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RichP
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RichP
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 Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:14 pm |
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Bosterson
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| Bernardo wrote: | | People are going to die and suffer catastrophically... The economic suffering will be immense and will reverberate through our society for years to come. |
This is true any way you slice it, whether we slow the spread or not. Having everyone suddenly go back to work would definitely exacerbate the former - just look at states that aren't mandating social distancing, or did it very late in the game. Letting the chips fall where they may to cull the herd sounds great in a glass bubble, but that's not reality. Plenty of people are still going to work, and the bad outcomes of doing so are falling on the very disadvantaged people you seem to be advocating for...
| The New York Times wrote: | | In Illinois, 43 percent of people who have died from the disease and 28 percent of those who have tested positive are African-Americans, a group that makes up just 15 percent of the state’s population. African-Americans, who account for a third of positive tests in Michigan, represent 40 percent of deaths in that state even though they make up 14 percent of the population. In Louisiana, about 70 percent of the people who have died are black, though only a third of that state’s population is.
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For many public health experts, the reasons behind the disparities are not difficult to explain, the result of longstanding structural inequalities. At a time when the authorities have advocated staying home as the best way to avoid the virus, black Americans disproportionately belong to part of the work force that does not have the luxury of working from home, experts said. That places them at high risk for contracting the highly infectious disease in transit or at work.
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Longstanding inequalities also make African-Americans less likely to be insured, and more likely to have existing health conditions and face racial bias that prevents them from getting proper treatment.
Initial indications are that doctors are less likely to refer African-Americans for testing when they visit a clinic with symptoms of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. Since the disease can progress quickly, researchers say, a disparity in testing can lead to considerably worse outcomes.
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“This current crisis lays out what we have known for a long time, which is that your ZIP code is often a determinant of your health outcome,” said Dr. Mandy Cohen, secretary of the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. |
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-race.html
Go! Take a gun! And a dog! Without a leash! Chop down a tree! Start a fire! Piss wherever you want! Build a cairn! A HUGE ONE!
BE A REBEL! YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE!
(-bootpathguy)
Go! Take a gun! And a dog! Without a leash! Chop down a tree! Start a fire! Piss wherever you want! Build a cairn! A HUGE ONE!
BE A REBEL! YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE!
(-bootpathguy)
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GaliWalker
Have camera will use
Joined: 10 Dec 2007
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Location: Pittsburgh |
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GaliWalker
Have camera will use
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:18 am |
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| Tom wrote: | | Bernardo, check out one of the Bill Gates interviews. We either take our economic pain now or later. If we take it now it provides time to keep things manageable enough until widespread testing / quarantine can limit the spread, at which point business can start to go back to normal, but not really until there is a vaccine. |
That was a good interview, making complete sense. 
Essentially, the only permanent solution is a vaccine, and there are all out efforts being made on that front.
In the absence of a vaccine, we need to continue social distancing, across all States, with no relaxation, until we've not only flattened the curve but are on the downslope. We'll also need a test with a quick turnaround in widespread use. Once we have that testing available, then we can judiciously open up some things, relying on the test and contact tracing to quickly identify and deal with any hotspots that flare up.
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
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Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:26 am |
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| Tom wrote: | | Bernardo, check out one of the Bill Gates interviews. We either take our economic pain now or later. If we take it now it provides time to keep things manageable enough until widespread testing / quarantine can limit the spread, at which point business can start to go back to normal, but not really until there is a vaccine. Just paraphrasing, I'm sure there are more nuances. |
Maybe this one? I am watching it now. Seems pretty clear the path to take. I am going to post it before I finish watching it since so far it is a very reasonable presentation.
Note: There is an ad that plays regarding the opioid crisis. You can mute if you want.
Just now finished this video. (I had some interruptions.) It's excellent. Looks like it's going to be a long haul. BTW, once this video ends it quickly jumps to another that auto-plays. Rather annoying of CBS. So plan to shut it down when the time is up. ~z
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Tom
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Joined: 15 Dec 2001
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Tom
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:21 pm |
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I'm guessing his message is similar over various news interviews. Here's the one I watched as it had popped up on my youtube feed. I didn't know who the interviewer was until googling him after the video, but thought he asked some good questions and did not make it political:
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Cyclopath
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Joined: 20 Mar 2012
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Cyclopath
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:48 pm |
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Thanks both of you for the links.
