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altasnob
Member
Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 1406 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
Member
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 Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:28 pm |
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I've been checking that model every day for the last week and it does appear things are improving in Washington and the curve is starting to flatten. The model adjust daily with real time data. Washington still has a shortage of ICU beds at peak resource date, but only a 9 bed shortage right now. That number has been going down every day. California now no longer has a shortage. Oregon is one of the few states in the entire nation that will have a surplus of ICU beds. I assume other states will be transferring their sick to OHSU and Oregon for treatment. For some reason, Oregon is able to handle global pandemics better than other states (was true in the 1918 Spanish Flu as well). In Alabama and the South, the situation appears to be getting worse (not better) every day.
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altasnob
Member
Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 1406 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
Member
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Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:35 pm |
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| Bernardo wrote: | | I wonder how many of the 900 million people who live on $2 per day are going to starve to death because we shut down the global economy, maybe 5%? That would be a 45 million. |
Economists from the Federal Reserve and MIT analyzed data from the 1918 Spanish Flu and found that social distancing is good for the economy, in the long term.
“We were expecting that the areas with more [social distancing] would have a worse economy but less mortality,” said Emil Verner, a co-author of the paper and a finance professor at MIT. But early and aggressive interventions both saved lives and triggered a faster rebound in several measures, such as job growth and banking assets.
The infamous trade-off between people and GDP? It doesn’t exist—or, at least, it didn’t in 1918. The reason, Verner explained, is that pandemics are “so, so disruptive that anything that you can do to mitigate that destructive impact of the pandemic itself is going to be useful.” Without a healthy population, there can be no healthy economy.
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 11276 | TRs | Pics
Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:19 pm |
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We are up to 4 known cases here in Okanogan County.
I always throw my reusable bags in the washer after use, but figured early on that now is not the time to use them.
I bought what I hope are two weeks of groceries yesterday. There were ten cars in the parking lot that I think belonged to the employees. It is more expensive, but usually uncrowded with good quality produce.
I got so depressed from a friend phoning and going on and on and on about things. I called another friend this morning and we discussed music, dogs and cake baking. Not to be confused with dogs baking cakes.
Biking? The wind has been horrendous here, but better today. I almost have the Radmini ready to hook the dog up to. There is less traffic, but it seems the cars are going faster. When the weather is a bit warmer, I'll head back up Salmon Cr. on the Gazelle.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
Posts: 3370 | TRs | Pics
Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:42 pm |
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Here's a link to the Governor's briefing today. I got here late, so at some point this live link will end and an archived version will appear.
He's extending the Stay At Home order until May 4th.
~z
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graywolf
Member
Joined: 03 Feb 2005
Posts: 808 | TRs | Pics
Location: Sequim |
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graywolf
Member
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Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:15 pm |
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| Ski wrote: | Outdoor Research makes masks to help with COVID-19 fight
| KIRO News wrote: | | SEATTLE — Seattle company Outdoor Research, known for making outdoor, tactical and military apparel, is switching gears to help fight COVID-19 and address the shortage of personal protective equipment for frontline health care workers.
Outdoor Research, located in the Sodo neighborhood, is committed to making 200,000 masks a day.
“With Seattle being the epicenter, we felt like we could do a lot more in the things we're doing. We're trying to look at the community. Who's in the most need? And it seemed be in our backyard,” said Jason Duncan, the company’s Head of Tactical, Innovation, and CSR.
Outdoor Research is also a contractor for tactical and military gear for the Department of Defense.
Before the Governor's ffice reached out to them, the staff was already trying to figure out how to help.
“Knowing our skills and our experience and our capacity, we had this, 'Let's start making masks'” idea,” explained Brent Zwiers, the company’s director of operations and production.
Now, the third floor of their building off 1st Avenue South is being converted to a mask-making factory. The company is on the path to getting Food and Drug Administration approval and waiting on special automated equipment. By late April, the company expects to make ASTM level 3 surgical masks, ramping up to 140,000 masks a day at full capacity. By May or June, workers will also be making N95 respirator masks -- up to 50,000 a day.
“In the immediate time frame, we are going to use the resources we have here to cut and sew handmade masks. That is going to start next week,” Zwiers said.
Outdoor Research said it employs about 100 factory workers in the area -- all ready to get to work.
“We want to pivot in our skill set. Our workers are capable, highly capable of building stuff and we really want to help our front line medical staff,” said Feng He, senior production manager.
Outdoor Research said it is ramping up slowly to ensure health and safety protocols are in place. That includes daily temperature checks.
The company has not had to lay off any workers and will be adding about 100 people as they ramp up production. |
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The only easy day was yesterday...
The only easy day was yesterday...
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
Posts: 3370 | TRs | Pics
Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:35 pm |
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From the Washington Post: According to CDC and World Health Organization guidelines, only the sick, and their caretakers, should wear face masks. Here's why University of San Francisco research scientist Jeremy Howard thinks otherwise. Read more: https://wapo.st/2USiRiS.
