Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > New coronavirus cases doubling in 2 weeks in western Washington
Previous :: Next Topic  
Author Message
Joey
verrry senior member



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 2306 | TRs
Location: Redmond
Joey
  Top

verrry senior member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 5:55 am 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Johns Hopkins University is widely regarded as an authoritative source for COVID-19 data.  Each day they update a cumulative count of cases and deaths for all counties in the USA.  I wrote code that runs each night and (1) converts the Johns Hopkins cumulative counts into daily counts and then (2) converts those daily counts into 7-day-average counts for each of the prior 14 days.

Anyone can download the daily count data as csv files from my server and make your own charts, graphs, maps, whatever.  This daily count data begins in March 2020 and is always current through the prior day.  For download instructions, see the “Map tips”.

Below is a link to an interactive map I produce that can show you the 7-day-average counts for cases or deaths.  The map has overlay layers you can turn on/off to see that data by county, by state or totals for the USA.  When the map opens it is centered on Washington and the overlay that is ‘on’ shows new cases by county.  Click any symbol to see the details for the prior 14 days.  Each daily number in the detail popup is a 7 day average.

The map is automatically updated each night so it can always show the recent coronavirus trend over the prior 14 days.

Legend:
Circle = Prior 14  days
Triangle = Prior 7 days
Red = Bad, cases (or deaths) are increasing
Green = Good, cases (or deaths) are decreasing

Everyone is welcome to share this information and map link however they please.  And if you do share the map link then please encourage people to read the "Map tips" (link in upper left corner) so they learn how to turn different overlay layers on/off and otherwise get the most benefit from the map.

If you are not turning different overlay layers on/off then you are missing much of the information the map can show you.  Need help with that?  Please read the "Map tips".

Open the 7-day-average map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=47.249407,-121.091309&zoom=7&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=County_boundaries,State_boundary,County_7_day_average_cases&txtfile=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/disaster/coronavirus/covid_14_day_average.txt
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 9936 | TRs
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
  Top

Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 9:22 am 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
So far, our county is at a plateau.   One or two or no cases a day.  Hope we can keep it that way.

--------------
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
zephyr
aka friendly hiker



Joined: 21 Jun 2009
Posts: 2397 | TRs
Location: West Seattle
zephyr
  Top

aka friendly hiker
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 12:32 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Joey wrote:
I wrote code that runs each night and (1) converts the Johns Hopkins cumulative counts into daily counts and then (2) converts those daily counts into 7-day-average counts for each of the prior 14 days.

Thanks Joey for your efforts and contribution.  This pandemic is like a wildfire now.   frown.gif 

This is breaking news this morning in The Seattle TimesGov. Inslee orders sweeping restrictions on indoor gatherings, restaurants, bars, gyms as COVID-19 cases surge in Washington state.   There's a link to the livestream in the article.   

Here is the WA state tv link (the presentation has just ended and the archive will be available soon.)   ~z

.
.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Joey
verrry senior member



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 2306 | TRs
Location: Redmond
Joey
  Top

verrry senior member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 12:45 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
And for those planning to get together with *anyone* not from your own household over the holidays, please reconsider and call off those plans.

Recently one of my brothers had a house guest.  Not too long afterwards his whole family tested positive and his wife wound up in the ICU.  She is still there as I type this.  At least she does not need a ventilator and apparently is on the desired recovery track.  But it is a slow and agonizing process for all concerned.

If you skip the holiday visits this year then hopefully everyone in your circle will still be alive for a visit after vaccines are widely available.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
graffiti
Member
Member


Joined: 17 Oct 2011
Posts: 273 | TRs
Location: Olympia, WA
graffiti
  Top

Member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 1:14 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Joey wrote:
Recently one of my brothers had a house guest.  Not too long afterwards his whole family tested positive and his wife wound up in the ICU.  She is still there as I type this.

Somewhat the same story here. A casual friend had a party. 16 people came (all in their 40's - 50's) and one was positive but had zero symptoms. Within days, 11 people tested positive and had symptoms. One went in to the hospital and recently passed away.

It's a real thing. This stuff can be dangerous. Is everyone going to have a similar experience? No. Will you? Definitely maybe.

--------------
And the meek shall inherit the Earth...um...if that's ok with you.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



Joined: 07 Sep 2018
Posts: 1253 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Anne Elk
  Top

BrontosaurusTheorist
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 2:10 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Thanks, Joey, for this new input, and all your good work.  up.gif

On a related note, I stumbled on this interactive map that enables you to calculate the odds you will be exposed to corona by county, depending on the size of the gathering (note slider at lower left of the page).  Note their caveat: " by default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported (5:1 ascertainment bias). In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

I guess it's a chart for people who like to gamble.  Do ya feel lucky?   huh.gif

--------------
"There are yahoos out there.  It’s why we can’t have nice things."  - Tom Mahood
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Joey
verrry senior member



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 2306 | TRs
Location: Redmond
Joey
  Top

verrry senior member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 3:22 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Here is Inslee's new order.  Effective midnight Monday.
Is it strict? Yes
Is it necessary? Absolutely

https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamations/COVID%2019%20November%20Statewide%20Restrictions.pdf

Says in part:

1.Indoor Social Gatherings with people from outside your household are prohibited unless they (a) quarantine for fourteen days (14) prior to the social gathering; or (b) quarantine for seven (7) days prior to the social gathering and receive a negative COVID-19 test result no more than 48-hours prior to the gathering. A household is defined as individuals residing in the same domicile.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Randito
Snarky Member



Joined: 27 Jul 2008
Posts: 7587 | TRs
Location: Bellevue at the moment.
Randito
  Top

Snarky Member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 3:42 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Interesting bit on what is possible with leadership from the top and a population that understands how serious infectious disease can be.

Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 9936 | TRs
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
  Top

Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 5:07 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Ruh roh, this just in.  From the North county paper:


We will be covering this release from North Valley Hosp. District about positive cases of COVID-19 at the Extended Care in our next issue, that and the fact that Oroville High School had at least one student test positive for COVID-19:

North Valley Hospital District
2h

·
The North Valley Extended Care regrets to announce that six residents and several employees have tested positive for COVID-19.  At this time, one resident has been hospitalized, but all other residents and employees are only experiencing minor to no symptoms.
The residents that have tested positive are cohorted and quarantined, and the employees are quarantining at home.
The initial positive case was discovered with routine testing and subsequent tests were conducted with symptom onset or known exposure.  As we have learned from other nursing home outbreaks it is likely we will experience additional positive cases in the next few days.
We are working with Okanogan Public Health and following all CDC guidelines to contain the virus as quickly as possible. We will share more information as it becomes available.

--------------
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



Joined: 07 Sep 2018
Posts: 1253 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Anne Elk
  Top

BrontosaurusTheorist
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 5:58 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
One thing I don't get re Inslee's order is this: what's the point of prohibitions that are unenforceable? You can forbid public gatherings and force restaurants to close and penalize them,  but nobody's going to be knocking on your door checking how many peeps are at your house on T-day.  Just sayin'.

In contrast, when I had to travel to NY state last August, we were advised before landing that there were people at the gate handing out forms for us to fill out with our contact info, where we were staying locally, the purpose of our visit, and so forth, for contact tracing purposes.  Anyone who failed to register would be subject to a $1200 fine.  We were to quarantine for 14 days. Probably not hard to get around up to a point, but they sure were serious about pinpointing where a hot spot might originate.

Are we hijacking Joey's thread?  rolleyes.gif

--------------
"There are yahoos out there.  It’s why we can’t have nice things."  - Tom Mahood
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Joey
verrry senior member



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 2306 | TRs
Location: Redmond
Joey
  Top

verrry senior member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 6:15 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Anne Elk wrote:
Are we hijacking Joey's thread?

Not at all.  Thank you for contributing to the thread.

And I have wondered the same thing about the rule on home gatherings.  Maybe that is in there to try and convince skeptics that the pandemic is a real deal.

Big picture time.

Everyone in the country has been asked to do the right thing - wear a mask, socially distance, etc.  Some are really good about complying.  But it certainly seems like an astonishing number of people are not complying.  I have great concern that a deadly combination of stupid+selfish  is going to bring the health system to its knees in much of the country.  In other words, I do not see anything in the near term that will cause the stupid+selfish crowd to change their behavior and as a result the count of new cases will continue to zoom.  And in 2-3 weeks  this will be followed by the inevitable increase in hospitalizations.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 4653 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
  Top

Faster than light
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 6:24 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Anne Elk wrote:
One thing I don't get re Inslee's order is this: what's the point of prohibitions that are unenforceable? You can forbid public gatherings and force restaurants to close and penalize them,  but nobody's going to be knocking on your door checking how many peeps are at your house on T-day.  Just sayin'.

Most people will heed the prohibitions.  Making it an order instead of a suggestion means more people will take it seriously.  There doesn't have to be 100% compliance to keep the hospitals under control.

This is an every bit counts thing.  You wear a mask, you keep six feet away from people, you limit time in stores, you have a public order.  No one of them is full proof but all of them together and we're better off.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Cyclopath
Faster than light



Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 4653 | TRs
Location: Seattle
Cyclopath
  Top

Faster than light
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 6:29 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
For what it's worth, Google Maps also has covid info built in now, go to layers (map, satellite, covid, etc).

It's like Joey's map is a Feathered Friends and Google's is a Coleman from Fred Meyer.
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Joey
verrry senior member



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 2306 | TRs
Location: Redmond
Joey
  Top

verrry senior member
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 6:35 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
Cyclopath wrote:
Feathered Friends

ykm.gif
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message Send e-mail This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!



Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 9936 | TRs
Location: Don't move here
treeswarper
  Top

Alleged Sockpuppet!
PostSun Nov 15, 2020 7:24 pm 
This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
I hit the wrong button on the radio one day last week.   It was the local AM station and they were broadcasting a nationwide talk show of the kind that is common these days.  I couldn't believe what I was hearing.  There was a "guest" on the show explaining that this pandemic was not as bad as the experts were saying it was--flu was worse, and that experts were not to be trusted.  Masks were a hoax and before I shut the &^% off, the host was declaring that he was going to have a huge Thanksgiving gathering and he was daring the CA governor to arrest him. 

At this stage of the pandemic, I was shocked that such idiocy was still being broadcast. I guess they can still make money spewing "alternative facts" and that's all that matters.   

Too many people are being duped by this kind of trash.  NPR was interviewing a nurse who said that many of her patients did not believe Covid was real, until they became quite sick with it. 

We have the younger people who don't give a ---- whether they have it or not. 

It's gonna be a long long time before we see the end.  Hope we all make it.

--------------
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
Back to top
View user's profile Search for posts by this user Send private message This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies. Reply with quote
  Display:     All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Forum Index > Full Moon Saloon > New coronavirus cases doubling in 2 weeks in western Washington
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
   Use Disclaimer Powered by phpBB Privacy Policy