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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Wed Nov 23, 2022 8:01 am
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NWS Discussion this morning:
Quote: | However, moisture from the low will stick around into Monday and
temperatures/snow levels will continue to drop. Monday-Tuesday
will be the days to watch. While the chance of lowland snow will
be increasing, the probability of it happening (as well as amounts
if it does) varies greatly from location to location. Right now,
the most probable locations would be the north side of the Olympic
Peninsula and Western Whatcom county due to some possible Fraser
River outflow starting. Additionally, models are suggesting
another frontal system moving through Tuesday, and some ensemble
members of both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting the potential
for a widespread lowland snow event. The confidence is not too
high with this yet as the timing of the cold air and the frontal
passage is going to have to line up. But certainly something that
will have to be monitored.
Butwin |
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:03 am
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11/24 Discussion extended:
Quote: | Temperatures will also fall rather
quickly Sunday night post-front, with lows Sunday night ranging
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. There is some uncertainty as to how
much precipitation lingers Sunday night into Monday morning, but
the convective nature of showers may lower snow levels for a
rain/snow mix in the lowlands, especially near any convergence
zone area near Snohomish County. This will be a period to monitor.
Much cooler temperatures are likely for the majority of next week
with ensemble guidance highlighting a longer duration period of
troughing and below normal temperatures. The next weather system
looks to potentially impact the area during the Tuesday night-Thursday
time period. Uncertainty exists as to how much cold air is in
place, as well as exact trajectory of the upper level trough
during this period, with respect to precipitation type for the
lowlands, at least initially. The upper trough does look to bring
another re-enforcing round of colder air to the PacNW, with
ensemble guidance suggesting temp anomalies in the range of 10-20
degrees below normal late next week. The overall theme for much of
next week will be much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain
snowfall at times, and periods of potential lowland wintry
precipitation. JD |
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Chief Joseph Member
Joined: 10 Nov 2007 Posts: 7677 | TRs | Pics Location: Verlot-Priest Lake |
Here in Verlot, yes for sure.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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Cyclopath Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012 Posts: 7697 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:59 pm
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We named a kitten Snowy for his white boots. He was born at the very end of January and hasn't learned about the snow yet. I can't wait to send him to play in it.
It used to snow here every five years or so, lately it happens at least once every winter. I'll love it if I can ski from home again.
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gb Member
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 6303 | TRs | Pics
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gb
Member
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Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:00 am
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This is an interesting analysis and description of tools from today's Forecast Discussion. I've not used this tool as it is new from the Climate Prediction Center:
Quote: | Guidance is in general agreement an upper trough will slide
southeast along the British Columbia coast Tuesday-Thursday,
and ensembles have come into a bit better agreement in the depth
and intensity of the trough, but minor fluctuations of the systems
storm track will greatly influence sfc precipitation type during
this period. As such, have focused on looking at the WPC cluster
analysis (all 90 ensemble members from GFS/CMC/ECMWF) for the
24-hour period ending 00z Thurs. The Cluster Analysis tool is
useful in identifying ensemble uncertainty, as well as potential
extremes and the forecast. Per the Cluster 500mb heights,
approximately 55% of the distribution indicates a deepening
trough offshore of Vancouver Island, with a more elongated trough
noted on only 21% of the cluster (primarily GFS). This would
suggest a deeper, stronger system is likely. One of the main
impacts from a stronger system would be increased southwesterly
flow, and thus warmer temperatures both at the surface and aloft
on Wednesday. This can be seen on the cluster analysis max/min
temperatures, with temperatures a tad warmer than the mean with a
deeper trough. With all that said, temperatures will still be
below average during this period due to the previous trough moving
overhead Sunday-Monday, and thus making for a rather tricky setup
for potential wintry precipitation in the lowlands due to the
lower snow levels. Reviewing NBM guidance for the 72-hour period
ending 12z Friday shows widespread 60-90% chance of >1" of snow
for the lowlands. Potential for 4 inches or more favors the
Cascade Foothills/Valleys (50-80% chance). In addition to the
western Kitsap County area (60-90% chance) due to colder air
sticking around that area longer. As for the I-5 corridor a
general theme of higher probabilities exist north of Seattle
(40-70%), and less southward (25-50%). Minor fluctuations in the
storm intensity/track will lead to any further adjustments in
thinking for lowland snow. For that reason, it will continue to be
important to stay updated on the weather forecast during this
period. Finally (if you're still reading), the trough will
reinforce the cold airmass for the Pacific Northwest late next
week. Temperatures will be well below normal for this time period,
with widespread lows in the teens/20s and highs in the 30s on
Friday. JD |
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treeswarper Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006 Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Sun Nov 27, 2022 9:05 pm
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Meanwhile, in the other part...
