Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > A Random Drop On Wall Street
Previous :: Next Topic  
Author Message
catsp
Member
Member


Joined: 15 Jun 2017
Posts: 84 | TRs

catsp
  Top

Member
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 4:17 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Anyone ready to call or predict the bottom?
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5355 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 4:39 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Not with this US leadership.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Tom
Admin



Joined: 15 Dec 2001
Posts: 16445 | TRs

Tom
  Top

Admin
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 4:51 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I don't pick individual stocks or try to time the market.  I choose to be invested in the market as a whole (weighted by market cap) with an age appropriate allocation of cash. At my age I won't need the money for at least 5-10 years (everyone's situation is different of course) so does it matter what wall street prices my portfolio at today, yesterday, a month ago, or a year from now?  That's not to say I haven't been tempted to pull everything after seeing the market rise 10% just because a stimulus package passed.  I pondered where I would put the money and asked myself what criteria I would have to put money back in.  If I had money to invest, I might actually see this as an opportunity to invest for the future.  So why try to time it?  I've learned I'm no better than anyone else at this.  I don't think Warren Buffet is any better either.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Bernardo
Member
Member


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
Posts: 2092 | TRs
Location: out and about in the world
Bernardo
  Top

Member
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 6:25 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
As of today's close the aggregate annualized dividend yield in the S&P 500 is 2.39%.  The annual dividen has been growing about 3.8% over the last 20 years.  The only time the yield was higher in the last 20 years was at the depths of the financial crisis.  Anyone know of a safer, better priced cash flow stream?
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



Joined: 07 Sep 2018
Posts: 994 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Anne Elk
  Top

BrontosaurusTheorist
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 8:11 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Bernardo wrote:
CCL looks like it's priced factoring in a high chance of bankruptcy.  It seems like it could be like a coin flip: it's either going to zero, or it's going to be up big.  What do you think the odds are that they won't be able to service their debt?  Hard to say.  Is government going to keep them from failing?

I've wondered about this too; the overhead costs involved in maintaining a fleet of ships (much less ones that size) are just staggering. With foreign-flagged ships but a headquarters in FL, it will be interesting to see if they're able to wheedle any bailout money from the gov't; I'd say odds are good; they've survived multiple felony convictions, probations, etc. etc. I'd guess they'll do a restructure and sell off some of their ships in the process. And with these kinds of clauses in their passenger contracts, they can weasel out of anything:
Quote:
Carnival's court filing stated that the contract that passengers agree to when they buy a ticket "makes absolutely no guarantee for safe passage, a seaworthy vessel, adequate and wholesome food, and sanitary and safe living conditions.

(source: Wikipedia)

--------------
"There are yahoos out there.  Its why we cant have nice things."  - Tom Mahood
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Damian
Member
Member


Joined: 18 Dec 2001
Posts: 3182 | TRs

Damian
  Top

Member
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 9:01 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Tom wrote:
I've learned I'm no better than anyone else at this.

Me neither.  Except being old enough to have seen a few minor crashes.  And when today becomes hindsite, the story will likely be the same as it usually is.  Those who stayed put ended up fine.  Those who bailed or fumbled likely came out too.  But with less and it took longer.  Of course there are huge exceptions.  But I'm never one of them.  Part of aging is enjoing certain aspects of boredom.  (Been listening to too much Prine these days.  Wait, there's no such thing)
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 4181 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
  Top

Faster than light
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 9:34 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
catsp wrote:
gb wrote:
Not with this US leadership.

I guess that's one way of getting a thread shut down ...

I know I'm waking near the third rail here, but there's a valid point, and it deserves consideration.  I'm going to try to do this as respectfully as possible.

Trump sees himself as a maverick, and so do many of his base.  He ran on part by pointing to problems with machine politics, continuity between administrations, etc.  (He gave advice once to another president, about to meet with an adversary: show up an hour late, swear at them, and enjoy a psychological upper hand.)  Trump doesn't operate the way past presidents operate, and that makes it difficult to predict what will happen.  ("You can't use 'Trump' and 'obviously' in the same sentence.")
There is more uncertainty in all things over the next few years, this industry even more so.

Personally I don't think cruising is going away any time soon, but the industry is currently in a tailspin that will level out to a long decline.

It's an enormously expensive product, with a limited customer base.  I dated somebody for years who sold them, before CV and struggled to meet sales targets because half of the market just didn't $80k on a cruise last year.  Cruising will always be subject to weather at port excursions.  And local rules; one lady donut didn't buy because she had to wear pants (not a skirt) to the Sistine Chapel.  She find that offensive South s $40k price tag.

Before this started, the industry had received a lot of bad PR for norovirus, a quaint memory.  Currently they're seen as president death ships.  How long will that reputation take to fade from memory?  It's hard to charge big bucks with low consumer confidence in your product.

