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Cyclopath
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PostSun May 17, 2020 10:00 am 
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If you're going to go, just go.  You don't need our permission, and you don't gain anything by upsetting people who are concerned about their communities.
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treeswarper
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PostSun May 17, 2020 10:11 am 
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Joseph wrote:
what history ?   Be specific

Let me see, we'll start with the 1918 flu pandemic.  Lots of reading there.  The Gunnison example is a good one for you to look at.  Then you can go backwards in time to Europe's Black Death (Plague) days.  There was more than one.  I'm thinking 1300s or 1400s will provide you with some reading.  That was definitely spread by travelers. The death toll was high and afterwards, laborers (serfs) who survived were able to bargain for better pay. Lots of reading available about that.  Google is your friend.   

Our domestic smallpox plague amongst the tribal folks might have a bit of reading available.  That was also spread by people traveling about the country.  Google again could be your friend.

It isn't rocket science to find info on historical pandemics.  It worries me that you were unable to do so.  If you are reading challenged, PBS has documentaries on pandemics.  I'm thinking they have something on all of my examples. 

There, I've taken the time to give you a start.  Go for it.   

I kinda feel sorry now for middle school teachers after writing this.

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Joseph
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PostSun May 17, 2020 11:47 am 
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Randito wrote:
Joseph wrote:
Now tell me the "health expert" who says that driving over a mountain pass in the north cascades will spread the virus.  I'll wait.

As long as you stay in your car, no problem.

But if stop to buy gas and sundries at a convenience store and don't bother to practice social distancing because you feel fine,  yep there is a risk of transmission.  Many people have very mild or no symptoms, but are shedding virus unknowingly.

My neighbor was in Hawaii in early March,  but during flight back, he started feeling crappy, nothing severe.  He was tested and the results were positive, he was unknowingly spreading for several days, including on his return flight.

Anyway all you are doing is telling everyone that it's all about you and your right to do whatever you want regardless of what impact it could have on others.

Glad my kids grew out of that phase by high school. 

What's your excuse for still thinking like a middle schooler?

Not at all. You got it way wrong.  You act like I'm going to travel around a lick things and breathe on people. LOL.   I think I can take precautions on the east side of the mountains just as I do here on the west side of the mountains.  Yes I might get gas at a gas station !  Horrors!  I might even get a burger at a burger stand - horrors!   OMG - lets all cower under our beds until its 100% safe !!   The % of deaths in Wash state due to covid-19 is 0.012%.  For that I am to stay at home ?
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treeswarper
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PostSun May 17, 2020 2:31 pm 
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Another reading assignment for Joseph.  If you can't take the time, this doctor advocates being tough and continuing with the stay at home treatment.  It is hard to do which might be why you can't do it and are using fear as a label for tough people who can stick it out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-sanjay-gupta-if-the-united-states-were-my-patient/ar-BB14cuvY

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Randito
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PostSun May 17, 2020 4:14 pm 
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Joseph wrote:
The % of deaths in Wash state due to covid-19 is 0.012%. 

Show your math that for March and April COVID-19 deaths were that percentage of total deaths in Washington.
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Backpackapalooza
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PostSun May 17, 2020 6:25 pm 
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That's not how that number is calculated. The number is meant to be "what are the chances of anyone in the State of Washington dying from Covid-19". It's not accurate to do it as a percentage of who was tested since that's a very small percent of the population. We don't really have an accurate number but if you divide the total deaths by the total population, you get a very small percentage. That's his point. The risk to the average person is very low. Obviously risks go up a lot for the more vulnerable populations, and those are the ones who should be self isolating.
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Randito
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PostSun May 17, 2020 6:32 pm 
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Backpackapalooza wrote:
That's not how that number is calculated. The number is meant to be "what are the chances of anyone in the State of Washington dying from Covid-19". It's not accurate to do it as a percentage of who was tested since that's a very small percent of the population. We don't really have an accurate number but if you divide the total deaths by the total population, you get a very small percentage. That's his point. The risk to the average person is very low. Obviously risks go up a lot for the more vulnerable populations, and those are the ones who should be self isolating.

Why are you answering a question not posed to you?

In any event actual numbers and formulas for calculation have not been presented.   Which was the question.

