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Anne Elk
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PostMon Aug 23, 2021 1:52 pm 
I keep going back to my favorite at-a-glance reference, the Palmer Drought Index, which I've cited in discussion threads before. Despite its faults, I think it gives a very useful picture of ground conditions - soil moisture, recharge, etc. I'm not sure how the data was derived for the historical models, given that Palmer came up with his system in 1965. I haven't gone back through the historical index to check when they first began to occur regularly, but you have to imagine that when the west coast of the Olympic Peninsula shows moderate to severe drought for multiple months in a row and not just in summer, we're in new climate territory.

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Malachai Constant
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PostMon Aug 23, 2021 2:35 pm 
Anne Elk of course you hit the nail on the head we concentrate far to much on the spark and to little on the underlying conditions. Be it careless campers, power lines, arson, agricultural machinery, grinding rails, sunlight on broken bottles, lightning, tossed cigarettes, catalytic converters, or careless loggers, sparks will occur it is what happens when the occur that makes all the difference. Record heat, drought, duff condition, disease, and fuel load determine what happens. After the fact punishments may be satisfying but will not cure the damage nor will internet pontification on hiking websites no matter how heated the arguments.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn

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PostMon Aug 23, 2021 8:08 pm 
Schroder wrote:
I agree with most of what you say here but also Anne Elk has hit the root cause - lack of rain. We're seeing climate effects that are unprecedented & more and larger fires in the West are going to continue until there's nothing left to burn. I think it's unrealistic to say that we can throw enough money into forest management that will have an effect on the larger issue.
Sorry, Schroder.... I assume that people understand that our climate and weather patterns are evolving to what appears to be a much warmer, drier trend (at least during spring and summer.) To a significant degree the drought conditions all over the western US have effected the situation with wildfie. Not sure I necessarily agree with that last sentence though: I think we can manage it effectively if the prescriptions I described above were followed, primarily that of controlled burning. It's not about timber harvesting at all - it's about reducing the fuel loads that otherwise would have been eliminated in the pre-Columbian era (actually clear up into the early 20th century) by either human-caused wildfires or naturally occurring wildfires. If the USFS were to ramp up the pre-commercial and commercial thinning operations, they might generate a bit of revenue, and although most likely not enough to cover costs of operations system-wide, it would at the minimum begin to address the issue. But I think that would have to be done in combination with controlled burns on those projects unless the slash is scarified and hand-piled.

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treeswarper
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PostTue Aug 24, 2021 7:32 am 
Cyclopath wrote:
Ski wrote:
Exactly WHAT would you propose as a management strategy to address the current issue of recurrent catastrophic wildfires occurring at at ever-increasing scale annually? I'm waiting.
It's complex and I'll be happy to talk about that, but the important point is that you're telling us we need more logging out hiking will forever be a fiery hell, and I'm saying no, cutting more trees down while lumber prices are high isn't the what we want to do about this. I don't even need a competing plan to call BS. The evidence-based answer is that controlled burning is the best lever available for us to pull. There are a lot of other strategies that can be used together, even thinning in some cases where appropriate. There are a lot of things contributing to what's going on, not just "too much old growth." Also, because of exceptionally dry soil and vegetation, extreme heat, and a prolonged fire season, we're going to see more fires, that's just a fact of life, we all know we're not going to cut all the trees down so that's not a solution. Those trees are a public resource that belong to everybody. People want to use fires to convince the public to turn more of this resource over to one sector. That's human nature.
When was Too Much Old Growth mentioned as a problem? For the Millionth time, most of the old growth you imagine is Too Damn Big to run the logs through modern mills. And yes, there are a very few mills that it can fit in, but then the logger has to have the large machinery to get the heavy logs out, and most log outfits have gotten rid of that equipment. Old growth shouldn't even be considered as part of this discussion, but somebody who doesn't seem to know about modern times always brings it up. Please tell me about the valuable doghair "timber" in the eastside forests, and how much value it has to the evil timber industry? I'd like to know. Maybe somebody can start hauling that stuff to your fantasy market. In a few areas, it can be hauled to a biofuel plant, but that depends on distance, trucking, etc. costs which usually don't work out for long distances. You have me stumped. Where is the market for precommercial thinning slash? That slash is lopped up and scattered, piled and burned, or left to get smashed down by the snow. It doesn't even make good Christmas trees. As for commercial thinning? Yes, those logs go to the mills but the value depends on the treatment prescription and for forest health, the usual way is to thin from below, leaving the dominant healthy trees and taking the smaller trees. There are many ways to choose what trees to take. The FS has been commercially thinning for decades. Are you now one of the No Logging Ever folks? Good luck on that. And, log prices haven't kept up with lumber prices. From what I gather reading posts by loggers, log prices are decent at this time, but are not sky high like lumber has been. Also, lumber prices are now dropping. There is a strong market for cedar, but that is not unusual. Lumber prices were driven up by the Covid outbreak. Mills shut down, lumber wasn't made, became scarcer and prices were raised. I really don't think you have a good idea on what operations occur, costs, and markets in the forestry realm. It isn't simple. It varies, just like the forest ecosystems do. On the Cub Creek Fire facebook page is a photo of a grader blading a road. That must be the new way to get road maintenance done. NPR reported that two billion dollars has been spent so far on fire suppression this year. That 737 air tanker that was flying around here ain't cheap.

