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AuroraSky
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PostThu Oct 24, 2019 8:50 am 
pipedream wrote:
Coming by to make an observation in how well this situation has been handled. No hashtags & social media movement. Minimal, if any, speculation about possibilities. Just cold, hard & very harsh facts with timely updates. Those affected have not interfered with professional SAR operations and have had very good interactions with the local news, giving them little to nothing to sensationalize.

Thanks for handling this sensibly, privately & respectfully. I hope for the best.

Yes, have noticed this as well. So much grace.

I hope there is closure soon. Wishing the family and SAR all the best.

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Downhill
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PostFri Oct 25, 2019 7:52 am 
No updates in the news in the last 2 days.  Props to SAR and others involved.  Wishing for closure and peace for family and friends.  A heartbreaking situation.

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Heydawg30
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PostFri Oct 25, 2019 9:09 am 
Thank you. I'm happy to give updates to hiking community. Search is postponed friday due to weather and most aggressive search sat. The SAR team is really going above and beyond. We are so greatful. Let's hope we have success this weekend.

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camut
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PostSat Oct 26, 2019 6:07 am 
Haley, thank you for keeping us updated on the search for Rachel.  Hopefully the better weather forecast for the next several days will give SAR the break they need to be able to find her.

This is a good reminder, if anyone here hasn't made a donation to SAR recently, now would be a good time!

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Schroder
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PostSun Oct 27, 2019 8:44 am 
3 teams are out searching today, Sunday 10/27.  The weather is completely clear.

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Damian
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PostSun Oct 27, 2019 4:56 pm 
GranolaGirl participated in today’s search. She just reported- no luck.

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Backpacker Joe
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Backpacker Joe
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PostSun Oct 27, 2019 5:01 pm 
Thanks for the update.  I know that area.  Where could this young woman be?

--------------
"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."

— Abraham Lincoln
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Michael Lewis
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PostSun Oct 27, 2019 8:32 pm 
Have they searched Hidden Lake Peak, Sibley Peak or Hidden Lake itself? If the trail was buried under snow there's no guarantee she used it. From my own experience it's easier to follow the east fork and park boundary in snowy conditions. I don't mean to speculate or undermine search efforts, I'm just wondering if this has already been ruled out. Would it be helpful to ask SAR?

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fourteen410
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PostSun Oct 27, 2019 10:41 pm 
I'm wondering if there was any indication that she made it to the lookout. If so, she might have run into trouble on the way down instead of up. As I understand it, she was last seen about 3 miles up the trail by a couple that was heading down. That only leaves another half mile - mile to the lookout. Granted, it would be easy to get off track in that last part of the trail with poor visibility.

It sounds like SAR is narrowing in on some potential spots - hope they find her soon.

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Schroder
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PostMon Oct 28, 2019 7:42 am 
The latest from Rachel's mother:

Quote:
With heavy hearts we report that the search & rescue attempts have now changed to the status of recovery only. Despite multiple efforts to rescue Rachel off the mountain, none of the SAR teams were able to locate her. Their determination and dedication never wavered. They employed EVERY resource available to them and Marblemount Ranger Station will send a helicopter up again Wednesday to search the forecasted snow melt above the tree line. We thank the Skagit County Sheriff’s Department for handling our family with compassion.

Love to all those who have been following our story. Your words of hope and encouragement are still essential to help our families cope with this next phase of our lives.

SAR had a helo searching the entire ridge and down to the lake for several days in clear weather. Search teams checked along the tree line for any sign of her. There was no sign she had been to the lookout. There had been a lot of avalanche activity off the ridge. She was last seen at 6000 ft on the trail.

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pula58
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PostMon Oct 28, 2019 10:57 am 
I hope the good weather helps the SAR people find her.

Was it snowing during Rachel's hike in, or did the snow start later that night?

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Bernardo
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PostMon Oct 28, 2019 4:46 pm 
So sorry to hear this.  We were all hoping for a miracle.  Thanks SAR.  Be safe.

