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xman_reborn
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 4:51 pm 
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Friend of the family works for a definite "unessential" business in Seattle. Manager there is saying if people can go shopping for food, they should be able to go to work. Fear is that he will force workers to go into work (not a WFH option for some).

Anyone know a phone number/URL to report businesses that are not complying?

Not cool. Also, not a good way to build loyalty among your employees.

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Joey
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 5:45 pm 
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Sister-in-law in Wisconsin has lots of symptoms except the high fever one.
She was able to get tested.
Takes 2 days (of being sick and wondering) for results.
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zephyr
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 5:57 pm 
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Here's a great article in The Atlantic for the readers here.  A bit long, but excellent writing and a deep perspective on the outbreak.  Trigger warning:  There is some criticism of how things have been handled at the top, but that's only incidental to set up the scenarios and why things are happening as they are.  (So don't read it if you are happy with how things are going.) This article is mainly focused on explaining clearly what's happening and how it might play out over the months and the years.  It's sober, but not alarmist.  Remember "The more you learn the less you fear."

The article is from yesterday and titled "How the Pandemic Will End"

Quote:  “No matter what, a virus [like SARS-CoV-2] was going to test the resilience of even the most well-equipped health systems,” says Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious-diseases physician at the Boston University School of Medicine. More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.
....
By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. This is the worst-case scenario. To avert it, four things need to happen—and quickly.
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The first and most important is to rapidly produce masks, gloves, and other personal protective equipment.
...
This agency can also coordinate the second pressing need: a massive rollout of COVID-19 tests.
...
These measures will take time, during which the pandemic will either accelerate beyond the capacity of the health system or slow to containable levels. Its course—and the nation’s fate—now depends on the third need, which is social distancing. Think of it this way: There are now only two groups of Americans. Group A includes everyone involved in the medical response, whether that’s treating patients, running tests, or manufacturing supplies. Group B includes everyone else, and their job is to buy Group A more time. Group B must now “flatten the curve” by physically isolating themselves from other people to cut off chains of transmission.
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In these moments, when the good of all hinges on the sacrifices of many, clear coordination matters—the fourth urgent need.
...
Okay, that's plenty.  The Endgame and Aftermath are definitely worth ready.


~z
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cdestroyer
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 6:15 pm 
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montana governor has issued a stay at home order.
the patient count is going up fastest in gallatin county/bozeman area..
total for mt is 94 and counting
most everything is closed
only essentials allowed
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MtnGoat
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 6:37 pm 
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Tell me again why we are not following the standard procedure for all previous issues like this, which is trace the social chains and isolate only those in the contact circles, and so on?

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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contour5
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 7:03 pm 
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standard procedure

For a pandemic, with a +/- 5% death rate?
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reststep
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
Tell me again why we are not following the standard procedure for all previous issues like this, which is trace the social chains and isolate only those in the contact circles, and so on?

I don't know. I think in order to do that you would have to know who is infected and with this issue in many cases it seems they do not.

The following quote is from the article in the Atlantic.

Quote:
More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms.


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"The mountains are calling and I must go." - John Muir
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Bosterson
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 7:54 pm 
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reststep wrote:
MtnGoat wrote:
Tell me again why we are not following the standard procedure for all previous issues like this, which is trace the social chains and isolate only those in the contact circles, and so on?

I think in order to that you would have to know who is infected and with this issue in many cases it seems they do not.

Exactly. For that strategy to work we'd have to test most everyone - not just people with symptoms, but even healthy people, to screen out the asymptomatic carriers. That's what Korea did. Even currently the US is not even close to doing that. Basically only people going onto ventilators are getting tested because we don't have enough tests available, for a variety of reasons. I have a friend who has a cough and has had extreme fatigue since last week, and their doctor said they probably are infected but they can't get tested without more serious symptoms, so they just have to wait for it to get better or worse.

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We must move forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!
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Jake Neiffer
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 7:57 pm 
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Dr Birx discussing adjustment to models (Imperial College revised UK deaths from half a million to 20K)

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jinx'sboy
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 9:24 pm 
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Interesting piece in the Guardian about a study from Oxford University which posits that infection rates might be higher than ‘normal’ and death rates lower.  The opinion piece has links to the the Oxford study, etc...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/26/virus-infection-data-coronavirus-modelling
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zephyr
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 9:49 pm 
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zephyr wrote:
Here's a video on shopping and cleaning groceries.  Also he talks about take out food.  I give it a "pretty good" rating.  I have questions.

It's been recommended that the previously posted video was alarmist or overkill. So I am taking it down.   I do have a concern about bringing the virus inside.  So if anything more evidence-based shows up, Ill consider posting that instead.  Thanks, Bosterson.    ~z

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Cyclopath
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:00 pm 
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MtnGoat wrote:
Tell me again why we are not following the standard procedure for all previous issues like this, which is trace the social chains and isolate only those in the contact circles, and so on?

Because we have 80,000 known cases.  What you're suggesting could have worked early on, but at that point official policy was that "you can go to work" if you have COVID-19, and that it will "miraculously" disappear when it gets warm.  And now here we are.
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zephyr
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:01 pm 
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I wish I was able to embed this video.  But here is a link from NBC.  This is Louisiana Gov. Edwards saying that if the coronavirus case curve isn’t flattened, New Orleans will exhaust ventilator capacity by April 2 and bedspace by April 7:

Edit added.

Note:  Earlier I had posted a link to NBC Twitter feed of a video news conference from Louisiana Governor Bel Edwards on March 24, 2020.  Well, today I noticed that link was no longer working.  I have since located a YouTube version of that briefing and I am posting it here.  The entire briefing is around 49 minutes and about halfway through the sound fails.  However, in my opinion the best part (the part that had been originally posted on Twitter by NBC) is in the very beginning where the governor makes the case that this disease is deadly and that everyone in the state is vulnerable.  He emphasizes the need to follow his Stay At Home order and maintain social distancing.  Start at minute 4:00 and run until about 17:00 when the sound starts breaking up.   Governor Edwards has the cadence of a Southern preacher.  His tone and seriousness should communicate well to many citizens in his state--and maybe Mississippi. 

He states that if the coronavirus case curve isn’t flattened, New Orleans will exhaust ventilator capacity by April 2 and bedspace by April 7:

”This isn’t conjecture. This isn’t some flimsy theory. This isn’t some scare tactic. This is what’s going to happen.   Every single person has to take Social Distancing and my Stay At Home order--seriously.”

~z

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neek
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:02 pm 
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zephyr wrote:
Here's a video on shopping and cleaning groceries.

MtnGoat posted that a few pages back and indeed it's good.  Actionable.  Not sure if leaving food outside would work too well around here, but I'm setting up the garage as a quarantine area.
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xman_reborn
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PostThu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 pm 
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Seattle Times article:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-26-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/

Why are people STILL lining up at Costco? Is there a national shortage for groceries?

I have friends across the country saying that this is insane. Is it only is happening in Western Washington? Are we complete idiots here? I think we are. I'm embarrassed.
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