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Tom
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Joined: 15 Dec 2001
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Tom
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 Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:28 pm |
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Sounds like the smoke will linger high enough not to significantly affect ground level air quality.
https://www.airnow.gov/
| Quote: | | Forecast Discussion: or Sep 29-Oct 4: We are expecting upper-level smoke from California wildfires to pass over our region beginning Tuesday evening and continuing at least into Thursday. Smoke may be visible, contributing to hazy skies and colorful sunsets, but likely having only moderate impact on ground-level air quality. Conditions may reach MODERATE throughout our jurisdiction of King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish Counties during that time, with the possibility for worse air quality at higher elevations. We will update the forecast if conditions change. |
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Cyclopath
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Joined: 20 Mar 2012
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Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
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Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:11 pm |
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adamschneider
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Joined: 14 Jul 2006
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Location: Portland, OR |
Driving past Goldendale just now, the top half of Mt. Adams was completely obscured by smoke, but Mt. Hood was fully visible. I guess the smoke is curling around Oregon and arriving in Washington from the west.
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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:16 pm |
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pipedream
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Joined: 14 Oct 2012
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Location: Formerly Seattle |
Noticeable smoke above 6k today in Snoqualmie Pass. I stayed below that level and the air quality seemed fine but the sunset and moonrise were both spectacular thru the smoke
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Fletcher
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Joined: 29 Jul 2009
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Fletcher
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:41 am |
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Can anyone make an educated guess as to what the smoke will be like up high and East of the crest Friday-Saturday? The webcams look horrible this morning and we are considering bailing on our trip.
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altasnob
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Joined: 29 Aug 2007
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Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:50 am |
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Cliff Mass seams to rely on this smoke forecast:
https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/
As of this writing, the farthest out the forecast goes is 5 am Saturday. Here is smoke at 6,000 ft:
Near surface forecast, which would be good for lowlands but I don't think would be as accurate for up in the mountains because I do not believe the model does a good job of taking into account the topography:
And vertically integrated, which is all the smoke above you in the atmosphere. Just because smoke is up high in the atmosphere does not mean air quality lower is bad.
Everything I have read shows the smoke improving from here on out. So the conditions should only get better, not worse, on your trip. Compared to what we were experiencing earlier this summer the smoke situation doesn't look bad, particularly if you are going North, or the Olympics.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
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gb
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:53 am |
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| Fletcher wrote: | | Can anyone make an educated guess as to what the smoke will be like up high and East of the crest Friday-Saturday? The webcams look horrible this morning and we are considering bailing on our trip. |
I haven't looked this morning. The big active fires are between San Francisco and Redding and the Creek fire west of Mammoth. NWS Discussion this morning says with southerly winds in our area more smoke may show up this evening, but the smoke from California stops being driven as much about late today, and in a day or two starts to go more easterly and then eventually southerly. There is not as much smoke filling the North Pacific as last time, so given any kind of airflow it will not take as long to clear. Winds here become more favorable late Friday and much more so Sunday or so. But that is from 36 hours ago.
Suggest looking at Windy, both the GFS and ECMWF at about 800mb (slider on right) and tracking the direction of winds from the fires and then the direction and strength of flow in our region with time. Then make a guesstimate. The only thing one does not really know is the exact elevation(s) of the smoke plume itself. Also as daytime is here look at visible satellite images to see the extent of smoke upwind from us.
Yesterday, in the AM the smoke ceiling in the North Cascades was about 8500' and descended slightly during the day. But driving home Three Fingers had a smoke layer about 500' below the summit (6300') and the Olympics were not visible at all.....
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neek
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Joined: 12 Sep 2011
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neek
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:55 am |
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Was indeed pretty bad at Slate Pass yesterday but came in fast and could probably leave fast so I have no idea about Friday.
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altasnob
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Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:02 am |
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Looks good to me right now at Paradise. For comparison, during bad smoke we had earlier you could not see the mountain on this cam.
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