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gb
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 7:41 am 
If the GFS is right, there would be record rains around the 24th to the 25th particularly in the Northern Olympics and the North Cascades. Several additional storms probably mostly on Vancouver Island make it look like the rains in that area would be historic over a several day period. This is still a ways out but it consistently shows up with strong winds. Perhaps the rains are overstated.....

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gb
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 7:53 am 
This what the CPC says in the 6-10 day outlook. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html You can also find the 8-14 day outlook beneath in the next paragraphs. "Second atmospheric river"

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olderthanIusedtobe
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 8:13 am 
We sure could use some rain. Although the way this year is going, it will bring catastrophic flooding along with it.

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Hutch
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 12:54 pm 
Would normally be kinda bummed for Fall to come so quickly, but these fires/smoke + the crowded trails and outdoors spots before that = bring on the rain.

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Kim Brown
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 12:56 pm 
olderthanIusedtobe wrote:
Although the way this year is going, it will bring catastrophic flooding along with it.
Mudslides after the fires denude (or, rather nude? Nudify?) the hills. frown.gif

"..living on the east side of the Sierra world be ideal - except for harsher winters and the chance of apocalyptic fires burning the whole area." Bosterson, NWHiker's marketing expert
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Chief Joseph
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 1:19 pm 
olderthanIusedtobe wrote:
We sure could use some rain. Although the way this year is going, it will bring catastrophic flooding along with it.
Exactly. Flooding, probably another hurricane or two in the SE, a NW Volcanic Eruption, possibly Glacier Peak and to cap off the year a major earthquake. Hopefully I will be in Idaho when/if Glacier Peak explodes. O' and almost forgot about the most recent uptick in seismic activity in Yellowstone. Apocalypse Now? I just watched that movie a couple of months ago, actor Vic Marrow was killed during the filming..

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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gb
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PostFri Sep 18, 2020 3:38 pm 
Chief Joseph wrote:
olderthanIusedtobe wrote:
We sure could use some rain. Although the way this year is going, it will bring catastrophic flooding along with it.
Exactly. Flooding, probably another hurricane or two in the SE and then to cap off the year, a NW Volcanic Eruption, possibly Glacier Peak and to cap off the year a major earthquake. Hopefully I will be in Idaho when/if Glacier Peak explodes. O' and almost forgot about the most recent uptick in seismic activity in Yellowstone. Apocalypse Now? I just watched that movie a couple of months ago, actor Vic Marrow was killed during the filming..
Oh please go camping in the Hoh River drainage the 23rd through 26th! No need for a tent, it's September.

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gb
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PostSat Sep 19, 2020 9:13 am 
This from the NWS Discussion this morning. The forecaster seems to have about the most experience there.
Quote:
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Hello Fall!!! Extended models in good agreement again this morning. Very fall like front approaching the area Tuesday with weak warm front out ahead of the much stronger cold front brushing the northwest part of the area. Operational models bringing the first full day of fall in with gusto with a well organized front moving into the area Wednesday. Model ensemble solutions getting on board with the operational run solutions. NBM QPF in excess of 2 inches on the North Coast and greater than a half inch over the interior yet the pops were just in the chance and likely categories. Have increased the NBM pops into the likely and categorical categories for Wednesday. Windy conditions possible coast and Northwest Interior Wednesday as well. Models keep the fall weather pattern intact Thursday and Friday with a pair of systems moving through the area. The system on Friday has the potential to be another significant rain producer. Highs in the 60s and lower 70s Tuesday lowering into the lower to mid 60s for the remainder of the period. Lows in the 50s. Felton
While it had earlier looked that the system would stall over the Olympics, it now looks progressive. So rain may be heavy but not long lasting. Still, given that it is September some daily rainfall records could be broken and over several days 2-4" of rain is not beyond the pail. The weather will be much better further south and east but even Oregon may get quite a bit of rain - currently looking like on the 25th. The area of the Central Oregon and Clackamas Co. fires got from 1/2" to 1-1/2" of rain yesterday. The Downey fire probably saw also about 1/2" or so.

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zephyr
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PostSat Sep 19, 2020 10:23 am 
gb wrote:
but even Oregon may get quite a bit of rain - currently looking like on the 25th. The area of the Central Oregon and Clackamas Co. fires got from 1/2" to 1-1/2" of rain yesterday. The Downey fire probably saw also about 1/2" or so.
That's wonderful news. ~z

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gb
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PostMon Sep 21, 2020 1:00 pm 
This does look like record rains for September. UW 84 hour rainfall ending 5pm Thursday:

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PostThu Sep 24, 2020 6:33 am 
The amount of rain thus far has been extraordinary for September, particularly in the Mt. Baker/Baker Lake area and the Olympics. 24 hour rainfall at Mt. Baker Lodge was over 8", which is one of heaviest 24 hour rainfall amounts recorded in Washington since the Mt. Rainier and Suiattle floods in the mid-2000's. The rainfall rate had several hours with .65"/hr and a peak of an amazing .8"/hr for one hour. (Typical strong winter storms sometimes reach .4" per hour with extreme outliers of .5" in an hour.) The Olympics generally got 4+ to 6" in this period. The rains have been heavy elsewhere in the Cascades, but generally in the 2-3" range.

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PostThu Sep 24, 2020 1:19 pm 
Up to almost 10" in the last 30 hours at Mt. Baker Ski Area. Fortunately this is early in the fall so river and stream levels are at seasonal lows, but even the 3" atop I-90 should help start the replenishment of incredibly low Lake Kecheelus. Today's rain seems quite colder than yesterday's - chilly enough to fire-up the wood stove.

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Cyclopath
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PostFri Sep 25, 2020 6:48 pm 
3 day rain totals

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Bedivere
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PostSat Sep 26, 2020 12:20 pm 
^^Not particularly record-setting or historic. Too bad so little of it made it's way East of the crest where they could really use it.

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PostSun Sep 27, 2020 12:36 am 
That's thru 8am Fri. It rained quite hard Fri. afternoon in many locations, incl. the Mt. Baker Ski Area which topped-out somewhere around 13.5" from 6am Wed -> 5pm Fri. They got more up there today, too., around 1.75" more

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