 70s ). If the model

trends continue the 81 on September 3rd could be the last day in

the 80s for Seattle this year. Felton
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drm
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PostSun Sep 08, 2019 7:55 am 
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And yet there is a hot Blob of water in the Pacific like we had in 2015. I wonder if the models include that factor. But maybe that's longer term that what you quoted. The 2015 marine heat wave was much blamed for that years' almost nonexistent winter.
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gb
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 5:26 am 
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drm wrote:
And yet there is a hot Blob of water in the Pacific like we had in 2015. I wonder if the models include that factor. But maybe that's longer term that what you quoted. The 2015 marine heat wave was much blamed for that years' almost nonexistent winter.

Maybe that blob of warm water is why models in the extended period are consistently over forecasting the return of much above normal temperatures, which is really not happening when you finally get to that time frame. They have also for several months over forecast wet weather late in the forecast period, and so far that has not happened, but here we go now.

Two systems, the Sunday system and one near midweek both appear to stall and tap into tropical moisture. The NWS forecaster this morning says that record rainfall is possible Sunday in the area - of course record daily rainfall in September is still not a mid-later fall deluge.

Quote:
Ridge flattening out tonight with a cold front slowly moving

southeast on Saturday. Cold upper level trough behind the front

digging south with the front beginning to tap into some sub

tropical moisture Saturday afternoon. Best chances for rain

Saturday northwest of about a Hoquiam to Bellingham line. Lows

tonight in the 50s. Highs on Saturday in the 60s.



Upper level trough offshore continuing to dig south Saturday night

into Sunday morning with the cold front becoming more north south

oriented and slowing down to a crawl. Front will still be tapping

into some sub tropical moisture forming a weak atmospheric river

aimed at Western Washington. Front moving south of the area

late Sunday. There is a chance for record rainfall amounts on

Sunday ( some records Seattle 0.69 inches set in 1959, Olympia

1.00 inches set in 1955, Hoquiam 0.91 inches set in 1997 and

Quillayute 1.10 inches set in 2002 ). Lows Saturday night in the

mid and upper 50s. Highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 60s.



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Models in good agreement

Monday with the upper level trough moving inland. Jet stream well

south into Northern California but with the trough overhead will

have to keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast. Another

system moving into the area from the northwest arriving on

Tuesday. Have increased the pops to likely or higher followed by

yet another cool upper level trough with the jet south of Western

Washington Wednesday keeping showers in the forecast. Trough

shifting inland on Thursday. 00z model runs a little wetter than

previous runs on Thursday. For now will keep the forecast dry but

if the model trends continue look for a chance of showers to be

added to the forecast on Thursday. Felton

If the models bear fruit, freezing levels until about the 24th or 25th don't look to get out of the 7000' to 9000' range here hardly at all with mediocre weather at best. Beyond that it again forecasts a return to above normal temperatures. But?

In that time frame and through the end of the month things really get weird with a super cold wave transiting along and just north of the border. If that bears fruit, the freezing level could drop to sea level in those areas from about the Great lakes and eastward - in September?

In the next week to ten days one might be able to have a decent trip in Wyoming (or Colorado) otherwise, no so much. California doesn't look very good.
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John Morrow
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 5:41 am 
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"atmospheric river"

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“Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?”-Mary Oliver

“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.”
― MLK Jr.
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Backpacker Joe
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 6:46 am 
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This has been the coolest summer since I moved to Cle Elum Ten years ago.  Go climate change............

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"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."

— Abraham Lincoln
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Schenk
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 7:31 am 
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Well there you go: As goes Cle Elum, so goes the entire Earth.  lol.gif

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Nature exists with a stark indifference to humans' situation.
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JonnyQuest
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 8:32 am 
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Wait, I thought my hot flashes last night were indicative of massive global warming!
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BigBrunyon
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 10:50 am 
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Backpacker Joe wrote:
This has been the coolest summer since I moved to Cle Elum Ten years ago.  Go climate change............

The temp has raised about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 6am this morning!!! It's now about noon. In a serious panic!! Global warming is hitting!! No time to even do the math!! 5 degrees every 6 hours!? Gon' be dead in no time!!!

Weird how our logic is the same but experiences differ! Maybe the weather isn't the same everywhere on earth

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MtnGoat
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 10:58 am 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
The temp has raised about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 6am this morning!!! It's now about noon. In a serious panic!! Global warming is hitting!! No time to even do the math!! 5 degrees every 6 hours!? Gon' be dead in no time!!!

Weird how our logic is the same but experiences differ! Maybe the weather isn't the same everywhere on earth

If current trends continue.... wink.gif

It's an emergency! No time to question !

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Kim Brown
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 11:36 am 
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Stop mocking, and return to the subject.

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" I'm really happy about this! … I have very strong good and horrible memories up there."  – oldgranola, NWH’s outdoors advocate.
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Cyclopath
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 12:43 pm 
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I guess the forum rules don't apply to deniers.
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MtnGoat
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 1:18 pm 
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It's true, I deny 2+2=5. Denial of non truths is a positive.

As we can see, forum rules don't apply to ad hominims.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Tom
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 1:22 pm 
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Yeah, we get it, AGW is a non-truth.  Subject is weather, not AGW.
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gb
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 6:38 pm 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
Backpacker Joe wrote:
This has been the coolest summer since I moved to Cle Elum Ten years ago.  Go climate change............

The temp has raised about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 6am this morning!!! It's now about noon. In a serious panic!! Global warming is hitting!! No time to even do the math!! 5 degrees every 6 hours!? Gon' be dead in no time!!!

Weird how our logic is the same but experiences differ! Maybe the weather isn't the same everywhere on earth

Apparently you don't go outdoors. This thread is about the possibilities for trip planning and what it looks like. You run off in some bizarre tangent. But it is understandable you don't pay attention to weather models or forecasts by NWS forecasters - your ignorance here is obvious.
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gb
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PostFri Sep 13, 2019 6:41 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
It's true, 2+2=5. Denial of non truths is a positive.

As we can see, forum rules don't apply to ad hominims.

What do you see in current weather models, goat? With your math above that 2+2 =5 I am not surprised you are clueless.
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Forum Index > Trail Talk > Extended Weather Models Indicate a quite cool and wet September.
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