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philfort
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philfort
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PostMon Oct 24, 2022 8:27 am 
jinx'sboy wrote:
Here is an archive of large fires since 1990. It is the archive of daily situation reports. Typically, forest fires above 100 acres, or larger range fires and/or fires that had a Type or 2 team assigned show up.
Thanks, that's useful. Here's a graph of westside acreage by year (just from ones I could remember) from 2000:
When I have time, I'll go through and add in any missing ones from jinx'sboy's link. I started, but when I got back to 2017, I began having trouble knowing what counts as "westside". Sawmill creek (north of Greenwater) is technically westside, but might have a more eastside climate.

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philfort
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PostMon Oct 24, 2022 8:29 am 
altasnob wrote:
That sucks Mass removes comments criticizing his takes. He seems like a sensitive guy so it may be the wording you chose to use. Make it more of a suggestion than a criticism and maybe he'll keep your comment and actually address it.
Here are some examples of comments that he refused to approve, you be the judge:

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jinx'sboy
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PostMon Oct 24, 2022 9:00 am 
Here are the last three years National Statistics. I’m sure this same report probably goes back further? https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/intelligence/2021_statssumm/2021Stats&Summ.html https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/intelligence/2020_statssumm/2020Stats&Summ.html https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/intelligence/2019_statssumm/2019Stats&Summ.html I didn’t spend much time looking at these. But #4 in each link does appear to have a State breakout. Also….if you do a search, there are Congressional Research Service (CRS) papers that also seem to capture a certain span of years…..it varies. (I believe these are usually produced in response to a Congressperson asking for info when they are drafting legislation, etc.) A sample: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10244/53

Cyclopath, philfort
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rossb
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PostMon Oct 24, 2022 11:01 am 
philfort wrote:
rossb wrote:
Folks are basically accusing him of cherry picking the data, by cherry picking one of his data points. The crux of his argument has nothing to do with that chart. The chart was simply showing absence of evidence.
Exactly! But Cliff Mass thinks it is enough to disprove the claim that greenhouse warming will increase westside fires.
No, its not. If it was, it would be a very short post. He mentions it as an introduction, as if to say "Where is your proof?". To which, everyone basically says "we've got none". You can add a few more dots on that list, and it still doesn't imply that there is any trend when it comes to west side fires. There are just too few data points. Even if there was a trend, it doesn't mean it has anything to do with warming temperatures (and not, say, public policies).
philfort wrote:
Also, I'm cherry picking because that's the only data I know about. I don't know anything about climate science, so I can't counteract his other arguments.
Then maybe you should just leave it alone. Look, I'm not a climatologist either. I'm not an expert on weather. But the claims he makes seem quite reasonable and are based on climate based papers. For example, I think there is a very strong correspondence between strong easterly winds and west side fires. So much so, that I don't think anyone has actually argued that point. Then he goes on to cite a peer-reviewed paper that claims that easterly winds will decrease. Then he explains why. This is a by far his strongest argument, and yet no one has addressed it. He also cites a paper showing that autumns will be wetter, even though they will be warmer. I think it is quite reasonable to assume that this will reduce the chances of big western fires. Look, I get why people don't like it that Cliff Mass has a bee in his bonnet when it comes to climate change reporting. He tends to focus on articles like this, instead of the opposite. But that doesn't mean that his argument is wrong, or lacks merit.

Snowshovel, neek, Navy salad
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Ski
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PostMon Oct 24, 2022 2:21 pm 
ross - Those large wildfire events that occurred in Western Washington during the recorded history of the area were driven by late-summer/early-fall warm winds coming over the Cascades from Eastern Washington. That was the case with the big Cispus Fires at the beginning of the 20th century. That was also reportedly the case in "The Big Fire" that Woodrow R. Clevinger wrote about in the Seattle Times in 1951 I'm sorry, but I fail to understand why there would be any point of contention about that fact.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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rossb
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PostMon Oct 24, 2022 2:25 pm 
Snowshovel wrote:
rossb wrote:
I think Cliff Mass is wrong on a lot of things. He has Ben Carson disease. He is knowledgeable about one thing (meteorology) and thinks that makes him an expert in other things (e. g. math education). He often downplays the importance of global warming, while admitting it will occur. For example, he is not a foreign policy expert, and ignores the geo-political impact of climate change. All of this is very annoying.
Applied science teachers and professors have always been de facto math instructors, much to their annoyance.
I get that. I know that Cliff Mass knows more about math than the average person. I'm sure he would have a worthwhile opinion on say, a college level statistics-and-probability textbook. But so far as I know, he knows nothing about teaching math at the elementary school level. Yet that doesn't stop from not only wading in, but taking a contrarian opinion from those that do. It is one thing to serve on the school board and offer up an opinion -- it is another to blatantly contradict the experts, and then use his level of prestige (which again, has nothing to do with K-12 education) to argue against the experts, repeatedly. That is what I mean by "Ben Carson" disease. Ben Carson, by the way, is a truly outstanding surgeon. Other surgeons will tell you so. But that doesn't mean he is suddenly ready to be coach of the Seahawks, let alone President of the United States. I honestly don't know why people feel this way -- other than just plain arrogance. They have risen in their field, have achieved some sort of notoriety because of it, and think that this automatically translates to other fields. It doesn't.

fourteen410, Secret Agent Man, joker, Ski
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altasnob
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PostFri Nov 18, 2022 12:14 pm 
Pretty insane, but there are fires out at Neah Bay right now. Not sure how they got started but the lack of rain and high winds is a factor: https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/evacuations-fires-neah-bay/281-a616dac2-d41b-4566-b408-49c7538e0663

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Malachai Constant
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PostFri Nov 18, 2022 4:53 pm 
Out of control slash burns.

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn

maurella
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