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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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 Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:40 am |
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| catsp wrote: | | Ah. Poorly worded question. It should have asked, when do you think we should re-open?
On the spectrum with human carnage on one end, and financial carnage (arguably, a different form of human carnage) on the other, where should we point the slider? |
Since the financial carnage is currently a result of restrictions imposed, and the human carnage is within the control of each individual with respect to how much risk they will tolerate in the tradeoff with all their other ideals and goals, you point the slider to letting people make the value judgment between the two for themselves at all levels.
If you're too worried for whatever reason to go out or work, you don't. If you have conditions which make you susceptible or high risk, you don't make the choices that result in exposure. Locking everyone else down because you need isolation is neither supportable nor sustainable.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:43 am |
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| catsp wrote: | | Okay, can we agree that it would be helpful if you write "I believe that" or "I wish that" or something else in front of that sentence? Or what would you put in front of it so that it accurately conveys your position? |
Either of those is appropriate. The default as I see it is that people post what they believe, in my experience anyway.
I don't know of anyone who posts what someone *else* believes without making it clear that's the case.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:46 am |
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| neek wrote: | | In my perfect union...we'd see the value in both competitive and altruistic behavior; in the appropriateness of top-down decision making in some contexts, bottom-up in others. Many people these days believe the federal government is so hopelessly broken that it couldn't possibly coordinate such an effort as PPE distribution. And so we make decisions that further break the system. Bit of a downward spiral it all is. |
Oh it can certainly 'coordinate'. There is no question, because by definition when it attempts coordination with any process identifiable or claimed to be 'coordination', then coordination is taking place.
The real issue is the effectiveness of the coordination, the goals, the methods. And when operating within systems lacking (or even inverted, in many cases) any of the natural disincentives to mistakes and malfeasance present within the private sphere, you get results and decisions distorted by that environment.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:47 am |
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| Randito wrote: | | The only real test is for you to go out and intentionally violate the closure order and be cited and then challenge the constitutionality of the closure order.
That's how unconstitutional laws are generally overturned. |
Yup.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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neek
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neek
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:54 am |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Since the financial carnage is currently a result of restrictions imposed, and the human carnage is within the control of each individual with respect to how much risk they will tolerate in the tradeoff with all their other ideals and goals, you point the slider to letting people make the value judgment between the two for themselves at all levels. |
Once again, first level thinking (take note!); inability to appreciate the dynamical and chaotic nature of the system. Perhaps I shouldn't be so harsh, because fundamentally I agree with you--if people's individual choices were made completely within a vacuum, let them do whatever they want, including commit suicide--but that is simply not the case here. More people doing risky things increases my risk. And I'm completely innocent! Never sinned in my life, honest. And no, financial carnage isn't strictly a result of restrictions. Human life does have economic value, although whether it's $10MM for everyone I can't say for sure.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:08 am |
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Once again, needing to use claims like 'first level' thinking to imply error rather than showing it. I'll simply claim your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order thinking is insufficient to my n+1th thinking, where n is whatever level you're claiming for your take.
Disagreement is not a sign something you think is important has not been taken into account.
Life is nothing but dynamic and chaotic situations, and that is exactly why you let people make these decisions for themselves. There is no 'expert' who knows what will happen better than anyone else with respect to all the dynamics and chaos. There is no expert who will know your value judgments on those risks for you better than you do.
More people doing risky things has always increased your risk. There is nothing new here. People do risky things in grocery stores, salad bars, on the trail 3 switchbacks above you, on bikes, in traffic.... There is no right to control other people because they are a 'risk'. The argument of risk is the ultimate in subjective arguments as a basis to control someone else's life and choices. When someone can be *proven* to have harmed you, you have a case. When you fear they might, that's basically a minireligious argument and there is no way for your target to falsify your claim.
The only way to control your risk is still the way to control your risk...you make your evaluation of risks and how you control your exposure to your satisfaction, and you choose to do these things and act in ways consistent with those risk evaluations.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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neek
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neek
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:09 am |
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| altasnob wrote: | | I think it is a trade off between financial carnage and human carnage as you state. But you can do things that help lessen the human carnage. Increase health care capacity to be able to handle a higher surge (with adequate PPE). Test and track, quarantine, test for anti-bodies, try to get an actual idea of where the virus is spreading so you can be more intelligent on where to lock down and where to ease up. |
Your analysis is great IMO but I'm still having trouble seeing it purely as a slider. i.e. above you're kind of saying "it's zero sum...but it's not zero sum." Improving healthcare would be good for both the economy and for saving lives. Minor point perhaps but if people see it as a choice between dying of a virus and starving to death, they'll simply die of despair.
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neek
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neek
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:20 am |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Once again, needing to use claims like 'first level' thinking to imply error rather than showing it. I'll simply claim your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order thinking is insufficient to my n+1th thinking, where n is whatever level you're claiming for your take. |
I hope it's clear that I mean this sort of thing as a challenge, not an insult. Many folks here seem to simply tune you out or brag about how they've ignored you, but I think that's lame. But this argument of individualism as everything is getting pretty boring. Perhaps I'll go re-read The Fountainhead and at least experience some good literature in the process.