One forecast has a few inches for here, whilst another says a foot.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Chief Joseph Member
Joined: 10 Nov 2007 Posts: 7677 | TRs | Pics Location: Verlot-Priest Lake |
Coming down hard and wet here in Verlot, about 4" in an hour and a half and supposed to snow 'till 3 am, so probably close a foot or more. Threw a tarp on my car, supposed to be wet first then cold and freeze.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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Jordan y
Joined: 22 Feb 2008 Posts: 559 | TRs | Pics Location: shoreline |
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Jordan
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:22 am
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Chief Joseph wrote: | Coming down hard and wet here in Verlot, about 4" in an hour and a half and supposed to snow 'till 3 am, so probably close a foot or more. Threw a tarp on my car, supposed to be wet first then cold and freeze. |
Stop bragging
none
jaysway, rossb SpookyKite89
none
jaysway, rossb SpookyKite89
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Chief Joseph Member
Joined: 10 Nov 2007 Posts: 7677 | TRs | Pics Location: Verlot-Priest Lake |
Jordan wrote: | Chief Joseph wrote: | Coming down hard and wet here in Verlot, about 4" in an hour and a half and supposed to snow 'till 3 am, so probably close a foot or more. Threw a tarp on my car, supposed to be wet first then cold and freeze. |
Stop bragging |
Well, I thought sure it would be at least 6" but ended up being more like 4".... .....but more on the way.
At least I don't have to shovel...yet.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
SpookyKite89
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
SpookyKite89
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rossb Member
Joined: 23 Sep 2002 Posts: 1679 | TRs | Pics
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rossb
Member
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:20 pm
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I appreciate the updates, Chief. I'm thinking of visiting the Mountain Loop, and just skiing the road. You don't need much snow when you are on pavement (as opposed to a gravel road).
Cyclopath
Cyclopath
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Chief Joseph Member
Joined: 10 Nov 2007 Posts: 7677 | TRs | Pics Location: Verlot-Priest Lake |
Roadway is bare and wet today, probably icy after dark. Heavier snow predicted for tomorrow.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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treeswarper Alleged Sockpuppet!
Joined: 25 Dec 2006 Posts: 11272 | TRs | Pics Location: Don't move here |
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treeswarper
Alleged Sockpuppet!
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:37 pm
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It isn't snow here, it's the wind. We have the common North Wind whistling down the valley and the temperature was 26. You do the math. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
It does make for a very quick dog though.
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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BigBrunyon Member
Joined: 19 Mar 2015 Posts: 1450 | TRs | Pics Location: the fitness gyms!! |
By my research its gonna be near certain to get a Big Snow Event. Mainly based on the analysis. I'm predictin' Big Snow Events.
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Snowshovel Member
Joined: 05 Apr 2021 Posts: 252 | TRs | Pics
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treeswarper wrote: | It isn't snow here, it's the wind |
That sounds straight out of the Progressive “becoming your parents” commercial.
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Joey verrry senior member
Joined: 05 Jun 2005 Posts: 2794 | TRs | Pics Location: Redmond |
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Joey
verrry senior member
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:45 pm
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Click the map at your area and follow the link for NOAA details.
Seattle up to 3".
My neighborhood NE of Redmond up to 8"
View larger size in new window
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