Edit/Part 2: This is where I had posted another video on mask-making. I thought this one was pretty simple and straightforward. ...
Tonight (April 4) I saw comments on HEPA vacuum filters being too difficult to breathe through--and worse--Unhealthy. So I pulled this video.
~z
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DigitalJanitor
Dirt hippie
Joined: 20 May 2012
Posts: 792 | TRs | Pics
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This is an excellent use of a highly skilled production facility still here in the US. When all this is done, I hope folks more important than I am rethink the value of our supply lines. Dr Michael Osterholm has talked about this specifically WRT critical drugs both in the Joe Rogan interview a few weeks ago and the more recent interview w Dr Peter Attia someone mentioned on here (THANK YOU!).
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lookout bob
WTA proponent.....
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 3043 | TRs | Pics
Location: wta work while in between lookouts |
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lookout bob
WTA proponent.....
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Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:02 am |
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"Altitude is its own reward"
John Jerome ( from "On Mountains")
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 7733 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:18 am |
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The reason you can't get toilet paper isn't hoarders, it's because being locked at home people are using 40% more - use that previously happened at work, at restaurants and coffee shops, etc. Meanwhile the industry is predicated on the assumption that demand will be flat.
https://marker.medium.com/amp/p/c812e1358fe0
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DigitalJanitor
Dirt hippie
Joined: 20 May 2012
Posts: 792 | TRs | Pics
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Ma Nature appears to be wasting NO time in taking advantage of more limited human activity. I've seen an awful lot of critters out wandering around mid day and even the birds seem to be more bold.
I wrote on FB the other day that this might be the best season for wildlife babies north America has had in decades if not longer.
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
Posts: 3370 | TRs | Pics
Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:21 am |
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Due to impacts of the Coronavirus outbreak the U.S. State Department has declared a temporary moratorium on new passports unless it's an emergency situation that can be demonstrated by the applicant. Quote:
Apply for a U.S. Passport
Please note: Due to public health measures to limit the spread of COVID-19, passport service is only available for customers with a qualified life-or-death emergency and who need a passport for immediate international travel within 72 hours. You cannot apply for expedited service at this time. If you apply for routine service, expect delays. Learn more.
~z
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
Posts: 3370 | TRs | Pics
Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:28 am |
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| DigitalJanitor wrote: | | recent interview w Dr Peter Attia[/url] someone mentioned on here (THANK YOU!) |
That would be NWHiker graywolf. He introduced us to Peter Attia and his podcast/interviews.
Wiki quote: Attia also hosts "The Peter Attia Drive" Podcast in which Attia does deep-dive interviews with prominent minds across various fields, primarily medicine, in an effort to spread awareness about longevity and improvements in health-span. That's a treasure trove of knowledge, wisdom, and experience.
~z
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xman_reborn
Member
Joined: 27 May 2015
Posts: 129 | TRs | Pics
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| Cyclopath wrote: | | The reason you can't get toilet paper isn't hoarders, it's because being locked at home people are using 40% more - use that previously happened at work, at restaurants and coffee shops, etc. Meanwhile the industry is predicated on the assumption that demand will be flat.
https://marker.medium.com/amp/p/c812e1358fe0 |
This argument falls flat. No one is delivering toilet paper now to closed businesses or restaurants. Read the comments on the article, most are in disagreement. I like this comment:
"And the 25lb bags of flour, rice, sugar? The cases of water? Those were because we can’t bake bread at work anymore?"
I find this hoarding phenomenon interesting. From reading about other parts of the country, it seems like Western Washington is experiencing this much more than anywhere else. Which goes along with my theory about how many idiots we have living around here.
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RayD
the griz ate my pass
Joined: 20 Aug 2005
Posts: 1763 | TRs | Pics
Location: Vacaville |
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RayD
the griz ate my pass
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Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:28 pm |
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don't believe everything you think
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
Posts: 3370 | TRs | Pics
Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:30 pm |
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Hey, graywolf. I respectfully disagree on this particular video. I think this guy is way to ahead of the current situation to be even considering relaxing any restrictions. If you read some of the comments on YT, others also agree.
As one of the commenters said: I'm starting to feel like I need to ignore you. We still haven't actually gotten to the basic amount of measures to stop the spread here. People need to panic enough to stop spreading this. This video might be great in 2 months but at this point I think you're doing damage by not commenting how in the American south they are doing nothing right now.
That video is from over a week ago. Since then, several Southern states have finally initiated lockdowns and more instructions to their citizens. But still testing using both the nasal swabs and the antibody tests is woefully slow and inadequate for the amount we actually need. The shortage of PPE remains a problem and the general public in some places is still catching up. It's just too soon to be talking about "exit strategies" at this point. We haven't even reached the peak of "the Wave" here. Other states will be behind us. I really recommend that article I posted earlier about future scenarios that might help with strategizing. This is from the Atlantic titled The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal (No paywall on Covid-19 articles.) ~z
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