The risk of contracting the virus and what health consequences it has for you personally is only part of the equation.  A responsible person also will consider what effect on others there might be if they are unknowingly infected and spreading the infection.
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neek
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PostSun May 17, 2020 6:44 pm 
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Randito wrote:
Why are you answering a question not posed to you?

Same reason I am, because it's obvious and you shouldn't have to ask: total deaths (992) divided by total population (7615000).  Yes the "political hack" comment (and then doubling down!) was silly, but it doesn't follow that he makes reckless decisions.  But Cyclo said it best above.  This whole sub-discussion didn't need to happen.
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Malachai Constant
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PostSun May 17, 2020 6:48 pm 
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Excuse me but WTF does this discussion have to do with North Cascade and Chinook Pass?

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"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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Backpackapalooza
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PostSun May 17, 2020 7:45 pm 
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Technically nothing but as you can read and know full well, it veered to "now that's it's open, don't go". And a classic online debate ensued.
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Cyclopath
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PostSun May 17, 2020 8:52 pm 
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Malachai Constant wrote:
Excuse me but WTF does this discussion have to do with North Cascade and Chinook Pass?

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Edit to add: everyone has already heard that they should stay home, and why.  People are making their choices, with access to all the same information the rest of us have.  Nobody is going to cancel vacation plans because a stranger on the internet told them to.  Some people feed on negativity, say "don't come here" and they'll do it to spite you.  Nothing good will come of this kind of discussion.
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treeswarper
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PostMon May 18, 2020 7:32 am 
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Malachai Constant wrote:
Excuse me but WTF does this discussion have to do with North Cascade and Chinook Pass?

It has to do with traveling and spreading a virus.  Historically speaking, this is the way pandemics start and spread.

It is alleged that the first case of Covid in Okanogan County was a person from Seattle who "escaped" to his vacation home in the Methow. 

The local tribe is concerned because of the past history of their decimation due to smallpox.

Now with an easier route open, well, time will tell.  As for Chinook, the danger may be from the opposite direction as Yakima County has been in the news for having one of the highest infection rates in the nation, per capita.

We're doomed to repeat history because people have no patience and haven't saved up for emergencies and are just plain weak when it comes to having to make a little bit of sacrifice like not traveling or saving up instead of getting another tattoo.  Yup, weak.  Stay tuned for the next eruption of cases.

I give up.

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What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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SwitchbackFisher
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PostMon May 18, 2020 11:20 pm 
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We're all adults and can make our own decisions on what we can and can't do within the confines of what is legal. I would just ask myself if what I am doing might expose myself, and if it does would I be ok with getting someone I care about sick over it. I have been hiking several times now, I haven't seen a single person on the trail, but if there are cars in the lot I go to the next TH I might want to do. Just because that's what I feel right doing does not mean that's what is right for other people to do. Again were all adults and can make our own decisions, whether you agree or not is fine. There is no need to insult each other and be nasty because you may have differing opinions.

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I may not be the smartest, I may not be the strongest, but I don't want to be. I only want to be the best I can be.
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altasnob
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PostTue May 19, 2020 9:39 am 
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Sucks that highway 20 is open but North Cascades National Park is closed. With cloudy weather forecast for the holiday weekend, even more people than normal will be focused along the east side (Washington Pass) and Methow.

Lots of nwhikers argue that you should just go to a TH without any other cars. Easier said than done. 99% of hikers in WA are not nwhikers hardmen/woman. They don't know the WA mountains like the back of their hand. They are not comfortable bushwaking. They want hikes that offer a lot of bang for the buck, and a guaranteed return. They will continue to hike on the trails that get lots of TRs on nwhikers, WTA, ect. That is just the way it is (and since this behavior cannot be changed, there is nothing wrong with this).

While I personally would have preferred a very firm, militaristic lock down that reduced viral transmissions to close to zero, the opportunity for this has passed. Today, people are going to go recreate regardless of what the governor says, or what parks are open. Because of this, they might was well open all public land so spreading out becomes somewhat easier.
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stever
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PostThu May 21, 2020 5:31 pm 
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Info on Chinook and Cayuse Pass from the DOT.

https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/travel/highways-bridges/passes/chinook-and-cayuse/home
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