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Bootpathguy Member
Joined: 18 Jun 2015 Posts: 1790 | TRs | Pics Location: United States |
Experience is what'cha get, when you get what'cha don't want
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moonspots Happy Curmudgeon
Joined: 03 Feb 2007 Posts: 2456 | TRs | Pics Location: North Dakota |
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moonspots
Happy Curmudgeon
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Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:40 pm
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Bootpathguy wrote: | Make it $5,000 |
"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
"Out, OUT you demons of Stupidity"! - St Dogbert, patron Saint of Technology
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fourteen410 Member
Joined: 23 May 2008 Posts: 2628 | TRs | Pics
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Yeah, something smelled off about this one.
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Slugman It’s a Slugfest!
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 Posts: 16874 | TRs | Pics
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Slugman
It’s a Slugfest!
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:10 am
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When I read that they “got a tip” on where she was, then she walked out with minimal assistance after 12 days, I knew this was not a lost hiker story. Then the family’s strange account just confirmed it. Now finding out that there really was no water makes their story impossible.
We may never know, but a personal crisis of some sort seems most likely.
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Sculpin Member
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 Posts: 1384 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:06 am
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Sgt. Darrell Cashin, the guy who cast doubt on the story, said:
"'If she had been drinking that [Virgin River] water, unless she had some really high immune system, she would’ve been very, very ill and probably unable to come out on her own,' Cashin says. 'She either took a lot of water with her or had another clean water source that was near here, but the Virgin River is not that source.'"
The article also stated that "Cashin says it’s a 'high possibility' Courtier would have died if she was drinking the river water for 12 days."
This is absolutely nuts. Totally batshit nuts. The guy has no idea what he is talking about, and this kind of stupid stuff has consequences when we see people become severely dehydrated when they are afraid of water.
It typically takes a week or so to get sick from water-borne pathogens. My assessment is that there would be a good chance she would not be sick at all after drinking the river water for 12 days. But it is also possible she would have been somewhat dehydrated and be suffering from diarrhea. But dead from the water? Not a chance.
All that being said, the story is indeed suspicious. I do agree that it is unlikely that she was on the Virgin River and not found for 12 days if she wanted to be found.
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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JonnyQuest Member
Joined: 10 Dec 2013 Posts: 593 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin wrote: | It typically takes a week or so to get sick from water-borne pathogens. |
True for many of the common bacteria as well as microorganisms like giardia and cryptosporidium. But a toxin from cyanobacteria would likely act much faster, if indeed it's actually present in high concentrations as the story suggests.
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neek Member
Joined: 12 Sep 2011 Posts: 2337 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle, WA |
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neek
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:28 am
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Slugman It’s a Slugfest!
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 Posts: 16874 | TRs | Pics
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Slugman
It’s a Slugfest!
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:30 am
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“The cyanobacteria from a toxic algal bloom detected in early July in the north fork of the Virgin River remains dangerously high, prompting park officials to recommend that visitors avoid all contact in the river until further notice.”
So, don’t even touch the water.
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slabbyd Member
Joined: 21 Jun 2005 Posts: 293 | TRs | Pics
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slabbyd
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:42 am
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She was "found" within 1/2 mile of the Grotto shuttle stop. This would be like loosing your child in a busy Safeway, combing the store for twelve days, then realizing they've been in the candy aisle the whole time living off Skittles. The story makes no sense. And the current toxic algae bloom in Zion is apparently no joke.
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Sculpin Member
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 Posts: 1384 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:50 am
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From the water quality page:
"All water column samples taken without disturbing the cyanobacterial mats have been free of anatoxin-a."
Toxins from cyanobacteria are serious business. But with nobody walking in the river right now, very little is being released. She might have felt sick, she might not have.
The guy said that her story was bogus because if she was drinking the water she would most likely be dead, and that is just not true. The fact is that we don't know. There are enough suspicious aspects in this story that we don't need to over-egg the pudding, as the British say.
