Forum Index > Trail Talk > North Cascade National Park Grizzley Bear Reintroduction
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Kim Brown
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Kim Brown
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 10:03 pm 
Randito wrote:
The numbers in BC are a good guide.
Maybe, but....out of how many people, hiking where? Maybe more people were in black bear territory than brown bear territory. Or the people around black bears were less careful about how they hike than those who hike in brown bear territory. And what's the definition of "conflict?" Some might say any encounter where a black bear didn't leave when requested is a conflict. Humans are so pompous. Stats are hard to rely on, not knowing all the variables. (Maybe the study does address all that, though) But the numbers you provide are a good start for data. Gotta start somewhere.

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slabbyd
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 10:53 pm 
Secret Agent Man wrote:
It isn’t “allowing nature to be nature” when humans built highways and towns and all sorts of other infrastructure between where the bears are now and the North Cascades, preventing a natural reintegration. Unless you are proposing to destroy every human development between Chilliwack and Penticton? Then nature could be nature, but I doubt our neighbors to the north would go for it.
There ain’t much between Hope and Penticton other than Hwy-3. Very little infrastructure over a huge spread of land. I find it hard to believe this creates some sort of virtual fence keeping Grizzlies out. Something like 20+ years ago Canada reintroduced a small number of grizzlies in this exact area. Wound be curious to know what happened to them. They never came south. Did they fizzle out or all make a beeline due north?

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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 11:10 pm 
Secret Agent Man wrote:
It isn’t “allowing nature to be nature” when humans Canadians built highways and towns and all sorts of other infrastructure between where the bears are now and the North Cascades, preventing a natural reintegration.
FIFY

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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 11:14 pm 
Secret Agent Man wrote:
Don’t hide behind the natural reintegration lie.
Oh, yeah... you mean like the "natural reintegration lie" about the Gray Wolf coming into Washington State from Canada, Oregon, and Idaho? Details are all included (with numbers and dates) in the Washington State Wolf Management Plan It's a hell of a read... a bit lengthier than the one on the goats, but not nearly as tedious as the National Historic Preservation Act or some other tomes I've had to wade through. Try it - you'll like it. Facts are always refreshing.

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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 11:17 pm 
Bernardo wrote:
"... an evidence-based estimate for the human lives that would be lost due to reintroduction...."
If someone would be kind enough to loan me their bong for a few days, I'll bet I could come up with an answer.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."

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Randito
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 11:23 pm 
Bounties and hunting permits for Grizz where eliminated long ago in Washington, If the North Cascades / Pasayten were a favorable habitat for Grizz , considering that Grizz are present in Southern BC they would have reestablished at least some population by now. But Grizz seem as elusive as Sasquatch. The WDFW does relocate / kill problematic black bears as needed. The idea that if Grizz are reintroduced to the North Cascades that they start breeding like rabbits and swarming into populated areas and the WDFW will be powerless to manage the problem might be fodder for a "Z grade" movie.

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Bruce Albert
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 11:40 pm 
Randito wrote:
This is standard inability to understand how to apply probability to everyday activities argument.
Randito wrote:
The air travel argument is classic of this type of misguided thinking
Are we discussing the same comment? I'm not seeing where I made any sort of comparison or placed various risks faced by the NCNP user in any sort of hierarchy, thereby ignoring one and elevating another. I simply stated that no matter how overwhelmingly good the odds, a person using those odds as part of their reasoning structure in a decision to go/not go to the NCNP has to realize there's no guarantee they'll wind up on the happy side of those probabilities. Every now and then somebody's going to buck that one in a million chance and come up on the wrong side of the wrong bear. But yeah, I am 100% for the return of the bears. I do think the bears should and can figure out the details for themselves, without further mucking around by the humans who messed it up in the first place.

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Randito
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PostTue Nov 29, 2022 12:10 am 
Bruce Albert wrote:
I simply stated that no matter how overwhelmingly good the odds, a person using those odds as part of their reasoning structure in a decision to go/not go to the NCNP has to realize there's no guarantee they'll wind up on the happy side of those probabilities. Every now and then somebody's going to buck that one in a million chance and come up on the wrong side of the wrong bear.
Sure -- also on average 3 people per month die in motor vehicle collisions in Skagit, Whatcom and Okanogan counties. Yet your focus is on the one person in fifty years that gets killed by a bear vs the 1800 fatal motor vehicle collisions in the same areas over the same time period. I think the fear of being eaten is amplifiying the percieved risk considerably.