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PostTue Aug 24, 2021 8:01 am 
Another thread ruined by the usual trolls, sigh. The problem with trolls is not what they write but that they make every thread the same. Which is the idea I guess. shakehead.gif I was just reading an article by Zeke Lunder about the fire ecology in northern California. He was describing some of the conditions that make forest fires spread more rapidly in parts of California than they are likely to do here. In the higher terrain of northern California, the forests are dominated by red and white fir. Firs produce small needles that make a dense duff. The density of the duff is very important for fire spread. Burning can only occur on an exposed surface, and denser duff has less surface area. Most years, the higher forests in California get buried under a snowpack that can exceed 30' of depth. The snow really compacts the duff layer. Down at lower elevations, the forests are dominated by Jeffery and Ponderosa pines. These pines make long needles that not only form a less dense duff, they tend to hang up on snags and brush. The result is a ground layer that promotes much faster fire spread. In California, a lot of the area dominated by these pines does not get a significant snowpack every year. This stands in contrast to here in Washington. Most of our Ponderosa pine forests are found in areas that typically get a snowpack. Another major difference is chaparral and manzanita. The open understory in California is dominated primarily by species of manzanita. If fire frequency is high, the pines will not regenerate and the brush will dominate. This type of ecosystem is known as chaparral. We have very little here in Washington, I have really only seen extensive chaparral in the lower Scotty Creek drainage. Manzanita, in particular, forms volatile oils that make fires hotter. After the fire, manzanita crown sprouts prolifically. While we do have fire-promoting shrubs and trees, we don't really have many areas that spread fire as quickly as manzanita chaparral understory. Because of these factors, the forest fire ecology in northern California at low elevations has no analogue here in Washington. The fires that have spread rapidly here were mostly burning in shrub-steppe, not forest. Here is a link to the really awesome website where I read about some of his: https://the-lookout.org/

Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir

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Anne Elk
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PostTue Aug 24, 2021 10:25 am 
Sculpin, thanks for the link to Zeke Lunder's "The Lookout". He also recommends another site in one of his tweets from a couple days ago: If you are interested in learning more about how wildfires work, I highly recommend following @pyrogeog. Crystal Kolden has been working in wildfire for a long time and posts a lot of very solid information here. https://twitter.com/pyrogeog/status/1429272781355507714

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altasnob
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PostTue Aug 24, 2021 10:44 am 
Ski wrote:
STOP building goddam houses next to forest lands. This notion that every American is entitled to have his own little "cabin in the woods" is a root cause of current conditions. (see Icicle Creek - near Leavenworth.) There's a good reason why, up until about the middle of the 20th century, land was cleared before building houses on it: over the course of tens of thousands of years, humans finally figured out that forests are bad, and they have no place next to homes.
One-third of all homes in the US are in the wildland-urban interface, (WUI), even though that area only encompasses 10 percent of the nation’s land area. I read that 70% of all new homes occurs in the WUI. So if anything, we are building more homes in the forests, and next to the forests, than any other point in history. But how do you stop this? The government can zone land rural but they can't prevent a landowner from building a house without a really, really, good reason (like slope too steep, too close to river bank or ocean, ect.). Maybe the difficulty in finding home owners insurance in the WUI will slow construction there. But I doubt it, considering we have a massive housing shortage and people desire to live in these locations.

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treeswarper
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PostTue Aug 24, 2021 3:55 pm 
While talking with a friend this morning, who also went away on fire crews, the Naches area fire came up as a topic. I did remember that the Naches district has done quite a bit of fuels reduction work on the Tieton side of the Russell Ridge area--burning and selective logging. We may get a chance to see how that goes. And Sculpin, the forests of Western OR and WA often and this depends on elevations and locations, have deep layers of duff/organics. When a fire gets going in those places, digging line is difficult and mopping up is hell as the smoldering is quite deep, not to mention going into the roots. Luckily, water is usually available so the ground can be drowned in water if a pump and hose are feasible. Meanwhile, in the eastern part of the Cascades, we have deep needles in places where no fires have occurred for a long time. These burn pretty fast but will cause cat faces (fire scars) on the uphill side of trees where the needles have piled up deep against the tree and burn hot. Needles are easy to burn off with a drip torch in the spring, but that doesn't happen enough and it needs to be repeated every few years or the needles pile up again. Forests are not one size fits all. Nor did you say that but I think other folks can't or won't understand that concept. And some realistic humor. Prior to burning the needles off a forest floor in the high country of AZ, the forest WAS raked! The fire crews were sent out to rake those concentrations of needles away from the trees to prevent the trees from scorching. The same area had a Chariot Of Fire--an ATV with trailer attached. The trailer had a torch on it. Unfortunately, the Chariot of Fire had a problem and burned up. There were no injuries incurred.