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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:48 pm |
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DigitalJanitor
Dirt hippie
Joined: 20 May 2012
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My take is... Trying to keep the economy humming at 100% during a pandemic seems far fetched. Shutting down the economy completely isn't even on the table by anybody serious either. Trying to band aid it together until we can get through to the other side seems like the reasonable middle ground, and therein will be arguments between people who have different values on safety vs money as we try to steady our course. We already see that the brunt of both physical and financial risks will not be applied evenly which should be expected in any country so severely divided by class already.
And this becomes exceptionally contentious in a society like ours where our core values are so centered around both financial production and the individual. If your family or friend or neighbor has to die so you can get back to work... how much is that worth to you? How much is that worth to them? What is your responsibility to yourself? What is your responsibility to your family? What is your responsibility to your community? Who gets to decide how much risk we can all collectively tolerate?
I really feel like this is all circling right back around to that most ancient question "Am I my brother's keeper?"
Honestly I don't have any easy answers. But this seems like a stick poked squarely at our hyper capitalist/ hyper individualist foundations, and I'm HOPING some long hard wrestling with hard questions results in some larger adjustments and improvements down the road. My fear is that the cost of this growth will be severe.
“Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:09 pm |
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Not surprisingly, I feel the stick is poking at precisely the opposite thing. The refusal to unflinchlingly examine so many tropes has made this far worse than it needs to be, including the so called class division and the actual reasons for it's basis. 
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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DigitalJanitor
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Joined: 20 May 2012
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Not surprisingly, I feel the stick is poking at precisely the opposite thing. The refusal to unflinchlingly examine so many tropes has made this far worse than it needs to be, including the so called class division and the actual reasons for it's basis. |
OK, what do you mean exactly?
FWIW currently I'm having to unflinchingly examine the experience for me, an IT person who can work from home, to my husband who makes parts from steel in a big plant and cannot work from home but is still working... for now. If our household had to rely on just one income or the other the expected outcome would be drastically different.
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Tom
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Tom
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:15 pm |
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As noted in the interview, not preparing for something like this over the last decade is probably the biggest reason why such drastic measures are needed now to control the spread. I thought the comparison to how we plan for and respond to war was insightful. In the future we have a much better chance to limit the economic pain if we are better prepared to respond and make that investment. We won't really know until after the fact (and maybe not even then) whether we took too many measures or not enough. There are many moving parts here that I don't think the economic analysis is so straight forward.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:34 pm |
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| DigitalJanitor wrote: | | OK, what do you mean exactly?
FWIW currently I'm having to unflinchingly examine the experience for me, an IT person who can work from home, to my husband who makes parts from steel in a big plant and cannot work from home but is still working... for now. If our household had to rely on just one income or the other the expected outcome would be drastically different. |
I appreciate your comments both the initial ones and the question, but to proceed further would lead us straight to verboten topics!
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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DigitalJanitor
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Joined: 20 May 2012
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| Tom wrote: | | In the future we have a much better chance to limit the economic pain if we are better prepared to respond and make that investment. |
I agree with you Tom, it's very complicated. And the stakes are very high in any direction.
One miserable part of preparing for something like this is that it requires significant continuous investment for something that is rare yet if it comes to pass can be devastating. It's often hard to get people to keep it up if immediately perceived ROI is seen as low. Volcanos and tsunamis might fit in this category as well, although worldwide pandemics present a unique risk in that the whole human species is affected and calling in outside help can't be relied on as a strategy.
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
Joined: 21 Jun 2009
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Location: West Seattle |
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zephyr
aka friendly hiker
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:38 pm |
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| Cyclopath wrote: | | Thanks both of you for the links. |
You're welcome. I appreciate Tom's adding the Daily Show interview. Much of the same material, but Trevor does a great job of interviewing and more information turns up. I recommend both videos. ~z
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Cyclopath
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Joined: 20 Mar 2012
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Cyclopath
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Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:44 pm |
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| DigitalJanitor wrote: | | One miserable part of preparing for something like this is that it requires significant continuous investment for something that is rare yet if it comes to pass can be devastating. It's often hard to get people to keep it up if immediately perceived ROI is seen as low. |
This is weird because everybody agrees that insurance is a good idea.
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