[vogtski]

[peter707]

I decided to find out how many days the gate to Paradise was open so far this winter. I will use the timeframe "October 21 - April 1". First, I am looking at self-reported road status. Later, I'll look at some digital footprints, and try to confirm the status of the unknown days (and verify that it was really open). It would also be possible to look at the paradise snow-tel data https://snoflo.org/report/snow/washington/paradise/ and the nwac forcast for that day, to gain a larger understanding of the factors explaining the closure on a given day, but I'll leave that for someone with a better understanding of snow conditions. I have 6 possible outcomes - Unknown, Open, OpenLate (tweet after 9:25am), AccessChangeWeekdayClosure, Closed, and LastMinuteClosed. Results: Total=162 AccessChangeWeekdayClosure=88 LastMinuteClosed=3 Closed=20 OpenLate=14 Open=37 Out of the 162 winter-season days, the road was open on time 23% of the time, with another 9% of the time opening late. Out of the 74 potential opening days, the road was open 50% of the time, with another 19% of the time opening late. 27% closed, and 4% last-minute-closure. Data: October 21, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1583587662010601472?cxt=HHwWgMCqjdSlhPorAAAA October 22, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1583895397855920129?cxt=HHwWgoCg6Z6ekPsrAAAA October 23, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1584220433858981889?cxt=HHwWgsCj4emFpPwrAAAA October 24, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1584577163587899392?cxt=HHwWgMDSrZ2ixv0rAAAA October 25, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1584913766952861696?cxt=HHwWgIDQ7Y-r3_4rAAAA October 26, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1585284770098880515?cxt=HHwWhoCl2ayGiIAsAAAA October 27, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1585663935553818629?cxt=HHwWisCqvde8tIEsAAAA October 28, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1586023504448626688?cxt=HHwWgIClwaz-14IsAAAA October 29, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1586381685414801408?cxt=HHwWgMCt1Zzv-oMsAAAA October 30, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1586743051086544896?cxt=HHwWgICq3byZn4UsAAAA October 31, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1587105172311842817?cxt=HHwWgoCpjdrvw4YsAAAA November 1, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1587474963732172803?cxt=HHwWhsCo8bKE7IcsAAAA November 2, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1587861347852697600?cxt=HHwWgICq9fTem4ksAAAA November 3, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1588193150958333952?cxt=HHwWgMCj2bLQsoosAAAA November 4, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1588533751016869888?cxt=HHwWgMCi8fbBzYssAAAA November 5, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1588934032972476416?cxt=HHwWgMDT7bPFg40sAAAA November 6, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1589271852589121536?cxt=HHwWgIDQkYyVnY4sAAAA November 7, 2022 - LastMinuteClosed- https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1589664831950704641?cxt=HHwWgsDSxcDvz48sAAAA November 8, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1590035269629399040?cxt=HHwWgMDSqeip-JAsAAAA November 9, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1590395583432642561?cxt=HHwWgsDSreuWnJIsAAAA November 10, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1590751180359360512?cxt=HHwWgIDT9abxvZMsAAAA November 11, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1591110715376816128?cxt=HHwWgMDSxf-w4ZQsAAAA November 12, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1591469177923342336?cxt=HHwWgMDU0aGyhJYsAAAA November 13, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1591831859993911299?cxt=HHwWhoCx0ZGpqZcsAAAA November 14, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1592227362619686912?cxt=HHwWgIDU6bWW3ZgsAAAA November 15, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1592556524945420288?cxt=HHwWgMDRoZju8pksAAAA November 16, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1592931499778580481?cxt=HHwWgoCpvcywnZssAAAA November 17, 2022 - LastMinuteClosed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1593267679917244416?cxt=HHwWgICg2e2gtpwsAAAA November 18, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1593623247068676096?cxt=HHwWgICqtcv5150sAAAA November 19, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1593983484300734464?cxt=HHwWgMCt-ZPi-54sAAAA November 20, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1594369510580289537?cxt=HHwWgoDQ7eunq6AsAAAA November 21, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1594711993428373504?cxt=HHwWgMDT9fuGx6EsAAAA November 22, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1595070615089983488?cxt=HHwWgMDRwb-R6qIsAAAA November 23, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1595437138023260161?cxt=HHwWgoC9lfjnkKQsAAAA November 24, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1595797229025038336?cxt=HHwWgMC4mf_HtKUsAAAA November 25, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1596167382904754179?cxt=HHwWhsDSweTx3KYsAAAA November 26, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1596553852391927808?cxt=HHwWgMDRyaLRjKgsAAAA November 27, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1596885190487728128?cxt=HHwWgIDT4deno6ksAAAA November 28, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1597270735252525059?cxt=HHwWhsDUjazR0qosAAAA November 29, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1597608238308118528?cxt=HHwWgMC-6c2O7KssAAAA All weekdays closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1597662038267813888?cxt=HHwWgICj4ZbKhKwsAAAA closed x 3 December 3 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1599102983106502658?cxt=HHwWhICltZrsk7EsAAAA December 4 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1599449699202658310?cxt=HHwWjMCj0d7BsbIsAAAA closed x 5 December 10 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1601607139658981377?cxt=HHwWgoDT0abNhrosAAAA December 11 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1601986542154977280?cxt=HHwWgMDUwbeRs7ssAAAA closed x 5 December 17 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1604160496004993024?cxt=HHwWgMC88Znej8MsAAAA December 18 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1604528610794246145?cxt=HHwWgsC85aaRt8QsAAAA closed x 5 December 24 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1606682739830583297?cxt=HHwWgsDT5Y7ciswsAAAA December 25 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1607061214399713281?cxt=HHwWgsDSiZ7qts0sAAAA closed x 5 December 31 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1609249649172299777?cxt=HHwWgoCy3fOBmtUsAAAA January 1 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1609598872929566721?cxt=HHwWgoCwvbPpuNYsAAAA closed x 5 January 7 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1611772883575140352?cxt=HHwWgMDTgb25ld4sAAAA January 8 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1612149455675068418?cxt=HHwWhMDQ5e3YwN8sAAAA closed x 5 January 14 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1614312404560625664 January 15 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1614670809079091200?cxt=HHwWgMDQxfiiu-gsAAAA closed x 5 January 21 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1616848489157394434?cxt=HHwWhIDUvc3ImfAsAAAA January 22 2023 - LastMinuteClosed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1617213624640065536?cxt=HHwWgMC-6aTOv_EsAAAA closed x 5 January 28 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1619381932437168128?cxt=HHwWgIDT6bTSmfksAAAA January 29 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1619744471402573825?cxt=HHwWgsDTzfrAvvosAAAA closed x 5 February 4 2023 - Open* - no tweet, gpx track online, https://www.strava.com/activities/8510871091/segments/3057356060446697910 February 5 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1622292556041129991?cxt=HHwWjsC8yYCfxYMtAAAA closed x 5 February 11 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1624455226252984323?cxt=HHwWhoCwpf3anIstAAAA February 12 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1624809316262809602?cxt=HHwWhMC4ud3dvYwtAAAA closed x 5 February 18 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1626993016962527235?cxt=HHwWhsC9wevhnpQtAAAA February 19 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1627354656803536896?cxt=HHwWgIDSpYacw5UtAAAA closed x 5 February 25 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1629527364354076672?cxt=HHwWgMDTgaOgn50tAAAA February 26 2023 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1629864924183953408?cxt=HHwWgIDU3evguJ4tAAAA closed x 5 March 4 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1632096181466824705?cxt=HHwWgoDQ-Y21r6YtAAAA March 5 2023 - Open* - no tweet, gpx track online, https://www.strava.com/activities/8667305321#3075559002396188024 closed x 5 March 11 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1634608115504250880?cxt=HHwWgIDQ-fTapa8tAAAA March 12 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1634939267335196672?cxt=HHwWgMDQrb6mvLAtAAAA closed x 5 March 18 2023 - Open* - no tweet, gpx track online: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-camp-muir-route-via-skyline-trail-26b58a4 March 19 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1637477989125591041?cxt=HHwWgsDQ1cXjvrktAAAA closed x 5 March 25 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1639670090827452416?cxt=HHwWgMDSidTQo8EtAAAA March 26 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1640025255858307072?cxt=HHwWgIDU4f2RxcItAAAA closed x 5 April 1 2023 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1642171291724664832?cxt=HHwWgMC--dqFlcotAAAA April 2 2023 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1642532792620974081?cxt=HHwWgoDUweq3ucstAAAA closed x 5 April 8 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1644732796320219136?cxt=HHwWgIDQsfPwodMtAAAA April 9 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1645095293472608257?cxt=HHwWgsDQ0YHdxtQtAAAA Edit: I'll keep adding the days, then recalculate the summary statistics at the top at the end of the season.