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PostTue Nov 29, 2022 12:56 am 
Bruce Albert wrote:
"I do think the bears should and can figure out the details for themselves..."
And that is, all things considered, the best possible management strategy: do nothing. At some point in the future, the Provincial Government of British Columbia may choose to effect remedy to the issue of fragmented wildlife migratory corridors. It is possible that such action might have positive effects for the resident caribou in the Selkirks (if any of them still exist) and would allow bears that might be so inclined an avenue of egress. Doing that requires that we do exactly nothing. "Sometimes the best course of action is no action at all." - Harry Cody, District Ranger, Randle Ranger District, GPNF

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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timberghost
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PostTue Nov 29, 2022 5:41 am 
Exactly

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Kim Brown
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Kim Brown
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PostTue Nov 29, 2022 11:54 am 
slabbyd wrote:
There ain’t much between Hope and Penticton other than Hwy-3
Damn fine name for an album. Or Scripture. Jesus missed out on that one. Would have been popular, I think. But overall, interesting discussion and information, which I haven't really looked at much. No offense; but I don't know that we'll ever need to use it, as I doubt the grizz re-intro will ever happen. Then again, I didn't think the bridge over the Stilly at Big 4 would be rebuilt....On the other hand, Index-Galena Road isn't done yet....

"..living on the east side of the Sierra world be ideal - except for harsher winters and the chance of apocalyptic fires burning the whole area." Bosterson, NWHiker's marketing expert
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Lazyhiker
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PostTue Nov 29, 2022 3:25 pm 
What would be artificial about reintroducing grizzlies to the north Cascades? I’m pretty sure it would be a real reintroduction.

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RumiDude
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PostWed Nov 30, 2022 9:33 am 
Here is a pretty good article from Crosscut about reintroduction of grizzly into the North Cascades ecosystem. I encourage all to read it. Rumi

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altasnob
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PostWed Nov 30, 2022 10:16 am 
Op-Ed from two carnivore conservation specialist at the Woodland Park Zoo arguing for reintroduction: https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/support-reintroducing-grizzly-bears-to-the-north-cascades/

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Worthington
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PostWed Nov 30, 2022 11:20 am 
Bruce Albert wrote:
Worthington wrote:
For people who think there already is a small population of Grizzly bears breeding in Washington, and has been for the last few years or more: Why have no people photographed one? (everyone has a camera with them at all times for the past decade) Why has no physical evidence (hair/bone/roadkill) been confirmed?
A scarcity of sightings of a species does not conflate with their absence. In sixty-plus active and reasonably observant years in the Cascades I have seen, for example, exactly two Cougars...a similarly controversial species whose population is widely accepted to be on the increase and a possible if rare threat to humans. One was dead on US2 at Eagle Falls and the other was crossing the highway at Scenic. Go figure. (OTOH over time I sense that quite a few Cougars have seen me and passed on the opportunity...)
You aren't making the case that you think you are. You've personally seen multiple cougars, despite cougars being smaller than Grizzlies and nocturnal. But your N=1 experience isn't relevant. Look at the overall results from the hundreds of thousands of people who spent time in the backcountry or at least the wilderness-urban-interface. People somewhere in the WA Cascades see a cougar (or confirmable tracks, bones, scat) every day (or at least certainly more than 365 discrete total encounters in a given year). If people reflexively wanted to photograph the cougars that they spot or find dead (as they would if they thought it were a Grizzly or a bigfoot) we'd have hundreds of such photos taken annually. Yet we have 0 photos of grizzlies, despite record high backcountry users, and everyone now having amazing cameras in their pockets. Again - I don't think it's *impossible* for there to have been or soon be a Grizz or 2 in WA for a few months. But I would love to read the reasoning of people who think there's a greater than 50% probability that a sustaining population of these animals has lived in WA for years, and no yet physical or photographic evidence has been found. Do you sort of romantically hope or wish this to be the case, or would you truly put money at even odds on their sustained presence? Isn't it just far more likely that there are NOT such animals here?

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