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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JonnyQuest Member
Joined: 10 Dec 2013 Posts: 593 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin wrote: | There are enough suspicious aspects in this story that we don't need to over-egg the pudding |
My plan to loop in trail running on Tiger just got shot down...
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Malachai Constant Member
Joined: 13 Jan 2002 Posts: 16092 | TRs | Pics Location: Back Again Like A Bad Penny |
Probably best to just let the family handle it. She now appears safe and that is good news. Not really a hiking story.
"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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Sculpin Member
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 Posts: 1384 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:24 am
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neek wrote: | Really? Given the river is so toxic now the Park Service is telling people not to even come in contact with it? |
Two things going on here. Cashin said:
"If she had been drinking that water, unless she had some really high immune system, she would’ve been very, very ill and probably unable to come out on her own..."
This is the part that is batshit nuts. When he mentions her immune system, he is not talking about toxin from cyanobacteria, since your immune system won't help you with poison. Crypto, giardia, etc., they just don't kill within 12 days of ingestion.
The discovery of cyanobacteria toxin relates to a dog dying after eating algae back in July. If our lost hiker was wading into the river to get water over algae mats and stirring them up, she may very well have gotten sick. But if she leaned over from the shore and scooped water into a bottle, there is no evidence - none whatsoever - that she would get sick from anatoxin. Anatoxin has not been detected at all in the water column, other than immediately after the benthic layer is stirred up by "a water quality scientist walking through."
It is not the possibility of her getting sick but rather the certainty that I object to. Wikipedia indicates that a single human death is suspected to have been cause by anatoxin. One!
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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Kascadia Member
Joined: 03 Feb 2014 Posts: 651 | TRs | Pics
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Kascadia
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:01 am
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My familiarity with blue-green algae toxicity is via horses/water tanks. I agree about the immune comment, he may understand consequences but not mechanics. That's not unusual, though. From a vet toxicologist:
https://equine.ca.uky.edu/news-story/blue-green-algae-poisoning-horses
"These algae can produce several major toxins. Some algae produce potent neurotoxins that cause clinical signs such as muscle tremors, respiratory distress, seizures, profuse salivation, diarrhea, and rapid death within minutes to hours. Other algae can produce hepatotoxins (toxins affecting the liver) that can cause acute death or a more delayed death after signs of acute liver failure occur. Photosensitization, a skin condition affecting nonpigmented areas of skin, can occur in animals that survive the acute stages of liver damage. Other types of algal toxins occur in other regions of the world. Blue-green algae toxins are released when algal cells are damaged and die in the water (e.g., after water is treated with an algaecide such as copper sulfate), or when ingested water reaches the animal's digestive tract and disrupts cells, releasing the toxins.
Most animals exposed to blue-green algae toxins die acutely. Treatment is supportive and symptomatic. In some cases animals can recover, but death typically occurs so quickly that the animals are found dead near the water source."
And yes, horses will wade into a body of water to drink - although not a water tank (which obviously is dynamically different from a flowing river.... vs. pooling water).
From last summer: https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/08/27/blue-green-algae-dog-deaths
It is as though I had read a divine text, written into the world itself, not with letters but rather with essential objects, saying:
Man, stretch thy reason hither, so thou mayest comprehend these things. Johannes Kepler
It is as though I had read a divine text, written into the world itself, not with letters but rather with essential objects, saying:
Man, stretch thy reason hither, so thou mayest comprehend these things. Johannes Kepler
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Anne Elk BrontosaurusTheorist
Joined: 07 Sep 2018 Posts: 2419 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle |
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Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:46 pm
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I suppose it's bad form to criticize and arm-chair quarterback such incidents, but it sounds a little bogus to me, too. Since she was found by SAR in a reasonably short period of time (from the date of inception of the GFMe), I doubt they could have run thru the $12K raised, and I hope they donate the balance to SAR.
GFMe doesn't take kindly to bogus claims, and neither does LE, that's for sure.
"There are yahoos out there. It’s why we can’t have nice things." - Tom Mahood
"There are yahoos out there. It’s why we can’t have nice things." - Tom Mahood
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