[vogtski]

Thanks for all that work, Peter! I find it useful to separate your data into before and after weekday closure. Since the weekday closure was instituted ~12% of the weekend days remained closed, ~26% of weekend openings were late, and 62% were on time. In the forty days between the beginning of nightly closures at Longmire until the announcement of the weekend only schedule, 19 days (~47%) were closed, including two at the last minute; ~40% of days opened on time, ~12% late. I'd expect early season opening to be easier due to higher snowlines and less snowpack. The gate is opened before the tweets are sent. Judging by the Longmire webcam, sometimes there is a delay tweeting if the ranger is interrupted by other business or just forgets. My old ski buddy 'Winter Raven' worked at the Longmire ski rental for years and claimed there were 'Stealth Openings' where the gate was open but the tweet was 'closed' a couple times each winter... Back in the 90's, I used to figure about one hour delay past 8AM (the gate opening time then) for every six inches of new snow at Paradise. This has steadily deteriorated to about one hour for each three inches of new. The number of closed days averaged about 25-30 per winter then and has been steadily increasing since. The real comparison is that in the four months since the weekday closure only 25% of winter days have been open, even tho the webcams show Paradise plowed about 5 days out of 7. Hurricane Ridge, with far fewer staff, tries to open Friday-Sunday in the winter, so Rainier management strikes me as more reluctant than shorthanded.

