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letsgobobby
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letsgobobby
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PostSat Jul 02, 2022 10:21 pm 
Supposed to do the Chelan Lakeshore trail this weekend and forecast is for chance of thunderstorms, sometimes heavy. Trail seems sort of exposed. Is this a bad idea? Might just go all the way to Stehekin and camp back of the visitor center rather than risk the Lakeshore if it's really going to storm?

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letsgobobby
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 7:12 am 
Updated forecast includes threat of torrential rains flash floods debris flows especially below areas of recent burns and steep slopes. Pretty much the Lakeshore trail to a tee. Going to bail.

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gb
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 7:51 am 
Pretty exceptional conditions - once in a blue moon. NWS Spokane Discussion:
Quote:
National Weather Service Spokane WA 450 AM PDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the Fourth of July. Look for potentially heavy rain showers and lightning over the holiday weekend. The rest of next week looks to trend drier and warmer with showers and thunderstorms isolated and mostly over the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... ...RISKS FOR FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TODAY... Today through Independence Day: Today is concerning for the potential of flash flooding and debris flows. In particular, there is a concern for high impact flash flooding in the east slopes of the northern Cascades and over the mountains of northeast Washington, and to a lesser extent over the Northern Panhandle. High resolution models are coming in line with a particularly favorable set up for flash flooding across these areas. 1) Anomalous precipitable water values. Moisture being pumped up be an upper level low just off of the Washington/Oregon border and will peak at right around an inch late morning into early afternoon. Water vapor imagery does show a dry slot rounding the low over northern California at 2:00 AM and this will begin to shift in over eastern Washington this afternoon behind a shortwave disturbance. This will help to decrease P-wats a little bit, but probably not enough to sufficiently decrease the potential for flash flooding. 2) Ample lift to get convection going. As mentioned above, there is a robust shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level low early this morning with favorable dynamics aloft both in the form of positive vorticity advection and diffluence/divergence aloft to aid thunderstorm updrafts. Strongest synoptic scale lift will occur during the morning to early afternoon hours. In additions, southerly to southeasterly flow at low to mid levels will focus moisture and favorable orographics into the east slopes of the Northern Cascades and into the higher topography across the Okanogan Highlands and Northeast Mountains. Training of thunderstorms will be possible with one thunderstorms updraft developing in the same location as the previous once the thunderstorm drifts off of the higher terrain. 3) Around 1,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE with a deep moist sounding profile and a skinny CAPE profile. Sounding profiles also indicate around 5,000 feet of warm saturated cloud layer (above 0 degrees ) that would suggest ample collision and coalescence to form large water droplets. Ample instability creating strong updrafts with anomalous moisture in the atmosphere is likely to produce very heavy rain rates that could exceed an inch per hour. 4) Finally, we are looking a slow storm motions, particularly in the east slopes of the northern Cascades closer to the center of the upper level low. Storms will be moving slowly to the north- northwest at around 5-10 mph. Storm motion does look to increase to around 15 mph to the north across the Northeast Mountains and Northern Panhandle. Putting all of these ingredients together and we are looking at a potentially dangerous flash flooding situation. Anyone camping in the these areas should be well aware of drainages they are in and where to reach higher ground if need be. Recent burn scars and steep terrain will be of particular concern as rain will even less likely to seep into the ground with greater runoff. Be on the look out for Flash Flood Warnings that may be issued for your location. Also be aware that flash flooding can travel miles down drainages from where the heavy rain is occurring. A secondary threat with thunderstorms today will be for hail and gusty winds. Instability looks good over the northern zones where flash flooding is most likely, but there is a lack of deep layer shear to tilt storms over. These thunderstorms will pulse up quickly, but may have a hard time maintaining their strength long enough to become severe. It is notable that the calibrated severe thunderstorm product from SPC SREF does show a bullseye of higher probability for severe potential over the Okanogan Highlands for today. Better shear will be over the far southeast portion of the forecast area from the Camas Prairie to the Central Panhandle Mountains where SPC does have our area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. This area will also see surface based CAPEs of near 1,000 J/kg and will be a more likely area for isolated severe thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the decrease through the evening with the shortwave disturbance pushing north out of the region. There will be a break between shortwaves overnight. Then there will be another shortwave that rounds the upper level low for the 4th of July. This will be a "round 2" of sorts with similar potential impacts as today. There will be a continued risk for flash flooding and debris flows across the northern mountains; Risk in particular will be high again over the east slopes of the Cascades to the Northeast Mountains where storm motion will be less. Soils also figure to be more saturated across these areas after receiving a health does of rainfall today. Temperatures will be cooler today and tomorrow with highs topping out in the 70s and below normal for the 4th of July holiday weekend. /SVH Monday night: The shortwave trough will continue to slowly move North. Shower activity will mainly be in the Northern Mountains and North ID Panhandle. It is expected to slowly taper off through the overnight. Weak instability in these areas could produce an isolated thunderstorm within the showers. Additional precip amounts are in the 0.25-0.5" range. Overnight lows will be in the