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:21 am |
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| neek wrote: | | Your analysis is great IMO but I'm still having trouble seeing it purely as a slider. i.e. above you're kind of saying "it's zero sum...but it's not zero sum." Improving healthcare would be good for both the economy and for saving lives. Minor point perhaps but if people see it as a choice between dying of a virus and starving to death, they'll simply die of despair. |
The reality is that only they can make that choice, and being angry someone else won't make it for them doesn't change that.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:32 am |
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| neek wrote: | | I hope it's clear that I mean this sort of thing as a challenge, not an insult. Many folks here seem to simply tune you out or brag about how they've ignored you, but I think that's lame. But this argument of individualism as everything is getting pretty boring. Perhaps I'll go re-read The Fountainhead and at least experience some good literature in the process. |
Ok that is good to know, thank you. I was perceiving it as sophistry and attempt at unearned leverage, as my last response indicated. I appreciate the inside take on that.
On the other bit...it doesn't matter if it's boring. Just like it doesn't matter if someone finds math boring. It is part of the world, and the sooner one gets comfortable with said fact, the better off everyone is because they make better decisions.
Look at the reality...there is not one person here making an argument they didn't decide upon as an individual. There's not one person judging all the other other arguments they see without using their own individual values. There's not one person here making an argument on *any* basis other than their *individual* goals. Which can include goals for other people, too. (Even what you want for someone else is *still* about your goals and values). There are no 'group' decisions, or wants, or needs...only individual ones. These facts are not popular but it doesn't un-fact them.
I could come up with numerous example arguments putting a highlight on each...but I don't want to bore you more! LOL
I respect the tuning out if the arguments aren't someone's cup of tea, but the ones humblebragging about ignore crack me up. They're telling everyone about their lack of self control, even while, in one notable case, they are clearly not really sticking with their oh so public proud proclamation of ignoring ideas they dislike. Why you'd even think that was a good thing (ignoring what you disagree with because you disagree with it) mystifies me.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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altasnob
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altasnob
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:34 am |
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| neek wrote: | | Your analysis is great IMO but I'm still having trouble seeing it purely as a slider. i.e. above you're kind of saying "it's zero sum...but it's not zero sum." |
You are correct, and I should strike my statement that I think it is a trade off between financial carnage and human carnage. The countries who are poised to crush the US economically in the next year (South Korea, Taiwan, China, Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, Germany, New Zealand, Australia) all acted aggressively and early to halt the virus, and consequently suffered acute short term financial loss, but are now in a position where both their economy can grow, and their citizens remain safe from the virus, as compared to the US.
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:36 am |
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Does anybody really think that opening up restaurants while requiring social distancing and precautions is going to be a money maker? That still means fewer customers. Or is the plan to go back to pre-covid conditions and make like Sweden?
We have no access to quick testing. The way things have been going, we may have a vaccine by the time mass testing becomes available. And, the vaccine will probably be administered just like the testing has been, celebrities and mega rich will be first, next medical workers, then onward working down the ladder of money. After all, our health care system is the best that your money can buy.
I am not optimistic at all. I think it is time to take the Demon Dog out on a walk. The sun is shining and it will be the warmest day yet.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:40 am |
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Neek, I've been thinking about your critique and my assertion about the financial carnage is not detailed enough to be supportable. I failed to differentiate between the impacts of govt imposed events vs the impact of market events due to people's chosen behavioral changes.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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MtnGoat
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MtnGoat
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:42 am |
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| treeswarper wrote: | | Does anybody really think that opening up restaurants while requiring social distancing and precautions is going to be a money maker? That still means fewer customers. Or is the plan to go back to pre-covid conditions and make like Sweden? |
I'm not sure. These things are why you let people choose their risk judgments and actions.
There's no expert who does know and no expert who can know.
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock. - Will Rogers
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neek
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neek
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Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:27 am |
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| MtnGoat wrote: | | Ok that is good to know, thank you. I was perceiving it as sophistry and attempt at unearned leverage, as my last response indicated. I appreciate the inside take on that.
On the other bit...it doesn't matter if it's boring. Just like it doesn't matter if someone finds math boring. It is part of the world, and the sooner one gets comfortable with said fact, the better off everyone is because they make better decisions.
Look at the reality...there is not one person here making an argument they didn't decide upon as an individual. There's not one person judging all the other other arguments they see without using their own individual values. There's not one person here making an argument on *any* basis other than their *individual* goals. Which can include goals for other people, too. (Even what you want for someone else is *still* about your goals and values). There are no 'group' decisions, or wants, or needs...only individual ones. These facts are not popular but it doesn't un-fact them.
I could come up with numerous example arguments putting a highlight on each...but I don't want to bore you more! LOL
I respect the tuning out if the arguments aren't someone's cup of tea, but the ones humblebragging about ignore crack me up. They're telling everyone about their lack of self control, even while, in one notable case, they are clearly not really sticking with their oh so public proud proclamation of ignoring ideas they dislike. Why you'd even think that was a good thing (ignoring what you disagree with because you disagree with it) mystifies me. |
will keep this short because it's nice out...
If someone finds math boring, I want nothing to do with them!
It sounds like you're getting into the idea that only the individual can experience consciousness, which so far seems likely. Yet there could be all kinds of complex systems behavior we don't understand. At any rate, I don't feel good when I put someone else's life at risk, so I try to avoid that (as do you, undoubtedly). And I don't trust others to make decisions that are in my best interest (surely you are in the same boat). I don't currently buy the idea that there's no such thing as a group need (humans won't survive outside of a group anyway), but it seems like we could quickly get into the weeds as far as the coronavirus is concerned. My personal values say it's hiking time so yeah I've got some bias toward getting things opened back up asap!
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