[Randito]

[Bruce Albert]

[altasnob]

[vogtski]

[Randito]

[vogtski]

Well, not quite everything, Greg... ---------------------------------------------- NWAC Backcountry Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South Issued Saturday, April 8, 2023 - 6:30PM Expires Sunday, April 9, 2023 - 6:30PM Author Andy Harrington Avalanche Danger: 4- HIGH THE BOTTOM LINE An atmospheric river is set to impact the West South zone on Sunday, resulting in very dangerous avalanche conditions. Expect wet avalanches large enough to bury and kill you to occur on most steep slopes. It likely won’t be a very pleasant day outside, so better to stay out of the mountains until the rain has stopped. https://nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/#/west-slopes-south --------------------------------------------------------- Twitter MountRainierNPS @MountRainierNPS The gate to Paradise at Longmire is open. All vehicles are required to carry tire chains. -lv 9:04 AM · Apr 9, 2023 · 546 Views ------------------------------------------------------ "...said Greg Dudgeon, park superintendent. “The park did not make this decision lightly, but safety is at the forefront of everything we do. We believe these winter access changes are the safest choice for our staff and visitors during the winter season.” https://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/news/mount-rainier-national-park-announces-winter-2022-23-recreational-access-changes.htm

[peter707]

https://nwac.us/pro-obs/20230407_paradise/

[peter707]

Here's the NWAC avalanche forecast archive so far. It may be possible to examine the correlation between NWAC forcast and paradise opening, to see if it's mostly weather conditions or avalanche conditions, that pose the most operational issues. This date in this comment are the date the forecast is published, so the April 8, 2023 high forcast would apply to April 9, 2023. https://nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/#/archive

[Cyclopath]

[Randito]

[vogtski]