Cruise ships are harmful to the ports they land in, and to the environment.  There were starting to get bad publicity, they're forgotten now sitting the pandemic.  But they'll come back.  People are getting "woke" and not wanting to support this.  Changing how the ships are fueled isn't trivial or cheap.

TL;DR the cruise industry is a more risky investment right now than many others.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
Ski
><((((>



Joined: 28 May 2005
Posts: 10925 | TRs
Location: tacoma
Ski
  Top

><((((>
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 9:44 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Cyclopath wrote:
"Cruise ships are harmful to the ports..."

When the drug cartel violence in Mexico caused the cruise ships to stop docking in Mazatlan, the local economy went right down the toilet. The tourists not stopping for a day and shopping was a huge hit on the local businesses there. Some of those passengers drop a lot of money in those ports of call.

--------------
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. 
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Bernardo
Member
Member


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
Posts: 2092 | TRs
Location: out and about in the world
Bernardo
  Top

Member
PostFri Apr 03, 2020 10:40 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Dividends in aggregate are much less volatile than stock prices, but they do fall some years usually during major recessions.  Right now they are on sale compared to a month ago and $1,000 in an S&P index fund or ETF will get you $23.90 in the coming year, plus whatever is paid out going forward. Focusing on dividends is a lot less stressful than prices because they usually go up.  If you want to earn $125,000 at the current rate, you would need to put about $5.3 million into the market.  The value of your investment might fluctuate, but you would never starve and you could pass your capital on to your descendents.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 5355 | TRs

gb
  Top

Member
PostSat Apr 04, 2020 11:54 am 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
There are ways around some of this, but, of course, with a lot of uncertainty.

One place shutting down and then another and mostly after it is too late doesn't cut it. If everyone shut down simultaneously, the spread of the virus would quickly be stopped as I said in a different thread in perhaps 3-5 weeks. Quarantine of all those sick would take a bit longer. This high powered CDC guy from Osmosis? and Fausci have said the same thing.

With wise leadership a further crash may not have to happen. I suggested yesterday to a friend who not long ago retired as a pilot from American Airlines that he contact someone with power he might know and suggest that when "possible" - when sufficient tests are available and the spread has been stopped, anyone who flies could show a recent certificate of testing for Covid at the gate or even perhaps be tested there for a few and then all could fly and people could feel comfortable doing so. I suggested this could be written into law for the duration of this issue.

The same thing could happen in many situations - within a workforce at an office, at a restaurant large enough to pay someone at the door to check certificates - or perhaps at point of reservation for dinner. Even a sports team like the Seahawks could require such testing or a certificate thereof to obtain a ticket to enter a sports stadium.

All of this would of course require sufficient tests be available, laws to require something like this, and it would be costly - but the economy could begin to recover.

But my guess the foot draggers will continue to stand on some inane principal and furtherer torch the stock market that they speak of in so high of terms.

[ polities removed by moderator ]
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
joker
seeker



Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 7849 | TRs
Location: state of confusion
joker
  Top

seeker
PostSat Apr 04, 2020 12:21 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
I'm with Tom and the authors of the great and very short book The Elements of Investing

But for others who want to call the bottom etc, good luck with those gambles.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
catsp
Member
Member


Joined: 15 Jun 2017
Posts: 84 | TRs

catsp
  Top

Member
PostSat Apr 04, 2020 12:30 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
joker wrote:
But for others who want to call the bottom etc, good luck with those gambles.

To be clear, this is all (meant to be) in fun.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Reply to topic Reply with quote
neek
Member
Member


Joined: 12 Sep 2011
Posts: 1158 | TRs
Location: Seattle, WA
neek
  Top

Member
PostSat Apr 04, 2020 1:07 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
What, did something happen?  I haven't looked at my retirement accounts for 6 months or so, and don't plan to any time soon.  Presumably things are still humming along smoothly.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Backpacker Joe
NWH Joe-Bob



Joined: 16 Dec 2001
Posts: 23588 | TRs
Location: Cle Elum
Backpacker Joe
  Top

NWH Joe-Bob
PostSat Apr 04, 2020 5:41 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Stay where you are!  Market history shows recovery is the norm!  Youre crazy if you react and sell during this time.  Five Ten Twenty years from now youll be way ahead of where you are now.

--------------
"If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."

Abraham Lincoln
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
Jeff
Ramen Elitist



Joined: 18 Aug 2008
Posts: 2963 | TRs
Location: Someone get me out of Everett, WA
Jeff
  Top

Ramen Elitist
PostSat Apr 04, 2020 6:09 pm 
Reply to topic Reply with quote
Time in the market beats timing the market, although I understand the temptation to move things around if you are just a few years out from retirement. Unfortunately not a problem that I have yet.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail Reply to topic Reply with quote
  Display:     All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > A Random Drop On Wall Street
  Happy Birthday DuckDuckGoose, thesnorkeler, tcvd112!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
   Use Disclaimer Powered by phpBB Privacy Policy