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altasnob Member
Joined: 29 Aug 2007 Posts: 1382 | TRs | Pics Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:47 pm
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MtnGoat Member
Joined: 17 Dec 2001 Posts: 11992 | TRs | Pics Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:01 pm
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Sure doesn't look that way.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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graywolf Member
Joined: 03 Feb 2005 Posts: 808 | TRs | Pics Location: Sequim |
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graywolf
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Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:17 pm
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The latest from Peter Attia. It's about 1 hour 20 minutes, but what a fascinating discussion with Michael Osterholm, one of the world's leading infectious disease epidemiologists.
Spoiler alert: we're in it for the long haul, and there are a helluva lot of unknowns.
https://peterattiamd.com/michaelosterholm/
The only easy day was yesterday...
The only easy day was yesterday...
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zephyr aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 3361 | TRs | Pics Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:37 pm
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graywolf wrote: | The latest from Peter Attia. It's about 1 hour 20 minutes, but what a fascinating discussion with Michael Osterholm, one of the world's leading infectious disease epidemiologists. |
Wow. 'about one third into the podcast. Really sobering in places. Still the knowledge and experience revealed in the speakers is inspiring. Glad that someone knows this stuff.
Thanks for posting. ~z
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graywolf Member
Joined: 03 Feb 2005 Posts: 808 | TRs | Pics Location: Sequim |
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graywolf
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Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:47 pm
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zephyr wrote: | graywolf wrote: | The latest from Peter Attia. It's about 1 hour 20 minutes, but what a fascinating discussion with Michael Osterholm, one of the world's leading infectious disease epidemiologists. |
Wow. 'about one third into the podcast. Really sobering in places. Still the knowledge and experience revealed in the speakers is inspiring. Glad that someone knows this stuff.
Thanks for posting. ~z
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I saw Dr. Osterholm on Joe Rogan's podcast, and he was awesome. So, when Peter had him as a guest, I knew it was going to be really good.
ETA: "Right now, for example, China isn’t saying it publicly but it appears that are closing movie theaters again and potential dealing with more spreading since they removed their strict lock down procedures."
Looks like it might be resurfacing in China. Jury's out at this time.
The only easy day was yesterday...
The only easy day was yesterday...
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graywolf Member
Joined: 03 Feb 2005 Posts: 808 | TRs | Pics Location: Sequim |
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graywolf
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Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:40 pm
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What I've been reading/hearing is that this virus will continue to recirculate until one of the following happens: a vaccine is developed, or 60-70% of the population has had the virus and has developed antibodies to it.
The only easy day was yesterday...
The only easy day was yesterday...
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Joey verrry senior member
Joined: 05 Jun 2005 Posts: 2794 | TRs | Pics Location: Redmond |
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Joey
verrry senior member
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:43 am
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Joey verrry senior member
Joined: 05 Jun 2005 Posts: 2794 | TRs | Pics Location: Redmond |
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Joey
verrry senior member
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:46 am
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Washakie Member
Joined: 18 Aug 2010 Posts: 402 | TRs | Pics Location: Ann Arbor, MI |
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Washakie
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:03 pm
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"Old soldiers never die....."
"What is the color when black is burned?" - Neil Young
"We're all normal when we want our freedom" - Arthur Lee
"The internet can make almost anyone seem intelligent" - Washakie
"What is the color when black is burned?" - Neil Young
"We're all normal when we want our freedom" - Arthur Lee
"The internet can make almost anyone seem intelligent" - Washakie
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fourteen410 Member
Joined: 23 May 2008 Posts: 2622 | TRs | Pics
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I wonder if we're going to get to a point where only at-risk individuals are required to stay home. If people in a low-risk group develop herd immunity, wouldn't that make it safer for the at-risk folks to re-emerge at some point? (Until we have a vaccine, of course.)
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zephyr aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 3361 | TRs | Pics Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:10 pm
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Here's a link to the Governor's press briefing in at 2 pm in Olympia today. He discusses the shortage of PPE (Personal protective equipment) in the state and asks for local manufacturers to step and make some of these much needed items. During the questions at the end, he discusses briefly the difficulty in getting the Federal Government to help with this nation-wide issue and how that we as a state are doing the best we can to work around the roadblock. ~z
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altasnob Member
Joined: 29 Aug 2007 Posts: 1382 | TRs | Pics Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:31 pm
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fourteen410 wrote: | I wonder if we're going to get to a point where only at-risk individuals are required to stay home. If people in a low-risk group develop herd immunity, wouldn't that make it safer for the at-risk folks to re-emerge at some point? (Until we have a vaccine, of course.) |
From what I've read, at least 60% of the population must be infected before a population reaches herd immunity. No one knows the true mortality rate yet, but 1% (across all ages) is a pretty good estimate. It's obviously much lower for younger people, and people who do not have risk factors.
In their March 26 report, the CDC found that people 20 to 44 years old have a 14-21% chance of hospitalization, a 2-4% chance of ICU admission, and a .1 to .2% chance of dying. 45 to 54 year olds have a 21 to 28% chance of hospitalization, 5 to 10% chance of ICU admission, and a .5 to .8% chance of dying. So another way of looking at it is at least one of every 200 fifty year olds in the US would die of the virus if you all of these "low risk" individuals were infected.
In their March 31 report the CDC broke down statistics by risk factors. For instance, if you are a former smoker, regardless of your age, you have a 7% chance of needing ICU hospital admission. Risk factors analyzed include diabetes, chronic lung disease, Cardiovascular disease, immunocompromised condition, chronic renal disease, pregnancy, neurologic disorder (neurodevelopmental, intellectual disability), chronic liver disease, other chronic disease, former smoker, and current smoker. My point here is there are a lot of risk factors out there that would elevate your chance of dying, regardless of age.
So even if in theory, if we could somehow separate all the high risk individuals from the rest of society for the next couple months, we're going to kill a whole lot of lower risk, otherwise healthy and young individuals. Not to mention, you would tax the health care system to limit, so doctors, nurses, and first responders would disproportionatly die trying to save people's lives. And finally, even if you reached herd imunity, it would in theory eliminate the virus from our community so the high risk individuals could come out of their hiding. But what happens when someone flies in the US with the virus from a place where the virus is still present? If you have a bunch of high risk individuals out in the community, who don't actually have immunity, they would be at risk of catching it from them.
It's certainly a thought that many have, but from what I have read, it just is not a reasonable solution.
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zephyr aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 3361 | TRs | Pics Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:17 pm
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altasnob wrote: | From what I've read, at least 60% of the population must be infected |
Thank you for the paragraphs! So much easier for me to read. And I appreciate your content--excellent contributions. ~z
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zephyr aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 3361 | TRs | Pics Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:24 pm
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altasnob wrote: | And finally, even if you reached herd imunity, it would in theory eliminate the virus from our community so the high risk individuals could come out of their hiding. But what happens when someone flies in the US with the virus from a place where the virus is still present? If you have a bunch of high risk individuals out in the community, who don't actually have immunity, they would be at risk of catching it from them. |
This is definitely a challenge to figure out how we operate with that potential. Maybe future visitors have to demonstrate immunity? We become a more closed society? This could work on an island perhaps, but in a nation state as large as we are? I wonder if our leaders and citizens are smart enough to solve this. It would take a lot of coordination and trust. Something we've been a little short on lately. ~z
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BigBrunyon Member
Joined: 19 Mar 2015 Posts: 1450 | TRs | Pics Location: the fitness gyms!! |
Just get a vaccine going! These big names in the investment markets need to step up. Go out and splash cash for a legit vaccine! A thoroughbred vaccine!! Shop around, get into something that'll really do the job.
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