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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Apr 06, 2020 6:22 pm 

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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Apr 06, 2020 6:54 pm 
So where do you think the CCC2020 trails should go?

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zephyr
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zephyr
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PostMon Apr 06, 2020 9:09 pm 
altasnob wrote:
The Hong Kong doctor, like all experts, promotes extensive testing to give us the best picture of how many are affected and at what rate they are infecting others. We are not going to be able to eliminate the virus (without a vaccine) so until a vaccine is available, the government should focus on keeping the R-naught number to 1 (R-naught refers to the average number of people to whom an infected person passes on the virus in a population with no pre-existing immunity). With an R number below 1, the virus will, in theory, die off (not realistically possible to get this). With an R above 1, the virus will grow exponentially. So an R of 1 is a happy medium where we don't let the virus grow exponentially, but we don't kill our economy trying to kill off the virus (which we couldn't do even if we tried).
altasnob, I read the opinion piece. It was excellent, a bit over my head in places, but still accessible. I had read about the R naught recently in another blog, posting, or article. Can't remember. But you have an excellent grasp of this IMO. Your several paragraph synopsis makes it even clearer to me. So-- Thank-you very much. There's a lot to digest here--in this subject--a fair amount of complexity that I doubt our federal leadership can be aware of, but for a few. What I am trying to say is that what it would take to enact these policies would be smart, focused people in charge. Could this happen across the U.S. with all the multiple viewpoints and agendas? I appreciate what you said at the end of that statement:
altasnob wrote:
So for the next 12-24 months I see a period where we relax the brakes, and then have to reapply the brakes as needed to keep the health care system operational. This would be different in every single community in the US. The author emphasizes testing and focusing on the R number as the way to make the decisions on when to apply the brakes, and how forcefully.
I wonder how many decision-makers are aware of these ideas and if they are up to this challenge. Thanks again for posting the original article. I had seen it pop up on various Twitters, but didn't explore it. I have been pretty convinced that social distancing was the only way to go until a vaccine or a therapy were discovered. ~z

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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Apr 06, 2020 9:22 pm 
A friend of mine got her nursing license a year ago. She's in Alaska. They haven't been hit very hard yet. She's been caring for two COVID patients who died in the hospital. Because all non urgent surgeries are down, and because AK is behind schedule on this virus, they've cut her hours by 70%, which is forcing her to seek a new job. She says this is the pattern in several states that don't have Washington's numbers yet.

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jinx'sboy
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PostMon Apr 06, 2020 9:36 pm 
Talked to a friend on the East Coast today. He has niece who is an RN, but has been out of the work force for a few years with 2 small kids. Now thinking to start again, she’s been offered $150/hr - for all the hours she wants to work - from several NYC hospitals.

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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostMon Apr 06, 2020 10:18 pm 
In our state, the research suggests Washington hit its peak COVID-19 hospital resource date April 2. In other words, our need for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators since that date has declined from earlier modeling forecasts, while the demand on our healthcare system and staff is still great, the modeling likely helps to explain, at least in part why Governor Jay Inslee announced over the weekend that Washington would return 400 ventilators to the federal stockpile for other states who need them. https://komonews.com/amp/news/coronavirus/new-models-show-social-distancing-making-positive-impact-in-washington-state

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Chief Joseph
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 3:42 pm 
I think that closing trailheads are ridiculous enough, but the closing of boat launches seems beyond the limits of sanity. They are afraid of people spreading the disease from using the restroom I suppose? Still, being out in the fresh air and exercising is good for the immune system as well as mental health, so the restrictions to me seem counter-intuitive.

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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Randito
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 6:26 pm 
Chief Joseph wrote:
but the closing of boat launches seems beyond the limits of sanity
The WDFW closed fishing and boat launches state wide because of observed problems with social distancing and vandalism occurring at WDFW sites. Various idiots decided that under the "stay home, stay healthy" directive was a great time to go fishing and lined up side by side along lake shores and river banks. WDFW outhouses were raised for TP and hand sanitizer. When the outhouses were locked, people just sh## on the ground surrounding the outhouses. One nimrod tried drag a concrete outhouse with their truck, etc, etc. When a few knuckleheads decide these difficult times are "festival of lawlessness" land managers need to take steps to protect their facilities.

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Bernardo
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 8:43 pm 
People are going to die and suffer catastrophically because of the closure. Millions of people have lost their jobs. Some of those people will commit suicide. Almost all of them will suffer lifetime earnings losses often very substantial. Millions will move permanently down the social scale. There will be alcohol and substance abuse, there will be domestic violence, there will be children who don’t have the resources to stay in school or maximize their chances of getting an advanced education. The economic suffering will be immense and will reverberate through our society for years to come. All you folks worried about corona virus, can you tell me how many people died in Washington State in March 2020 versus March 2019? If you can’t answer that basic question, I question the morality of your telling us to shut down the economy. I see those who want to shut down the economy as privileged individuals unconcerned about the greater good of society. Your scared about your own health, you’ve got money, and you don’t care what happens to the poor or less secure. What moral right do you have to tell others how to live to maximize your welfare. And you folks talking about herd culling if people gather, have you looked at the statistics? We could practice no social distancing at all, and the losses would be minimal from a herd perspective. The herd would be fine with business as usual. It’s the privileged who would not do so well because some of them would fall (the wealthy tend to be old). But since they have all the power, we don’t think about the herd, we cater to the concerns of the elite.

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Riverside Laker
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 8:43 pm 
Paris closed down outdoor exercise, daytime only. Now I feel lucky.

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xman_reborn
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 8:58 pm 
Bernardo - Praise it, brother! Get this economy going!

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Tom
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 9:01 pm 
Bernardo, check out one of the Bill Gates interviews. We either take our economic pain now or later. If we take it now it provides time to keep things manageable enough until widespread testing / quarantine can limit the spread, at which point business can start to go back to normal, but not really until there is a vaccine. Just paraphrasing, I'm sure there are more nuances.

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altasnob
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 9:24 pm 
I don't really think we have a choice. Is there a country on earth that is not practicing social distancing and voluntarily letting the virus rip through their community? People cite Sweden but as I understand it, they are voluntarily practicing social distancing. Also, the death numbers in Sweden have recently started to increase much faster than the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden is not as far along the curve as other European nations, so we need to check back after a couple weeks. If Sweden continues to have no lock down, and keeps their death numbers manageable, maybe other countries can follow their lead. But no country wants to to be the guinea pig. The IHME model now includes some European nations. Note that UK, which briefly toyed with the idea of "taking it on the chin" before imposing lock downs, is predicted to have more deaths than Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined, and not a whole lot less than the US (despite having 20% the population as the US).

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xman_reborn
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 9:28 pm 
Come on, people. America is NOT Sweden.

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Jake Neiffer
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PostTue Apr 07, 2020 9:47 pm 
Bernardo- I’ve had a lot of the same thoughts, but don’t know. It seems like there should be a middle ground between shelter in place and business as usual. The social distancing guidelines seem somewhat arbitrary. The grocery stores were packed to the gills the last time I went. Although its been 2 weeks since I've been.

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