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Pahoehoe
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Pahoehoe
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PostMon Mar 30, 2020 10:11 pm 
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? That's where we are headed... that's why we need to stay home.

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Jordan
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 4:54 am 
Pahoehoe wrote:
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? That's where we are headed... that's why we need to stay home.
I highly doubt we will catch up with Italy. This thing will be gone and forgotten by the end of summer and vaccines and meds will be ready by next flu season. You should definitely stay home.

none
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Pahoehoe
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 5:32 am 
Jordan wrote:
Pahoehoe wrote:
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? That's where we are headed... that's why we need to stay home.
I highly doubt we will catch up with Italy. This thing will be gone and forgotten by the end of summer and vaccines and meds will be ready by next flu season. You should definitely stay home.
We already have more cases than Italy. Stick your head back in the sand and mix your germs around, hope you dont bring it home to any loved ones. How will you feel when your selfishness kills someone's grandma?

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snowmonkey
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 7:03 am 
Pahoehoe wrote:
Stick your head back in the sand
Thank you Pahoehoe- ! Staying at home to minimize the people-pool isn’t a hand wringing paranoid directive. There’s another aspect to it called commerce! All the shop keepers that have been forced to shutter their doors and in turn alter the economy and their employees livelihoods are affected when folks have the cavalier attitude of many out there clogging up trails and scootering under gates to get their way. If you’re not creative enough to get exercise and/or a dose of nature in a different way temporarily you’ve got problems.

Ocian in view! O! The joy! William Clark
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altasnob
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 7:42 am 
Jordan wrote:
Pahoehoe wrote:
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? That's where we are headed... that's why we need to stay home.
I highly doubt we will catch up with Italy. This thing will be gone and forgotten by the end of summer and vaccines and meds will be ready by next flu season. You should definitely stay home.
Jordon, that is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen posted on NWhikers, ever. And it's comments like these that make me fear that US will be more harmed by this pandemic than any wealthy nation. A vaccine (if it is even possible) will not be available for at least 12 months (world record speed) and more likely 18-24 months out. Next flu season is next fall, so you are suggesting the vaccine will be ready by then? Our best hope is some kind of prophylactic treatment will be available in the next six months, but we shouldn't count on that (because it is not a sure thing). Today, Italy has 101,739 corona virus cases. US has 162,126 cases. And while currently, Italy has more deaths, it is a foregone conclusion that the US will pass Italy for most deaths of any country on earth.
Countries that enact mandatory, firm, social distancing measures as early as possible will get through the pandmemic faster, with less loss of life, and less harm to the economy. I realize a lot of Americans are distrustful of the government and not used to self-sacraficing for the greater good. But that needs to change if we want to be able to hike this summer, fall, and next winter.

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kitya
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 8:09 am 
altasnob wrote:
Today, Italy has 101,739 corona virus cases. US has 162,126 cases. And while currently, Italy has more deaths, it is a foregone conclusion that the US will pass Italy for most deaths of any country on earth.
It is meaningless to compare absolute number of corona deaths not relating to population numbers. US naturally has about 3 millions deaths a year. 100-200K corona deaths are not all 'additional', they are at least some part of natural death rate and barely move yearly natural average. Studies from Wuhan show that COVID-19 has about R-number of 2.5 to R-3, i.e. one infected person on average infects about 3 other people. This is from Wuhan, giant city with millions of people stuck in giant apartment complexes, giant malls, public transit, etc., nothing comparable with any city in US, not even NY. In order to stop the epidemic you just need to have R number go to less than 1 and virus naturally fades away. This shouldn't need strict social distancing measures for this at all, you just need the average number of social interactions to drop by 3x, but not to 0! And that is social interactions compared to Wuhan! Italy is one of the poor and densly populated countries in Europe. Comparing how fast virus is naturally spreading in Italy and WA is about as meaningful as comparing with Wuhan. Look at Japan in your graphs. Japan has close contacts with China, Japan has elderly population and got virus early. Yet they don't do almost any social distancing, they just closed schools and disneyland, but kept all offices, public transit, bars, restaurants and yes public lands and national parks open, so their social distancing measures are very mild with almost no effect on the economy and they do totally fine. Claiming that we know that strict social distancing is the only way is unfounded.