[quote="peter707"] Here's the NWAC avalanche forecast archive so far. It may be possible to examine the correlation between NWAC forcast and paradise opening, to see if it's mostly weather conditions or avalanche conditions, that pose the most operational issues. This date in this comment are the date the forecast is published, so the April 8, 2023 high forcast would apply to April 9, 2023. https://nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/#/archive [quote/] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks again for sharing these! I tried to add your earlier Open/Closed list to this one. It's possible I screwed up the data because this list runs from present back to late November and the other from October to now. Also, Dec 7 and Feb 4 are double-listed on your recent one. I doubt the weather/avalanche effect is "mostly/or", if by weather you mean snowfall They probably work together to delay/prevent opening. Employee illness and equipment breakdowns are other significant factors among many. This winter's snowfall totals are probably distorted: Paradise telemetry Status Alert 2022-12-09 Due to limited road access, the 24hr Snow Board will not be cleared on a daily basis. It will be manually reset to 0, when park staff are able to reach the weather station plot. IMO, these lists would show any correlations more clearly by bumping all the NWAC forecasts to the same line/day they apply as your April 8-9 hazard seems to do, rather than the previous day they were issued. To simplify, I just assumed the listed closures in November before NWAC forecasting began were due to short staffing. Here's my totals since then: Open - High (1 day) Open - Considerable (15) Open - Moderate (20) Open - Low (1) Closed - High (2 days) Closed - Considerable (7) Closed - Moderate (1) --------------------------------------------------- STATUS DATE NWAC FORECAST OPEN Apr 9, 2023 considerable OPEN Apr 8, 2023 high (open April 9th 2023!) Apr 7, 2023 moderate Apr 6, 2023 considerable Apr 5, 2023 considerable Apr 4, 2023 moderate Apr 3, 2023 moderate CLOSED Apr 2, 2023 moderate CLOSED Apr 1, 2023 considerable Mar 31, 2023 considerable Mar 30, 2023 moderate Mar 29, 2023 moderate Mar 28, 2023 moderate Mar 27, 2023 moderate OPEN Mar 26, 2023 moderate LATE Mar 25, 2023 moderate Mar 24, 2023 considerable Mar 23, 2023 considerable Mar 22, 2023 moderate Mar 21, 2023 moderate Mar 20, 2023 moderate OPEN Mar 19, 2023 moderate OPEN Mar 18, 2023 moderate Mar 17, 2023 considerable Mar 16, 2023 moderate Mar 15, 2023 moderate Mar 14, 2023 moderate Mar 13, 2023 considerable LATE Mar 12, 2023 considerable LATE Mar 11, 2023 considerable Mar 10, 2023 considerable Mar 9, 2023 considerable Mar 8, 2023 moderate Mar 7, 2023 moderate Mar 6, 2023 moderate OPEN Mar 5, 2023 moderate LATE Mar 4, 2023 considerable Mar 3, 2023 considerable Mar 2, 2023 considerable Mar 1, 2023 considerable Feb 28, 2023 moderate Feb 27, 2023 moderate CLOSED Feb 26, 2023 considerable OPEN Feb 25, 2023 considerable Feb 24, 2023 moderate Feb 23, 2023 moderate Feb 22, 2023 considerable Feb 21, 2023 considerable Feb 20, 2023 considerable OPEN Feb 19, 2023 considerable OPEN Feb 18, 2023 moderate Feb 17, 2023 moderate Feb 16, 2023 moderate Feb 15, 2023 moderate Feb 14, 2023 moderate Feb 13, 2023 considerable OPEN Feb 12, 2023 considerable OPEN Feb 11, 2023 moderate Feb 10, 2023 moderate Feb 9, 2023 moderate Feb 8, 2023 moderate Feb 7, 2023 considerable Feb 6, 2023 considerable LATE Feb 5, 2023 considerable OPEN Feb 4, 2023 moderate Feb 4, 2023 moderate Feb 3, 2023 considerable Feb 2, 2023 moderate Feb 1, 2023 low Jan 31, 2023 moderate Jan 30, 2023 moderate Jan 30, 2023 moderate OPEN Jan 29, 2023 moderate OPEN Jan 28, 2023 moderate Jan 27, 2023 moderate Jan 26, 2023 moderate Jan 25, 2023 low Jan 24, 2023 moderate Jan 23, 2023 moderate CLOSED Jan 22, 2023 moderate OPEN Jan 21, 2023 considerable Jan 20, 2023 moderate Jan 19, 2023 moderate Jan 18, 2023 moderate Jan 17, 2023 moderate Jan 16, 2023 moderate OPEN Jan 15, 2023 moderate LATE Jan 14, 2023 moderate Jan 13, 2023 considerable Jan 12, 2023 considerable Jan 11, 2023 high Jan 10, 2023 moderate Jan 9, 2023 moderate LATE Jan 8, 2023 considerable OPEN Jan 7, 2023 moderate Jan 6, 2023 moderate Jan 5, 2023 moderate Jan 4, 2023 moderate Jan 3, 2023 moderate Jan 2, 2023 moderate OPEN Jan 1, 2023 moderate OPEN Dec 31, 2022 moderate Dec 30, 2022 considerable Dec 29, 2022 considerable Dec 28, 2022 moderate Dec 27, 2022 considerable Dec 26, 2022 considerable OPEN Dec 25, 2022 considerable CLOSED Dec 24, 2022 considerable Dec 23, 2022 high (paradise closed December 24) Dec 22, 2022 considerable Dec 21, 2022 considerable Dec 20, 2022 considerable Dec 20, 2022 considerable Dec 19, 2022 considerable LATE Dec 18, 2022 moderate OPEN Dec 17, 2022 moderate Dec 16, 2022 moderate Dec 15, 2022 moderate Dec 14, 2022 moderate Dec 13, 2022 moderate Dec 12, 2022 moderate Dec 11, 2022 moderate CLOSED Dec 10, 2022 considerable OPEN Dec 9, 2022 high (paradise closed dec 10) Dec 8, 2022 moderate Dec 7, 2022 moderate Dec 6, 2022 moderate Dec 5, 2022 moderate OPEN Dec 4, 2022 moderate LATE Dec 3, 2022 moderate Dec 2, 2022 moderate Dec 1, 2022 moderate Nov 30, 2022 considerable ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHANGE TO WEEKEND ONLY SCHEDULE ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLOSED Nov 29, 2022 considerable CLOSED Nov 28, 2022 moderate CLOSED Nov 27, 2022 moderate OPEN Nov 26, 2022 considerable CLOSED Nov 25, 2022 low NWAC BEGINS AVY FORECASTS CLOSED Nov 23, 2022 CLOSED Nov 21, 2022 CLOSED Nov 18, 2022 OPEN Nov 16, 2022

[vogtski]

The American public traditionally rates the National Park Service among the most admired federal agencies. The latest edition of federal Best Places To Work is just out. For the past eighteen years of this survey, NPS employees have rated their own management in the bottom quarter of all federal agencies. Their 2022 score ranked 371st out of 432 agencies: https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/detail/?c=IN10 Search "Best Places To Work" at https://www.nationalparkstraveler.org/ for past annual summaries & interesting comments.