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bk
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PostTue Oct 29, 2019 4:46 am 
My condolences to Rachel's family and friends.
- - - - -
To pula58: The hike started Thu. Oct. 17th.

Here are some historical forecasts for that area for Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri (the hike was on Thu.). It's easy to get lost in the weeds with all of these forecast data, and have it all turn out to be wrong. Someone w/boots on the ground could give better info.

This is historical point-location NOAA forecast data for about one-mile west of Hidden Lake Peak . . . at 48.5N, 121.22W. . . . NOAA claims 4,265 ft. but Google Maps says about 4,700 ft. So split the difference and say 4,500 ft.) (My computer regularly queries some WA state locations for point-forecasts, and this is one of 'em.)

Keep in mind that temperatures drop about 3F for every 1,000-feet gained in elevation, as a rule of thumb.
(So when this forecast says rain at 4,500 ft and 37F . . . go 1,000 ft. higher, at 5,500, that's closer to snow and . . . and probably definite snow near the ridge/peak at 6,500 ft, with maybe 31 F.)


Another rule of thumb: 1 inch or rain = 10 inches of snow.
So even though this forecast is for 4,500 ft or so, higher up on the ridge, it may have been heavily loading with snow.

And, as ever, keep in mind that forecasts can be meaningless.

Forecast at 2 AM-ish on Tue. Oct. 15th (early Tue.) at 48.5N, 121.22W, around 4,500 ft:
No precip. until 4 PM. (Then a 50% chance of about 0.25-inches of rain through 4 AM Wed. morn.). Temps. a steady 43F all day, dropping to 38F in the Wed AM. Winds 8 to 10 mph from the south during the day; shifting to 13 mph from the east at 7PM (until 7 AM Wed)

Forecast at 2 AM-ish on Wed. Oct. 16th (early Wed.) at 48.5N, 121.22W, around 4,500 ft:
Stronger winds from the south ~17 mph, from ~2AM (Wed) to 7 PM (Wed). Gusts up to ~23 mph. Light rain 2 AM to 5 AM. Picking up to close to an inch of rain 5 AM through 7 PM (Wed). (That may be 10-inches of snow, higher up.) Temps. steady around 39F for this 24-hour period (2 AM to 2 AM). 90% cloud cover.

Forecast at 2 AM-ish on Thu. Oct. 17th (early that Thu.) at 48.5N, 121.22W, around 4,500 ft:
100% chance of rain throughout the day, up to 1-inch of rain over the day. (So, maybe 10 inches of snow up higher?)
15 mph winds from the north all day (20 mph gusts)
Temperatures were to be 37 F all day. 80% cloud cover.

Forecast at 2 AM-ish on Fri. Oct. 18th (early Fri.) at 48.5N, 121.22W, around 4,500 ft:
Winds taper to light- or no-wind all day. About 8 inches of snow forecast spread gradually from 2 AM Fri. to 2 AM Sat. Temps. a steady 32 to 34F during that time. 80% cloud cover.

Forecast at 2 AM-ish on Sat. Oct. 19th (early Sat.) at 48.5N, 121.22W, around 4,500 ft:
Six inches of snow spread throughout the day (2 AM Sat. to 2 AM Sun). Steady 32F. Light winds, 7 mph, from the west. 80% cloud cover.
- - - - - - -
Again, all of these readings were estimates for 4,500 ft-ish, about a mile west of the summit, down towards the valley, as the crow flies. So it was probably snowing above that level (at 10 inches snow per 1-inch rain). And, as forecasts go, it could all be hugely off.

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pula58
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PostWed Oct 30, 2019 6:21 am 
Looks like Thursday the 17th was windy, wet and cold. That kind of weather is insidiously dangerous.

With this continuing clear weather I hope they find her.

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Schroder
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PostWed Oct 30, 2019 4:09 pm 
A helicopter search today yielded nothing.

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