[Anne Elk]

[Eric Hansen]

fwiw and yrmv. Drought Monitor posts on Thursdays and did today. One notable shift on the "seasonal" outlook. i.e. prediction. They show western WA state as likely to move into drought (they previously had it as an exception to the West wide drought). If you are clicking on the monthly first be sure to unclick there before clicking on the seasonal (thru Sept. 30) outlook. Current Map. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx One month outlook. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOutlooks/Outlooks.aspx Seasonal outlook. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOutlooks/Outlooks.aspx

[Anne Elk]

Here's a really interesting article about the situation at Lake Mead, with all the stats: Hoover Dam, symbol of the modern West, faces a new test This was foreseen, even in the early days. From the article: "John Wesley Powell famously voiced concerns in 1893, some 24 years after his expedition down the river in the Grand Canyon, when he told the attendees at the International Irrigation Congress in Los Angeles: “I tell you, gentlemen, you are piling up a heritage of conflict and litigation over water rights, for there is not sufficient water to supply these lands.”

[Cyclopath]

https://vimeo.com/564356736

[Eric Hansen]

Thanks Anne, for the article. A good read. John Wesley Powell saw it all coming. The sculptor mentioned, Oskar J.W. Hansen, is my grandfather. I found something new on the Drought Monitor site the other day. If you click on Maps on the top of the page one of the choices is "Comparison Slider". That allows you to post two maps and run a vertical "slider" back and forth to highlight the comparison of the two. I opted to keep the current map and have the second map be at this time last June. It makes last year look like a picnic. A few splotches of red (D3) were present last year June. This year? Widespread red (D3) and huge areas of dark (D4)

[Eric Hansen]

One other data bank if you care to get into the weeds on what may be coming. Wildland Fire Predictive Services not only shows fire prone areas in the U.S. but links to a site that details continent wide conditions predictions. i.e. Canada and Mexico as well as the U.S. Mexico's exposure doesn't appear to be major and largely fades as the monsoon moves in. Canada is another story. Canadian June exposure is east from Lake Winnebago to the eastern Great Lakes. In July the exposure moves west to British Columbia and even Vancouver Island - and its mass grows to match the U.S. risk. August accelerates that move. That may translate into cross border smoke, and a broad inability to loan equipment and fire fighters (since needed at home) https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm Below U.S. monthly maps click on North American Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook First page that comes up is "North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook" Scroll down to the second page and continent wide monthly predictive maps are there

[Eric Hansen]

Wildland Fire Predictive Services posted new fire potential maps July 1. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm New: Northwest Washington state is in the red zone for July, comes out of it for August but rest of region predicted to remain in red then. Arizona, New Mexico and southern Utah come out of the red zone (probably reflecting the monsoon's arrival) yrmv

[Eric Hansen]

Some nuance for WA in Drought Monitor seasonal outlook posted 7/15 (outlook for 7/15 to 10/31) Monthly outlook still has western WA moving into drought. Seasonal shows Olympic Peninsula and south from there coming out of drought. Unclick the monthly button if clicking on the seasonal https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOutlooks/Outlooks.aspx Current conditions map continues to be a westwide worsening drought with even the Dakotas and Minnesota moving into the severe category https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx YRMV

[gb]

Looking at the GFS this morning, there appears no reasonable possibility of rain through August 4th in Washington - maybe a bit of drizzle hear and there. The good news is that BC would appear to get rain that will narrow the fire problems there to just the area from the Coquialla to the SE part of the province. From about 2-300 miles north of the border and along the coast rainfall looks to be "normal".