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Randito
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 8:36 am 
kitya wrote:
Look at Japan in your graphs. Japan has close contacts with China, Japan has elderly population and got virus early. Yet they don't do almost any social distancing, they just closed schools and disneyland, but kept all offices, public transit, bars, restaurants and yes public lands and national parks open, so their social distancing measures are very mild with almost no effect on the economy and they do totally fine. Claiming that we know that strict social distancing is the only way is unfounded.
Measures that are sufficiently effective in Japan,, IMHO are likely not enough here in the USA. In Japan they have vending machines that sell beer in the subway stations and these are not immediately emptied by high school students. There are no public garbage cans in cities -- yet there is no litter or garbage on the streets and sidewalks. Here is the WA the WDFW ended up closing fishing statewide after numerous acts of vandalism on WDFW facilities and lands. If COVID-19 only infected selfish assholes... -- but it doesn't pick and choose.

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altasnob
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 8:43 am 
Japan numbers have been an enigma. But a couple things. They wear masks, we don't. They are obedient, trustful of their government, and have social cohesion. We don't. And Japan is possibly set for an explosion of cases and has started to implement social distancing measures. Any data coming from China is facing increasing scrutiny (can't link New York Times article on this form this morning, but just google it). I haven't seen any modeling to suggest the R-number of corona virus in the US is going to fall to close to 1, or below, without strict social distancing measures being enacted nationwide until at least July 1. For instance, the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model (from Seattle/UW), which was cited by Dr. Birx yesterday, is one of the more optimistic models I have seen and still predicts 224,000 hospital beds will be needed on April 15 (61,000 more than we'll have) when the US is estimated to reach "peak resource use." The model assumes social distancing will continue through May, and even then, it finds that, by August, around 82,000 people in the US could die from Covid-19. While the model above predicts the amount of infected will be reduced substantially by June 1, the virus will still be present and the R-number will still be above 1. The only way to prevent a repeated spike is through widespread testing, and tracing contacts (something the US has not been good at to date). And this pandemic will not be over until it is over in every country on earth (so long as we have free movement of people on this planet). So to get the R-number under 1 we need a vaccine to be administered worldwide, or we need herd immunity (loss of millions of life to get there). Even Trump agrees we need social distancing until April 30, and I predict this will be extended through May.

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Jordan
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 8:49 am 
Pahoehoe wrote:
Jordan wrote:
Pahoehoe wrote:
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? That's where we are headed... that's why we need to stay home.
I highly doubt we will catch up with Italy. This thing will be gone and forgotten by the end of summer and vaccines and meds will be ready by next flu season. You should definitely stay home.
We already have more cases than Italy. Stick your head back in the sand and mix your germs around, hope you dont bring it home to any loved ones. How will you feel when your selfishness kills someone's grandma?
. Sorry, I'll be more specific. We will not catch up in deaths, that is what matters. You make my point for me with that statement. Percentage wise, deaths per cases, we are doing much better. Sorry that you are wrong again.

none
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Jordan
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 8:51 am 
altasnob wrote:
Jordan wrote:
Pahoehoe wrote:
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? That's where we are headed... that's why we need to stay home.
I highly doubt we will catch up with Italy. This thing will be gone and forgotten by the end of summer and vaccines and meds will be ready by next flu season. You should definitely stay home.
Jordon, that is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen posted on NWhikers, ever. And it's comments like these that make me fear that US will be more harmed by this pandemic than any wealthy nation. A vaccine (if it is even possible) will not be available for at least 12 months (world record speed) and more likely 18-24 months out. Next flu season is next fall, so you are suggesting the vaccine will be ready by then? Our best hope is some kind of prophylactic treatment will be available in the next six months, but we shouldn't count on that (because it is not a sure thing). Today, Italy has 101,739 corona virus cases. US has 162,126 cases. And while currently, Italy has more deaths, it is a foregone conclusion that the US will pass Italy for most deaths of any country on earth.
Countries that enact mandatory, firm, social distancing measures as early as possible will get through the pandmemic faster, with less loss of life, and less harm to the economy. I realize a lot of Americans are distrustful of the government and not used to self-sacraficing for the greater good. But that needs to change if we want to be able to hike this summer, fall, and next winter.
Zzzzzzz. I guess we'll wait to see who is right on this. Talk to you in the fall.

none
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altasnob
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 8:54 am 
Jordan wrote:
Sorry, I'll be more specific. We will not catch up in deaths. Sorry that you are wrong.
Can you cite something to support your claim? Trump predicts 100,000 deaths in the US. Italy has 11,591 deaths today, US has 2,968. The chart I posted above suggests the US will pass Italy for most deaths on earth in 10 to 15 days. This is also supported by every model I have seen.

