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gb
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PostSat Aug 29, 2020 11:54 am 
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After a very pleasant July and an August slightly above normal, things look worse from the middle of next weekend and all the following week with 586 - 593 500mb heights through the period. At the warmest, a 600 height appears centered over Nevada, near the all-time national record height of 607. If this happens, freezing levels could be as high as 16,500' on the warmest days with low to mid-80's at 5000' pretty consistent. On the positive side, it should be great for a late summer resurgence of bugs.

Hopefully, this GFS model run is overstated in significance and duration. It has been very nice in the mountains lately with a lot of low to mid-60's temps.

Climate Prediction Center maps: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
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nordique
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PostMon Aug 31, 2020 12:48 pm 
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Gary, thanks again for the climate updates!  I'm hoping that cooler temps will end bug issues.
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drm
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PostMon Aug 31, 2020 3:36 pm 
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Bugs like hot temps, and a freeze kills them. But extended heat also dries things out and bugs like wet, at least mosquitoes do, not flies though. And a few lakes doesn't seem to make up for it. They like snowmelt puddles it seems to me.
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thunderhead
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PostMon Aug 31, 2020 4:14 pm 
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GFS likes to overdo most long range features a bit so i suspect it won't be record warmth but its definitely going to be warmer than normal.

And ya, agreed about mosquitos, i think.
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gb
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PostMon Aug 31, 2020 5:47 pm 
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drm wrote:
Bugs like hot temps, and a freeze kills them. But extended heat also dries things out and bugs like wet, at least mosquitoes do, not flies though. And a few lakes doesn't seem to make up for it. They like snowmelt puddles it seems to me.

For me the worst is Gnats and Horseflies. They and Black flies really enjoy warm to hot weather.....
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Bedivere
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PostMon Aug 31, 2020 8:27 pm 
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Was up at ~ 4200' Saturday and the only bugs of note were dragonflies at a small, shallow lake with swampy shores.

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JonnyQuest
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PostMon Aug 31, 2020 8:41 pm 
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A clue!
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drm
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PostTue Sep 01, 2020 8:08 am 
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Folks doing hikes that include water crossings should take this into account. This is a fairly extended heat wave, peaking apparently on the weekend. Water crossings could be very high by the weekend. Please take this into account when planning your Labor Day route.

I've done (or attempted) a lot of difficult crossing in Alaska and I've always felt the most important skill for difficult water crossings in knowing when it just won't go safely and being willing to turn back. Planning for morning crossings is a good idea but no guarantee if nights are warm or the source is far enough away that yesterday's melt is just arriving at your crossing in the morning.
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timberghost
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PostWed Sep 02, 2020 8:03 am 
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Do we get the high fluctuations in water levels this time of the year here? I haven't witnessed that
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pipedream
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PostWed Sep 02, 2020 11:50 am 
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There's very little snow left to melt, but if you were crossing a glacially-fed waterway it might be worth noting.

As for the bugs, I've found that they're not bad at all during the daytime along the I-90 corridor - it seems to be when the sun drops below the horizon and suddenly I'm the hottest thing around that they find me
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gb
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PostFri Sep 04, 2020 2:11 pm 
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The forecast from two weeks ago was pretty accurate as to the duration of this massive area of high pressure and the high freezing levels. We have seen several days already of freezing levels of 16,000'+ and the forecast shows the highest freezing levels Sunday and Monday. On Monday the freezing level may reach 17,000' to 17,500' especially in the south Cascades. As far as I know the record Western Washington freezing level was 17,300' on the day Seattle hit 103 degrees. Mountain 5000' temperatures have been more unpredictable and variable but with some low 80's. The 5000' temperatures probably do a weird switcheroo on Monday and Tuesday with 5000' temperatures cool particularly along and east of the crest for those days, but then warming back to 70's and lower 80's later in the week again.

Seattle, is, of course a different story because warm weather here depends on offshore flow. That will happen Monday through Thursday and record September highs are likely, then. Odd that that does not match up with peak 5000' temperatures in the Cascades.

Long term, cooling is not significant for yet another week or ten days. Freezing levels remain largely above 14,000'.
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BigBrunyon
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PostFri Sep 04, 2020 7:31 pm 
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These labor day weekend crowds best be ready to go hard in this heat. Competition sure to be tough gettin' in to various upper lakes

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CarriesNineFires
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PostFri Sep 04, 2020 9:36 pm 
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BigBrunyon wrote:
These labor day weekend crowds best be ready to go hard in this heat. Competition sure to be tough gettin' in to various upper lakes

Big Brunyon, you know as well as I that the unwashed masses will stop at nothing. Give them a tip of the cap and a sly wink and leave 'em to their fate.
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Forum Index > Trail Talk > Near record temperatures, heights & freezing levels next week?
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