[Eric Hansen]

FWIW, YRMV. Posted for possible trip planning implications. Oregon Cascades are currently showing up as a concern. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm Edit: Dug further into the report and found this map showing percentage of normal precipitation for February. Worth a peek. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/precip30day.png

[puzzlr]

Here's a zoom of the last 120 days, which includes most of our wet season. There's definitely a wet side and a dry side. Lots of other maps are available at the link below the photo.

From ACIS Climate Maps

[jinx'sboy]

[CC]

[Eric Hansen]

CC, I agree that a one month precipitation map can be misleading if the perspective is not kept in mind. I saw it as another piece of the puzzle, not the final word.

[gb]

The answer east of the crest, particularly south of Snoqualmie Pass is pretty easy actually. Near the crest snowfall has been mediocre, though approaching normal with precip and snow this month. However, east of the crest precipitation has been poor especially farther east and even moreso east of Chinook and White Passes. However soil moisture in the Columbia Basin is likely ok or even better than average becasue of the one really big storm just after Xmas. Because that has melted slowly, it acts like drip irrigation as long as the snow cover remains. If there is no snow cover in that area, as in many years, the soil is then subjected to evaporation particularly after the inversion cloud in Eastern Washington dissipates around mid-February. However, that one big storm has also essentially been a one-off nearer the crest east side and so total snow depth is very poor in the subalpine and mid to upper river drainages on the east side; again particularly farther east and especially east of Chinook and White Passes. This has shown up in many "observations" at NWAC in those areas. HS was reported last week at 110cm @ 6200' in the Teanaway on an east aspect, but bare of snow or nearly so on south and east aspects. This has also been found in the Manatash area with snow depths as little as 10-30 cm to 5000' in those areas even as long ago as about one month. Little snow has fallen in those areas since those observations, many of which showed bare sun-facing slopes. Those are the areas that in Washington are at greatest risk of an early fire season. But since we can get smoke from fires over a broader area, of great concern is much of the intermountain West and particularly Nevada and New Mexico. Only an early monsoon could save those areas at this point.

[kbatku]

I've been thinking that the USFS response to fires is outdated. The "let her burn" theory of fire management dates back to the 1980s when forests were cooler and wetter. Now any spark and they go up like gasoline yet the Forrest Service stands by and "monitors" small fires until they inevitably explode. Perhaps we need to bring back some kind of rapid response force kinda like the old-time smoke jumpers

[Pyrites]

Pigtail Peak Snotel, out back of the Whitepass ski hill. https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/nwcc/view?intervalType=+View+Current+&report=WYGRAPH×eries=Daily&format=plot&sitenum=692&interval=WATERYEAR

[Randito]

[gb]

[gb]

It is already wildfire season in Texas, OK, and NM. Those problems should spread into the remainder of the four corners and Nevada/California barring a meteorological miracle. As an example the ski areas at Sandia, NM, and Mt. Lemmon in AZ have been closed for some time with no snow. https://wildfiretoday.com/

[Eric Hansen]

Bump. Wildland Fire Predictive Services posts on the first of the month and their new map shows potential outlook (for elevated chances of wildfire) thru July. In the PNW Oregon Cascades continues as a concern (shown in red), and parts of WA as well (beginning in July). Maps here. https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

[gb]

Howard Sheckter April 2nd:

[HitTheTrail]

[Eric Hansen]

Howard Sheckter is definitely the voice of authority on Eastside Sierra weather, and I'd say that is a pretty stiff warning for locals there. Funny thing is Southern Sierras aren't showing up in the red zone (yet) on the Wildland Fire maps I've been posting. Fifteen years ago I was in Bishop, setting up for a Mt. Sill project. Sill rumored to have the best view in the Sierras. Sheckter was a lifeline of timely forecasts. It was late September/early October and every other day a riff of snow would come through. 6", maybe more in the high country. Sill was 14k, and I needed to cross Bishop Pass (12k) to circle around to the peak's west side for a non-technical route. I bagged it and went to Death Valley. The Sierras snow was unusually early but being caught on the wrong side of a 12k pass, or on funky Sierra talus with even a dusting of snow, was not for me.