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Randito
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 9:01 am 
altasnob wrote:
While the model above predicts the amount of infected will be reduced substantially by June 1, the virus will still be present and the R-number will still be above 1. The only way to prevent a repeated spike is through widespread testing, and tracing contacts (something the US has not been good at to date). And this pandemic will not be over until it is over in every country on earth (so long as we have free movement of people on this planet). So to get the R-number under 1 we need a vaccine to be administered worldwide, or we need herd immunity (loss of millions of life to get there). Even Trump agrees we need social distancing until April 30, and I predict this will be extended through May.
Yes -- I think it is also important to note that in the 1918 influenza outbreak had a span of over two years and came in three waves. The middle wave was the most deadly -- it appears the virus mutated between the 1st and 2nd wave... So I think this is going to go on for months -- not weeks. I think it is also possible that we may experience a "lull" and then one of the mutations will be more successful at infecting humans and a second wave will sweep the population.

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joker
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 9:45 am 
In the meantime, King County Parks remain officially closed

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Ski
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 10:23 am 
Randy wrote:
"... it appears the virus mutated between the 1st and 2nd wave..."
^ That seems to be the accepted theory, yes. My paternal grandmother died in the second wave, in November of 1918. Currently some "experts" are saying to expect a lull in the coming few months, and then a repeat of the same sort of thing that happened in the fall of 1918 - having it come back again.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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rossb
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PostTue Mar 31, 2020 11:10 am 
Quote:
Italy is one of the poor and densely populated countries in Europe.
What??? No. Italy isn't that dense, and most of the density in the country is found in the south (which was nowhere near the epicenter). Here is a cool map that shows density numbers for countries as well as cities. I have it centered over L. A. If you hover over L. A., you can see that around 3 million people live in areas with over 6K per square km. Not impressive by world standards, but still a lot of people in a relatively dense area. Now move over to Italy. In the entire country, you have about 5 million people living in areas like that (not much more than just L. A.). Most of that density is found to the south (not in the Lombardy Region, the center of the outbreak). Milan -- by far the most densely populated city in the Lombardy Region -- has about 1.5 million living in areas that dense. Every other city in Lombardi is low density, with no one living in areas that dense. Sprawling L. A. has more density than the region hit with the epidemic in Italy. Now move the map over to South Korea, and Seoul. Holy cow that is a lot of density. Almost the entire city (of almost ten million) lives in areas that dense. There are over 3 million people living in density of 18-22K. No one in Italy lives in a area that densely populated. Things fade out after 10-12K (again, with most of those people in the south). Or how about Singapore? It isn't as big as Seoul, but the five million people that live in that city-state live in areas way more densely populated than anywhere in Italy (let alone Lombardi). Of course all things being equal, the virus would be a bigger problem in more densely populated areas. But all things aren't equal. South Korea got hit hard with the virus (in part because a religious sect decided to ignore public health recommendations) but managed to flatten the curve fairly rapidly. Italy ignored their example, and screwed the pooch. Now the U. S. is busy screwing the pooch. (Dense) Singapore and (not dense) Australia have managed to keep the virus at bay by applying the same approach as South Korea. Test thoroughly, and then respond vigorously with every threat. We haven't done the former (anywhere), while our response varies place to place. In areas where they essentially ignored the threat (like New York) it is a major problem. But in this state we've done better. Partly that has been because the governor (and mayor) took it seriously (unlike New York), but also because people in general listened to the experts, and didn't act like Rudy Golbert. Please don't be like Rudy. Stick with what you know (whatever that is) and leave this to the experts.

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