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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 7:41 am 
altasnob wrote:
we are building more homes in the forests, and next to the forests, than any other point in history.
It's time for the building codes to catch up. rolleyes.gif I saw some interesting stuff when some friends of mine who own a house outside Bonney Doon, California, had wildfire come through. (Can't remember if I posted this before, sorry if I did.) Rob spent his career building houses. So they had a nice house he built himself, plus a variety of outbuildings. In retirement he built African musical instruments, marimbas and mbiras, so he had a big shop and also a music studio. One of the other outbuildings was being rented to a young couple. The land parcel was on the edge of redwood forest, with mostly redwoods to the east and more open pine forest to the west. The understory was mostly open but there were a few shrubs. When the fire came through, it killed not a single tree, nor did it even burn much of the shrubs except for some leaf kill. But all the structures burned to ash except the main house, and the reason that did not burn was because there was a Calfire engine there spraying water on it as the fire went through. One thing I learned goes under the "politics" of firefighting. The Calfire engine probably could have saved all the structures. They were not told that there were two residences, which is why the young couple lost their house. The problem is that it is really bad optics when a fire engine saved your house and workshop and everything else, but your neighbor's house burned. So they were not allowed to save the outbuildings even if they could. Those structures should not have burned in this fire. This was not crown fire, nor even hot ground fire. The problem is that building codes require features that work against wildfire resistance. By far the most important are crawlspace vents. When a fire approaches a structure, it brings a wave of warmed air. Warm air is generally at a higher pressure than cool air, so a pressure gradient sets up across the structure. The shortest path for the pressure to equalize is through the crawlspace vents. So as the fire reaches the structure, this pressure difference causes jets of flame into the crawlspace. These crawlspace vent jets were likely the hottest spots on their estate during the fire. In places with dry summers, houses don't even need crawlspace vents. But in areas where they are needed, there are now mechanisms you can buy that close the vents when a fire approaches. Of course, closing or eliminating crawlspace vents is just one thing we could do, there are many others. Putting everyone in tract homes is probably not going to happen.

Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 3:35 pm 
Whilst out on a bike ride today, saw these beauties. These are great handpiles up near the Loup Loup ski area. They will be ready to burn late this Fall. The cardboard looking stuff keeps a core area dry. You stick your drip torch or lighting device in the pile under that and it'll take off, generate a lot of heat, and the uncovered part of the pile will burn. This area was logged a bit during the winter and up until the fire season shut down occurred. This is next to the Loup Loup campground where hazard trees were taken out. It'll look really nice once logs and slash are gone, along with cows that were trespassing.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 4:22 pm 
^ You mean you don't think cows add something to the natural landscape? dizzy.gif As an aside: In a conversation with somebody on another site, it was suggested that "the Europeans don't have this problem." When Pinchot went over to Germany to look at their forests and attend the first "school" of forestry, one of the things he noticed was that the litter on the floor was absent - the local villagers picked it all up for firewood. That practice had been in place for generations and generations - the landowners allowed the villagers to scavenge the wood. Maybe we could get people to go back to wood heat and provide free slash for firewood? dizzy.gif

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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 4:41 pm 
Ski wrote:
"the Europeans don't have this problem."
But Europe does have this problem (see active fires in Greece). And Europe has completely altered their natural landscape and eradicated native species, such as bears. And Europe is a major importer of wood.

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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 4:52 pm 
^ that was in the context of Pinchot's visits to the forests of Bavaria, which occurred during the late 19th century. Certainly the situation has changed there significantly during the last century and a half. But the Black Forest is not Greece, or Spain, or Portugal.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 6:52 pm 
Some research done a few years ago on German forests shows there is a problem. It shows up in the 4th? or so rotation of the forest. It's basically that the soil runs out of nutrients as there isn't enough deteriorating wood to add organics and all the goodies to the soil. Productivity is down with each rotation. In fact, after that came to light, things changed a bit here. Contracts specified that slash under a certain diameter was to be left in the unit, along with a certain number of larger logs. If they were whole tree skidding (limbing done on the landing) slash had to be sent back out into the unit. On the west side, this small stuff deteriorates quickly. On the east side, not so much but requiring lopping and scattering lessens the fire danger a bit. That's taking a saw out and cutting up the limbs so they aren't sticking up very high and breaking up the heavy concentrations of limbs (fuels) so the heat won't be as intense should a fire occur. But, if you are really serious about fuels reduction, the way to get it done and slicked clean is to put a campground in the area. No concessionaires selling firewood. Campers allowed to gather it for their fires.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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PostWed Aug 25, 2021 6:57 pm 
They were hanging out around the outhouse. A few miles farther up the road, there were some Black Angus of a most impressive size. I talked nice to them and convinced the Demon Dog to keep a low profile. For some reason, range cows often seem a bit on the mean side.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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