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gb
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 6:16 am 
This is quite likely to bring an end to the fire season around here and in Oregon at least:

NWS Discussion: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=sew

jaysway, neek
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treeswarper
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 3:22 pm 
It is raining here.  Hope it keeps on for quite a while.

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Randito
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 5:19 pm 
Drizzling on East Tiger today.


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dixon
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 6:14 pm 
Cliff Mass has a blog post about how summer has officially ended which is also obvious looking at the extended and NOAA climate prediction models. Noone can complain this year after probably the longest summer in history. Hopefully this winter is good for our glaciers. The Rainier Interglacier was in a sad state 4-6 weeks ahead of normal this year, completely unclimbable.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-first-major-rain-event-of-season.html

RichP
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treeswarper
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 6:22 pm 
It cooled off.  High today was 69!

We can't get too active though.  The ERs around here are stuffed to the gills.  Sigh.

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Malachai Constant
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 6:35 pm 
The comping winter will be good for the glaciers but it will not make a difference. Last winter was GREAT for glaciers near record ski season Crystal open into May. Big snow pack in the mountains but it all melted by early summer. Emmons unclimbable after  July 4th, Shasta brown, glissade on Adams a choss fest, Baker with giant sun cups in August, and Picket traverse only possible in June when avy danger extreme. It will take at least ten years of big snow winters AND cool summers to even get back to last year. Not to be a pessimist but we are f€£]ed.

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jaysway, dixon
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Cyclopath
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 7:24 pm 
The glaciers are disappearing.  All of them.   frown.gif

dixon
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PostFri Sep 10, 2021 8:12 pm 
Malachai Constant wrote:
It will take at least ten years of big snow winters AND cool summers to even get back to last year. (

Cyclopath wrote:
The glaciers are disappearing.  All of them.   frown.gif

I agree frown.gif I was truly shocked at the melt that occurred this season. Ive spent most of the summer scrambling around Rainier and usually climb up to Whitman Crest in August but this year I found the Fryingpan to be almost all bare ice. From Goat Island looking south at the glacier there were not streams but quite literally giant rivers flowing off the glacier into Frying pan creek. I've also never had issues crossing the White River in Glacier Basin but had to scout up-down the river for 45 mins trying to find a place to cross.

I've been reading the Glacier research on the MRNP website and seems that 2015 was the last study which focuses on glacial retreat, but overall "mass loss" is not included and is apparently difficult to measure. I'd be interested to know how the overall mass is being affected. I'm just a layman but im certain I can see the retreat of these glaciers in just a decade of hiking around the park.

Came across this article in the Spokesman discussing this very topic. Martin Volken from Pro Ski in N. Bend suggests the climbing season could become shorter in future years ... https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/sep/09/in-north-cascades-researchers-climbers-watch-washi/

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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 11:50 am 
Malachai Constant wrote:
The comping winter will be good for the glaciers but it will not make a difference. Last winter was GREAT for glaciers near record ski season Crystal open into May. Big snow pack in the mountains but it all melted by early summer. Emmons unclimbable after  July 4th, Shasta brown, glissade on Adams a choss fest, Baker with giant sun cups in August, and Picket traverse only possible in June when avy danger extreme. It will take at least ten years of big snow winters AND cool summers to even get back to last year. Not to be a pessimist but we are f€£]ed.

Seems like it was really bad at higher elevations like on the volcanoes, but maybe not so bad a middle elevations? I know someone who skied near at Snoqualmie Pass a week ago. I keep seeing significant snow patches at mid elevations (say 5000ft) that make me think if every year was like this, a glacier would form. The glaciers on the volcanoes look in far worse shape than ones I've seen at lower elevations recently.

(I'm also not sure about the Emmons being unclimbable after July 4th... the mount rainier climbing blog on 8/8/ said people were still regularly summitting via that route).

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Malachai Constant
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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 12:21 pm 
There are always snow patches into august at midelevations well into August but they always melt by November. They are usually on Northern exposures in deep gullies. If they lasted through to winter they would have long ago developed a glacier. The lowest one are permanent snow fields like Big 4 which is fed by avalanches in winter and spring. Snow persists well into summer under heavy tree cover in valleys but always eventually melts. The glaciers at high elevations are melting as they are exposed all year. When the winter snow melts they melt faster because the glacial ice absorbs more radiation.

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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 12:52 pm 
philfort wrote:
(I'm also not sure about the Emmons being unclimbable after July 4th... the mount rainier climbing blog on 8/8/ said people were still regularly summitting via that route).

I think "unclimbable" is clearly an overstatement.   "Sub-optimal and more dangerous" seems like a better description.   e.g.  Lee Adams was killed on the the Emmons in late July when a slip on firm snow by his rope mates and ice axe self arrest attempts proved unsuccessful before the slid into an open crevasse.

I tend to think the most favorable time for the Emmons and the DC routes is mid-May through June -- when crevasses are still filled / well covered and the snow surface is still soft enough that self-arrest is relatively more effective, but avalanche and weather hazards aren't too bad.

July is the most favorable weather wise and poor weather has killed many more people within Mt Rainier National Park than "climbing accidents" per se.

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Malachai Constant
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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 1:10 pm 
Maybe unclimbable is too strong a term I based the comment on personal experience when we went to Glacier Basin and spoke with several groups who had turned back on the July 4th weekend after having members fall into crevasse. Experienced ice climbers can climb overhanging waterfalls so I suppose nothing is truly unclimbable.

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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 1:58 pm 
Rain? Nope. Olympia has become the Sahara of Puget Sound.

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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 4:16 pm 
Forecast Discussion for Central Cascades Crest:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...After the next front moves
through the area Tuesday night there will be a weak transitory upper
ridge moving across the area Wed and Thu. At the surface weak high
pressure builds into the area through Thursday morning but there
isn`t really much offshore flow and the forecast does not show temps
warming up into Thursday. A stronger cold front will arrive late in
the week and the first snow of the season will fall across the high
elevations of the mountains--a hiker in the mountains next weekend
will see pass temps only in the 40s and mountain climbers will have
to be ready for wintery conditions on the peaks. 19

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Malachai Constant
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Cyclopath
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PostSat Sep 11, 2021 8:45 pm 
Bit of rain today in Port Townsend.

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