[Eric Hansen]

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx Drought Monitor posts on Thursday, and Washington state is highlighted in today's notes for topsoil dryness: "Meanwhile, Washington led the country in several drought-related agricultural categories, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. On July 18, Washington’s topsoil moisture was rated 98% very short to short—highest on record since the beginning of the 21st century. Prior to this year, the Washington state record of 89% very short to short had been set on September 10, 2017. Washington also led the country on July 18 in very poor to poor ratings for rangeland and pastures (96%), spring wheat (88%), and barley (63%). " Also, in the notes: Startling declines in reservoirs, Flaming Gorge Reservoir releasing water to boost Lake Powell, guard hydropower generating capacity "Moving to longer-term impacts, some of the West’s largest reservoirs and lakes continued to exhibit startling declines. The surface elevation of Lake Mead, on the Colorado River behind Hoover Dam, fell 135 feet in the 21-year period from July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2021, from 1,204 to 1,069 feet above sea level. By July 20, Lake Mead’s elevation stood at 1067.79 feet. Prior to the 21st century, Lake Mead’s surface elevation briefly fell below 1,100 feet only during two drought periods: 1955-57 and 1964-65. Since March 2014, the lake’s end-of-month surface elevation has been continuously below 1,100 feet—and currently stands at a record low since impoundment occurred more than 80 years ago. Farther upstream, water is being released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Wyoming and Utah to boost the level of Lake Powell for the purpose of guarding hydropower generating capability. Elsewhere in Utah, the surface elevation of the Great Salt Lake fell to 4,191.4 feet on July 20, tying the previous record low set in 1963. In California, 154 primary intrastate reservoirs gained just 1.7 million acre-feet of water during the 2021 melt season, barely 20% of the historical recharge average of 7.9 million acre-feet. At the end of June, the 154 reservoirs held just 62% of their typical volume for this time of year—and had lost 16.6 million acre-feet of water (49% of the original volume) over the last 2 years. Current California storage (17.5 million acre-feet) is less than 5.8 million acre-feet above what those reservoirs held on June 30, 1977, which was the year when statewide storage ultimately fell to a record-low end-of-month volume of 7.5 million acre-feet at the end of October. "

[Eric Hansen]

Some good news. Drought Monitor just posted their monthly outlook for August. They had been thinking that the Washington Cascades would move into drought. They now have the Washington Cascades, along with a stripe leading south from the Olympic Peninsula painted white or "normal" in their monthly outlook. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOutlooks/Outlooks.aspx

[Eric Hansen]

Today's Drought Monitor map posting continues the news that Western Washington state is in an abnormally dry or moderate drought status while Eastern Washington state continues to be in serious drought with a large chunk in D4, exceptional drought, the worst possible category. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu Next data release: They typically update their seasonal outlook (i.e. 3 months) on the 15th of the month. In other news a strong monsoon has eased some conditions in Arizona/New Mexico. That status shows up in the outlooks. Under the "Maps" button are links to map archives. Also, well worth a peek is a very neat feature they call a "Comparison Slider" which is under the "Maps" button. That allows you to juxtapose 2 different maps side by side, move the divider horizontally and easily see the change in conditions. August 1 Wildland Fire Outlook (U.S.) is here. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf Edit: interesting to see the large patch of green (i.e. less fire possibility) covering Arizona in the August fire outlook map, presumably a result of the monsoon.

[Eric Hansen]

Bumping up to note that Drought Monitor posted its seasonal (3 months+) outlook today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php Key part of text: "Drought is expected to persist for nearly all of the western and north-central U.S. through the end of November, but an increasingly wet climatology later in the fall season favors improvement for the coastal Pacific Northwest. " Their weekly map continues the pattern we have seen for Washington state https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

[jinx'sboy]

If you want to look out beyond 3 months, this kind of interesting; rolling three month periods - for both precip and temperature - for the next 12 months. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php It is cool to see the longer time frame change slowly with each new monthly update - always the THIRD Thursday of the month.

[Eric Hansen]

jinx's boy, Yeah, I've seen those ultra long forecasts and find them a bit mind boggling. Always wondering what their accuracy record is. On a separate but related theme, E-mail from High Country News arrived with the title line "The Colorado River is terminally ill" Headscratcher for a few minutes, then I thought yes, maybe that is the term for it. https://www.hcn.org/issues/53.9/infographic-drought-the-incredible-shrinking-colorado-river?utm_source=wcn1&utm_medium=email