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MtnGoat
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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 Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:22 am |
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LOL! Necessary for some though, a couple times a year I'm approached by an OR resident on the WA side on how to pump gas.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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Joined: 17 Dec 2001
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:33 am |
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Head of EU’s top science panel quits over COVID-19 response
| Quote: | | The news was first announced by the Financial Times, based on a statement released to the paper by Ferrari, who said he had “been extremely disappointed by the European response” to the virus pandemic.
He complained about running into institutional and political obstacles as he sought to swiftly set up a scientific program to combat the virus.
“I have seen enough of both the governance of science, and the political operations at the European Union,” he wrote in the statement. “I have lost faith in the system itself.”
Ferrari’s resignation came in the wake of a March 27 vote in which “the other 19 active members of the scientific council requested the resignation of the president,” the European Commission’s Bahrke said. |
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:08 am |
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Contrary to what some likely believe  , I read from *all* sources continuously, and Vox has this interesting article today on Covid's impact on the increasingly curated, separated from reality, digitally moderated lives. Interesting ideas.
Thomas de Zengotita on why life during coronavirus will have “a permanent effect on people’s respect for reality.”
| Quote: | | Compared to what used to be the uncontainability of nature itself — I’m talking about the whole universe — the uncontainability of this is way more problematic. We’ve succeeded in finding metaphors, boxes, ways of containing or understanding our depictions and representations of nature, which have made us feel kind of equal to the task of existing in it. But existing in this atmosphere is like a permanent invisible fog. Because it’s invisible. You can’t mediate it. Even wars and earthquakes are mediatable, if the mediation technologies work hard enough. And when I say “mediatable,” I mean “covered,” in the pun sense of the word “covered.”
But this sucker ain’t gonna be covered. It can’t be represented well enough to give us the feeling that we know what it is. I don’t mean “know what it is” in scientific detail. We can all know that. The “it” I’m talking about is the “it” I’m looking at, right now, outside my window. |
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:11 pm |
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Not a bioweapon, the escape of a virus being studied...
| Quote: | | Professor Ebright also revealed that scientists at both the Chinese laboratories -the Centre for Disease Control- who studied the viruses are employing only 'level 2' security rather than the recommended level 4. This provides only minimal protection against infection of the people inside the laboratory and other lab workers.
It is especially critical to enhance biosecurity measures because virus collection, isolation, culture, or animal infection will pose a risk of infection to laboratory workers, and from them to the general public, Prof. Ebright warns.
He added that the evidence he saw left a basis to rule out the COVID-19 as made inside a laboratory, but there is no basis for ruling out that it is not a lab accident. |
Warning about insufficient protocols noted in 2015
| Quote: | | Josh Rogin, who is said to be as plugged into the State Department as any Washington Post columnist, was shown documents dating back to 2015 revealing how the U.S. government was worried about safety standards at that Wuhan lab. In fact, they were worried that one day, one of these experiments — including the one on bat coronaviruses — could escape and become a global nightmare. |
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:19 pm |
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:39 am |
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The importance of epistemology first...
| Quote: | | Despite the truly historic mobilization of science, our knowledge in crucial areas is still swamped by ignorance, especially on the sources of the virus but also on its progress and future outcomes. The expertise employed in COVID-19 policy advice builds on speculative assumptions on the virus itself, and how far it’s possible to control and predict how people behave.
Known unknowns include the real prevalence of the virus in the population; the role of asymptomatic cases in the rapid spread of the virus; the degree to which humans develop immunity; the dominant exposure pathways; the disease’s seasonal behaviour; the time to deliver global availability of an effective vaccine or cure; and the nonlinear response of individuals and collectives to the social distancing interventions in the complex system of communities interconnected across multiple scales, with many tipping points, and hysteresis loops (implying that society may not be able to rebound to the state it was in before the coronavirus interventions took place). These deep uncertainties make quantitative predictions speculative and unreliable.
‘THERE IS NO NUMBER-ANSWER’
Instead, following a pattern well known to PNS practitioners, predictions which purportedly “jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to action” can only be obtained by mathematical models that produce crisp numbers, even though these numbers have been obtained at the cost of artificially compressing the associated uncertainty. “There is no number-answer to your question,” explodes an angry medical expert to the politician trying to force a number out of him. |
https://steps-centre.org/blog/postnormal-pandemics-why-covid-19-requires-a-new-approach-to-science/
An analysis of the rush to use poorly calibrated models...
| Quote: | | We have been doing a very straightforward MCMC calibration of a simple SEIR model (equivalent of energy balance box model in climate science, pretty much). The basic concept is to use the model to invert the time series of reported deaths back through the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R.
It’s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts (in the UK at least) are doing this. I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for, if not this sort of thing? They should have been all over this like a rash. The exponential trend in the data is a key diagnostic of the epidemic and the experts didn’t even bother with the most elementary calibration of this in their predictions that our entire policy is based on. It’s absolutely nuts.
