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neek
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 9:29 am 
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Schenk wrote:
One reason they are invalid is because these comparisons do not take into account the subjective aspect of danger that can be mitigated by the individual.

That's an important point, illustrated by the cartoon above.  I once compared the relative safety of flying, driving, and biking.  Per time, they're all in the same ballpark.  However, in a plane, you have zero control (practically speaking), aside from which airline/flight you choose.  On a bike, there are so many choices that heavily affect risk.  Route, style, gear, timing, how high you are, etc.  Driving is somewhere in between.  I'd rather die from my own incompetence than someone else's.  I think.

Schenk wrote:
Now, to a person looking in from the sidelines it could be humorously interpreted that I simply want more people to be afraid to go into the mountains because of falling trees, lightning, rattlesnakes, rabid raccoons and coyotes, hail, hantavirus, hornets, hypothermia, and bears. Ah, but that would be selfish.
But it is true, the mountains are dangerous. The more time you spend in the mountains, the more likely you are to die there! Stay out of them!

More specifically, they're only dangerous to those who litter, cut switchbacks, play music, leave bags of poo, ... smile.gif

As has been pointed out many times, the risk of death is 100%...
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Ski
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 9:55 am 
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To be fair, one should consider all possibilities.

The odds of dying playing Russian Roulette are are far greater than any "wilderness hazards" (including, but not limited to rabid raccoons.)

http://datagenetics.com/blog/february22016/index.html#:~:text=There%20is%20a%20one%20in,are%20located%20in%20adjacent%20chambers.

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I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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altasnob
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 9:55 am 
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Schenk wrote:
Same with drunk/impaired/distracted drivers. Take them out of the equation and driving becomes extremely safe, no matter how you look at it.

I don't like America's driving centric, sprawling, suburban, encroaching on wildlife culture, so I am biased. But I still contend driving is one of the most dangerous activities Americans engage in, even when you remove impaired driving from the statistics. In 2016, 28% of all traffic-related deaths in the US were alcohol related, meaning 72% are sober drivers who still end up killing themselves and others. Plus, even if you are the world's most perfect driver with an impeccable maintenance on your vehicle, you still have to worry about all the drunk/impaired/distracted drivers and other variables that are out of your control. No one can mitigate away all the dangers of driving.

Reading about one or two grizzly deaths in Montana over the course of a decade invokes a stronger human response than reading about 2,000 automobile deaths in Montana over the same period of time. The auto deaths are just seen as the cost of doing business. Society has brainwashed us into thinking wilderness activities are dangerous where as mundane, every day activities are somehow safe.
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Schenk
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 9:56 am 
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neek wrote:
More specifically, they're only dangerous to those who litter, cut switchbacks, play music, leave bags of poo, ... smile.gif

up.gif  up.gif  True dat yo

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Schenk
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 10:01 am 
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altasnob wrote:
In 2016, 28% of all traffic-related deaths in the US were alcohol related[/url], meaning 72% are sober drivers who still end up killing themselves and others.

Drinking is not the only thing drivers have direct control over for themselves.
The report you quoted also said this: "Drugs other than alcohol (legal and illegal) are involved in about 16% of motor vehicle crashes."
So, now we're down to 56% caused by sober people.
I wonder what percent of that remaining 56% sober group were distracted by other controllable factors like inattentive driving, making cell phone calls, texting, unruly kids, dropped cigg-y butts, spilled drinks, showing off, dogs on laps, etc...

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altasnob
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 10:06 am 
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Impaired would not only include alcohol but marijuana, illegal drugs, and one of the largest categories is prescribed drugs (just because a doctor hands you a drug and tells you that you are ok to drive does not mean you are ok to drive; it's also no defense to DUI). How many Americans are driving around right now who think they are legal to drive when in reality they would qualify as impaired? In Washington, impaired by any controlled substance is defined as "appreciably affected," i.e. if you take a prescription drug and drive and the drug appreciably affects your ability to drive, you are committing a DUI. I would agree with you if you use a wide definition of "distracted" and include those with impaired, that would account for, say, 90% of all vehicle deaths. But you cannot mitigate these dangers away. And then there is always the random tree/boulder falling on a car, a tire or something else coming off someone else's vehicle and killing you. A cop chasing a bad guy who ends up crashing into you, ect., ect.
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neek
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 10:28 am 
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I recall reading drowsy driving was about as dangerous as drunk driving.  Creepy to think of the number of times I've driven back from a hike half asleep.  Now I pull over to take a short rest the moment I feel it coming on.
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RayD
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the griz ate my pass
PostThu Aug 20, 2020 10:55 am 
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You are more likely to die laying on a mattress than hiking off trail.

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don't believe everything you think
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Slugman
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 10:57 am 
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The thread title made me think of Sleepless in Seattle, where a woman quips that you are more likely to be killed by a terrorist than to find a husband after turning 40. As stated in the movie, it may not be true but it feels true.  hmmm.gif

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“The jerking motion of a knee does not reflect the operation of a mind”  Slugman, January 24th 2020
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neek
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 11:19 am 
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How about this: Someone is more likely to drown you in a bathtub for pedantic arguing...
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neek
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 12:00 pm 
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Might be better to discuss in person.  Want to come check out my hot tub?
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Cyclopath
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 12:26 pm 
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altasnob wrote:
Reading about one or two grizzly deaths in Montana over the course of a decade invokes a stronger human response than reading about 2,000 automobile deaths in Montana over the same period of time. The auto deaths are just seen as the cost of doing business. Society has brainwashed us into thinking wilderness activities are dangerous where as mundane, every day activities are somehow safe.

It's human nature to become desensitized over time, including to the risks we take.
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coldrain108
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 12:46 pm 
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catsp wrote:
I generally agree, but not necessarily because the activities are dissimilar. What it really points to, IMO, is that many times such comparisons ignore that any one person's exposure to any specified risks might dramatically vary. So the mere "fact" that [some] number of people die every year from [some specified activity] is often entirely meaningless when it comes to evaluating the real risk posed to an actual person from a specified risk.

no no no...it could happen to anyone at anytime.  The great equalizer!

Isn't that the lame excuse when someone does something so completely stupid as to be unbelievable.

I guess that makes me an elitist.

Elite level non-stupidity.  But that is what you get when you have a "no fault" society where people need to be reminded not to eat the silica drying packet in the Mountain House food.

Really?  I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but really!?

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"The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing"  - Albert Einstein
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Pyrites
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 1:15 pm 
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If only this forum could recruit someone who knew something about actuarial science.

Best.
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Slugman
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PostThu Aug 20, 2020 1:36 pm 
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The forum is run by an actuary.

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“The jerking motion of a knee does not reflect the operation of a mind”  Slugman, January 24th 2020
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