hikerbiker
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Joey
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Joey
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 8:45 am 
Flood watch area. Click map and follow link for details.
View larger size in new window

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texasbb
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texasbb
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 12:26 pm 
letsgobobby wrote:
Updated forecast includes threat of torrential rains flash floods debris flows especially below areas of recent burns and steep slopes.
Saw this at the mouth of Prince Creek in 2009:
Warning Sign at Prince Cr (2009)
Warning Sign at Prince Cr (2009)

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Joey
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 1:41 pm 
Flash flood warning now. Look at the map I posted, click the dark red area and follow the link.

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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 5:25 pm 
Super heavy rains here today along with rumbles. A super serious warning was put out for south of Wenatchee about big hail and 60 mph winds, so I'm happy with heavy rain.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
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treeswarper
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PostSun Jul 03, 2022 6:47 pm 
From facebook Okanogan County fire something group: * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected. * WHERE...Northwestern Okanogan County in north central Washington. * WHEN...Until 930 PM PDT. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 626 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.2 and 0.5 inches of rain have fallen. - This includes the Cub Creek and Cedar Creek burn scars. Avoid these areas, as they are especially susceptible to flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Winthrop, Nice Campground, Flat Campground, Memorial Campground, Falls Creek Campground, Ruffed Grouse Campground, Honeymoon Campground, Chewuch Campground, Camp Four Campground, Mazama, Andrews Creek Campground, Gate Creek Campground, Klipchuck Campground, Ballard Campground, Poplar Flat Campground, Rivers Bend Campground, Rattlesnake Campground, South Creek Campground, Gilbert and Roads End Campground.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
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gb
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gb
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PostMon Jul 04, 2022 7:41 am 
The rains have been intense but spotty and mostly short-lived. Most noticeable, Mazama got .42" of rain in one hour between 5 and 6 this morning. But total rain there was .8" thus far. Several places also got near an inch. In BC near Kelowna, a couple of stations show nearly 1-1/2" of rain in 24 hours. Pretty cold also for late June with many mountain stations in the upper 30's this am at 5000'. I'd like to think this is good news for fires, but who knows?

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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostMon Jul 04, 2022 1:55 pm 
Thunder Storms in the Front Country: Loup Loup Ski Area, which is trying to turn into a summer venue with bicycle rentals and chairlift rides, just shut down due to "the chance of lightning". Last week, their stuff and some communications stuff got knocked out by a lightning strike. Here in the O, it has become windy and I got rained on whilst returning with shrubberies. Luckily, it was not like yesterday's frog strangling downpours.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostMon Jul 04, 2022 5:16 pm 
Hour three of heavy rain and lightning begins. Conconully is flooded and folks are trapped in a campground up the North Fork Salmon river. Equipment is on the way. Bridges are flooded, etc. No traffic allowed in--only out. The town has flooding problems also. It's been a dark and stormy afternoon with constant heavy rain and sky electronics. I haven't been in a storm like this for some time.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostMon Jul 04, 2022 6:43 pm 
Campers also stranded up the West Chewuch. Mud, logs, water are across the road near Andrews Cr.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human末animals and aliens are great possibilities

SpookyKite89
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