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kbatku Questionable hiker
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Posts: 3330 | TRs | Pics Location: Yaquima |
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kbatku
Questionable hiker
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Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:27 pm
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/14/typhoon-merbak-alaska-california-storm/
Some computer models indicate a broad 2 to 4 inches of rain falling across Northern California early next week. While it’s too early to pin down exactly who will see rain and how much, that could be welcome news for those dealing with wildfires. The Mosquito Fire, in the mountains about an hour’s drive northeast of Sacramento, has burned 58,544 acres and is only 20 percent contained.
They say NpoCal but hopefully some will drift this way
Cyclopath, rossb
Cyclopath, rossb
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philfort Member
Joined: 02 Sep 2003 Posts: 437 | TRs | Pics Location: seattle |
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philfort
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Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:40 pm
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A weather system heads
toward California through Sunday. Western Washington will see a
chance for some precip in the southerly flow aloft, but it doesn`t
look particularly organized or interesting. As we get into
Tuesday and Wednesday or next week, sunnier skies and warmer
temps are a pretty good bet. The high temp forecast is for lower
to mid 70s for the lowlands by the middle of next week. 19
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kbatku Questionable hiker
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Posts: 3330 | TRs | Pics Location: Yaquima |
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kbatku
Questionable hiker
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Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:59 pm
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Boo hiss
California is stealing our water!
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Pyrites Member
Joined: 16 Sep 2014 Posts: 1879 | TRs | Pics Location: South Sound |
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Pyrites
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Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:05 pm
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They need it.
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
breadcrumb, kbatku
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Heck No.
Stay Excited and Get Outside!
breadcrumb, kbatku
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Sculpin Member
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:47 am
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Here is the write-up from the Bay Area NWS, crack for us weather geeks!
"Potential is there for an anomalous September rain event setting up for late in the weekend and early next week (current focus Sun-Mon) with a low pressure system arriving from Alaska. It`s a very early season mid-latitude dynamic weather system that we`re watching. September is climatologically the third driest month of the year, thus forecast rain amounts on the order of a few tenths of an inch to 1 inch (locally 1-2 inches hills/mtns) compared to 30 year Sep normals may easily reach ~ 800% of normal in a lot of areas to more locally near 1,000%+ Sep normals in the North Bay. What is highly unusual about this particular pattern is the lack of connection to the eastern Tropical Pacific since if we`re going to get rain/showers in September typically there`s some moisture connection or origin to the eastern Tropical Pacific since it`s only late astronomical summer and it`s too early for the larger scale southern shift in westerlies. But, this system is breaking through. It may have a hint of western Pacific moisture to it, but when it arrives here it`s largely a mid-latitude dynamic weather system with no tap to the eastern Tropical Pacific.
Briefly summarizing: NW arriving systems typically are a bit moisture starved. GFS/ECMWF trends for Sat night/Sunday arrival have strengthened and closed the 500 mb height low, but have also shown the low will be initially displaced farther west to start, some cross-isobaric wind flow with continental influence i.e. drying or downsloping likely, thus easing at least initial concern for localized flooding, plus it`s 1st season rain and the terrain can handle some rain without significant run-off. During early-mid next week focus will still be if/how rain band(s) interact with the coastal terrain, i.e. North Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, possibly East Bay hills/mtns and Big Sur Coast."
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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Stefan Member
Joined: 17 Dec 2001 Posts: 5084 | TRs | Pics
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Stefan
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:49 am
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I don't see anything significant hitting California on the UW WRF-GFS forecast model. I see some rain. I don't see anything significant.
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thunderhead Member
Joined: 14 Oct 2015 Posts: 1511 | TRs | Pics
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The UW 12km GFS initialized run shows 1-2 inches of rain across northern California, in good agreement with all other models.
You have to look beyond 84 hours though, as the storm is just arriving at hr 84.
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Stefan-K Member
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 Posts: 522 | TRs | Pics Location: seattle |
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Stefan-K
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:32 pm
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Sculpin Member
Joined: 23 Apr 2015 Posts: 1376 | TRs | Pics
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Sculpin
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Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:10 am
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Not much uncertainty left at this point...
NWS forecast discussion for the North Bay, fresh this morning:
"A change in the weather pattern is underway as a deep, closed low is
on track to move south from the Gulf of Alaska and park itself
off the NorCal coast. This anomalous low will bring cool
temperatures with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s to the region
starting Saturday and lasting through midweek. Gusty winds are
also likely ahead of this incoming low on Saturday. But more
excitingly, there continues to be high confidence that this system
will bring rain to much of the Bay Area as this system will
provide a continuous stream of moisture-rich air (with PWATs over
an inch) through midweek. This beneficial rain is still expected
to arrive to the North Bay as early as Saturday evening and will
continue trekking south to the rest of the Bay Area and Central
Coast by Sunday night into Monday morning.
Expected rainfall totals have not changed much, with the majority of
rain expected over the North Bay which is expected to 1 to 3 inches
of rain total beginning Saturday evening through Tuesday evening."
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
kbatku
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
kbatku
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