[gb]

Just looked at the GFS from Pivotal Weather (which has nice graphics). The amount of rain in the North Cascades especially near and quite a bit east of the crest is very substantial - I didn't add it up, but I would expect 1-3" of rain. Basically a seasonally quite cool/cold low tracks across Washington just north of the Oregon border Friday-Saturday. Unfortunately, after that it warms very rapidly and remains much above normal in the mountains through mid-August. Freezing level look higher than they were in the most recent heat wave - like 15,000-16,500'.

[kiliki]

Wow, I just heard a thunderstorm warning as part of the radio emergency alert system--I'm not sure I've ever heard that system used for anything but practice. 50 mph winds and 2" hail predicted for the King Co Cascades??!!

[BeardoMcGrath]

[treeswarper]

One lightning fire started east of Bonaparte Lake. I think they got it knocked down. Two firebosses and a helicopter plus ground crews got on it. The post about it being contained was a bit cryptic and comments were turned off so not sure for sure. No storm here in the big O. Yet. A ski buddy once said to think of the Okanogan area as a big O. Storms generally go around it.

[Cyclopath]

[treeswarper]

The cryptic message was just that and my assumption was wrong. The fire is called The Walker Lake Fire and is burning east of Bonaparte Lake. Sounds like they have a lot of folks and equipment on it. There is a thunderstorm going on in the Methow. Some areas are getting rain, some are just getting lightning.

[zephyr]

[treeswarper]

Not good here. The Big O theory is not true tonight. A very strong wind blew into Omak. Dust was flying and various things were blowing. I needed to put a woven basket on the back of my bike to ride away with a Pseudo Toto inside. Ah, but now I hear heavy rain on the roof. We have wind, thunder, lightning and now a bit of rain. A fire has started south of Okanogan near highway 20 and another over in the Methow at Davis Lake. It's going to be a busy night for fire folks.

[Sky Hiker]

Thunderstorm came thru Sky last evening. Dropped some rain at Sky but down by Index it was dumping.

[gb]

The thunderstorms yesterday were expected to be over the Cascades but isolated at best. But yesterday in the Olympics we had very dark skies, heard thunder a few times and got a few drops of rain. That particular storm was likely over Puget Sound.

[gb]

The big rain is for the most part a bust. After showing for several days the low pressure passing through Washington near the Columbia border, the system is now expected to be about as far north as Mt. Robson; a huge miss. There still may be decent rains, but just in the North Cascades and not far east of the crest. The low eventually drops east in the newest forecast along the Canadian Rockies and on Sunday is now shown north of Spokane. There is some chance Sunday could bring some rain to the North Cascades east of the crest? Sunday does look wet in southern and southeastern BC - so maybe some help there. But the big rains in the Mazama area faded with the change in the track of the low. Bummer! We can't win for losing this summer. This is by far the hottest summer I've seen in the Cascades in my active lifetime.

[olderthanIusedtobe]

I'm a little north of Seattle, got a bit of thunder and a few drops of rain yesterday afternoon. I was all ready for a deluge and it didn't materialize.

[altasnob]

When I check the European model (what Cliff Mass says is the best forecast model) using windy.com, and then click total accumulation for the next 10 days, it still shows the wettest place in the entire Western US to be NE Olympics stretching East to the Cascade Crest (typical convergence zone precip area North of Seattle). Cliff also points out that it is extremely rare to get precip from the Pacific in WA in late July and early August until the third or fourth week of August. So I don't know if I would call it a bust just yet, but yes, not a whole lot making it East of the crest to the fires in Mazama.

[altasnob]

NOAA's monthly report for July 2021 is available. Sea-Tac was 1.7 F above normal high for the month, .1 F above normal low. There were 2 days above 90 F, the average is 1.8 days. .6 mm below average precip (there was only a trace and normal is .6 mm).

[neek]

ECMWF shows 60mm over the next 10 days near Index, but almost none near Leavenworth. But the picture changes every day. Hard to make plans, especially with smoke a factor as well. I'll take rain over heavy smoke, smoke over being caught in an electrical storm. Also it's going to be cold, relatively speaking.