It’s as if someone ran a simulation with a ****** model and presented the prediction without any basic check on whether it reproduced the recent *******. You’d get laughed out of the room if you tried that at any conference I was attending. By me if no-one else (no, really, I wouldn’t be the only one). |
https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/04/14/model-calibration-nowcasting-and-operational-prediction-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Chief Joseph
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Joined: 10 Nov 2007
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Location: Verlot-Priest Lake |
| Cyclopath wrote: | | Closing alcohol sales is a risky thing. There are severe alcoholics who will wind up in the ER/ICU from withdrawal, hospital beds are needed and too few. It will prevent some people from developing alcoholism but the short term cost is severe and the long term cost it avoids is more easily mitigated. It will also reduce some exposure and infection rates from people not going to the store for alcohol. |
I haven't heard anything about "closing alcohol sales" where are you getting that?
I buy mine from grocery stores or drug stores so, which are obviously going to remain open.
Besides taking alcohol away from Americans would be like trying to take away the other item that can't be mentioned here, it would be a big problem.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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MtnGoat
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:42 am |
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Drinking alcohol can make the coronavirus worse, the WHO says in recommending restricting access
| Quote: | | Drinking alcohol can increase the risk of catching Covid-19 and make it worse if you do get it, the World Health Organization said, recommending that government leaders around the world limit access to alcohol during coronavirus lockdowns.
“Alcohol compromises the body’s immune system and increases the risk of adverse health outcomes,” the WHO’s regional office for Europe said on its site late Tuesday, citing heavy alcohol use throughout the continent.
Alcohol consumption is associated with a number of communicable and noncommunicable diseases that can make a person more vulnerable to contracting Covid-19. It can also exacerbate mental health issues and risk-taking behavior and stoke violence, especially in countries that have implemented social distancing measures that largely keep the population quarantined in their homes. |
Go ahead, try it in the US and further undermine whatever support you still retain.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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neek
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Joined: 12 Sep 2011
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Location: Seattle, WA |
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neek
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Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:17 am |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Go ahead, try it in the US and further undermine whatever support you still retain. |
By "it" do you mean "being an alcoholic" or "banning alcohol"? Not looking for an argument, just can't tell from context what you're saying.
Watched my dad go through a rapid detox program once. It was pretty intense and I'm not sure he would have survived without the support of the clinic. Not all states allow alcohol sales in grocery stores so it will be interesting to see what happens where the legal supply does get effectively cut off. IIRC we've been here before...not during a pandemic, but right after.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:57 am |
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Hi Neek, my comment was about bans. My apologies for lack of clarity.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:38 am |
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Chief Joseph
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Joined: 10 Nov 2007
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Location: Verlot-Priest Lake |
| neek wrote: | | it will be interesting to see what happens where the legal supply does get effectively cut off. |
Moonshine happens. 
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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MtnGoat
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:20 am |
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/social-shredding-defiant-residents-grab-shovels-dirt-bikes-after-cali-authorities-dump-tons-of-sand-in-skateparks-for-social-distancing
| Quote: | | California authorities tried to stop skateboarders by dumping literally tons of sand into at least two area skateparks in an effort to enforce so-called “social distancing.” However, the effort was for naught, it seems.
Young residents in California responded to the government’s extreme social distancing enforcement action by grabbing a few shovels, buckets, and booms and turning at least one sand-filled skatepark into a park for both skating and dirt biking.
“Took advantage of all the sand the city dumped into the San Clemente skatepark then helped some local skaters dig it all out so they could do some social shredding,” Buttery Films’ Instagram account posted at San Clement Skatepark on Sunday. |
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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Location: Lyle, WA |
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MtnGoat
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Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:27 pm |
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| Quote: | | Randito wrote:
You did claim to have prevented a Martian invasion. What was your method of knowing the attack was imminent and to undertake counter measures? |
Why, the same as other untestable models of course.
I invented a number of black box, magic number coefficients to represent things I didn't understand and had no way of knowing the details of, or even knowing what I didn't know, and then parameterized those while I judged the model results and kept adjusting the parameters until the model produced the output I wanted to expect. 
The model used cup o noodles environmental impact, it's effect on 11+1 spatial dimensions, the alien response to impacts in said coordinates from the wires powering the microwave cooking the noodles, the N dimensional manifold comprising the alien's home environment in concert with water vapor over Hong Kong's harbor, all kinds of stuff I can't explain to non experts because science.
Now I understand why scientism is so handy! No screwing around with pesky falsified results.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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Randito
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Joined: 27 Jul 2008
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Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:36 pm |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Quote: | | Randito wrote:
You did claim to have prevented a Martian invasion. What was your method of knowing the attack was imminent and to undertake counter measures? |
Why, the same as other untestable models of course.
I invented a number of black box, magic number coefficients to represent things I didn't understand and had no way of knowing the details of, or even knowing what I didn't know, and then parameterized those while I judged the model results and kept adjusting the parameters until the model produced the output I wanted to expect.
The model used cup o noodles environmental impact, it's effect on 11+1 spatial dimensions, the alien response to impacts in said coordinates from the wires powering the microwave cooking the noodles, the N dimensional manifold comprising the alien's home environment in concert with water vapor over Hong Kong's harbor, all kinds of stuff I can't explain to non experts because science.
Now I understand why scientism is so handy! No screwing around with pesky falsified results. |
Cool and you publicly published your prediction in advance right? and demonstrated evidence that the Martians were headed this way and then were deflected ?
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