Forum Index > Trail Talk > From rags to riches - possible snow.
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gb
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gb
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 8:24 am 
The GFS model has been consistently showing a stronger trough coming into the area for 3 days or so next weekend. Temperatures aloft are shown to be -27C at 500mb (18,000'), which is pretty typical for winter. Rainfall appears it will dampen down North Cascade fires then, with possible light to moderate rolleyes.gif snow on peaks above 6-8000'.

Downhill, Cyclopath, rossb, Lindsay
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forest gnome
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 11:41 am 
A week long forecast is useless in wa...

Navy salad, dixon, paddington
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Chief Joseph
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 11:44 am 
Well, at least I chose the right year to take a hiking sabbatical. Dylan is supposed to head up here on the 20th so hope to hit a few trails, smokey here today. The world is gonna burn!

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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gb
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 12:12 pm 
forest gnome wrote:
A week long forecast is useless in wa...
Unless it is right!

Gil, Cyclopath, rossb, RichP
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thunderhead
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 3:03 pm 
The skill of forecast models has improved enough recently to make large features in the long range somewhat forecastable. Big/unusual storms...and especially big heat waves and cold spells... things like that can be predicted a week out with some regularity.

Cyclopath
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cdestroyer
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 4:09 pm 

mosey, Lindsay
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Get Out and Go
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 4:34 pm 
No guarantee, but I always pay attention to the forecast...for example, last January I posted: (Take note speed readers, NOT a current forecast)
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Can this really be right; 30" of snow predicted for next week?
Turns out they were only a little bit off, as it turned out to be 4 feet and mostly over Jan 5-6. breakdance.gif And BTW, my collapsed deck is still not repaired..... bricks.gif

"These are the places you will find me hiding'...These are the places I will always go." (Down in the Valley by The Head and The Heart) "Sometimes you're happy. Sometimes you cry. Half of me is ocean. Half of me is sky." (Thanks, Tom Petty)
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ale_capone
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PostSat Sep 10, 2022 11:26 pm 
gb wrote:
forest gnome wrote:
A week long forecast is useless in wa...
Unless it is right!
A week long forecast is totally useful for establishing trending for when they are wrong.

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gb
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gb
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PostSun Sep 11, 2022 3:31 am 
NWS Seattle Discussion:
Quote:
As we approach next weekend, a considerable number of ensemble solutions support the idea of an early autumn frontal system bringing wetting rains to the area. Uncertainty remains high at this stage, but we could be entertaining the idea of a significant weather pattern change soon.
This change has appeared consistently for the last several days for this period. It's extent and more precise timing will be clearer in another 3 days or so. This is exactly what we need. The amount of rain may be important.

jaysway, Slim
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gb
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 4:47 pm 
Although the system is still valid, unfortunately the system, which was initially forecast to go in around the Oregon border, is now supposed to go south along the coast and then stall and spin close enough to North-Central California to give them rainfall instead of us. We still get the cold air but very little moisture out of this. So, it proves once again, that Washington, very close to the Gulf of Alaska cannot seem to get summer rains much anymore. So strange. California gets summer rains and we don't. In BC they are doing OK with moisture. This should put a damper on California wildfires and may over time have effects also on Oregon, Blue Mountains, and Idaho wildfires. The Pasayten and Chelan got some rain yesterday and may get some more in this currently forecast pattern.

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dixon
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 5:15 pm 
gb wrote:
The GFS model
Does anyone put much faith into the GFS these days? The Euro has been proven superior time and again. See Cliff Mass research for further details.

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treeswarper
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 6:34 pm 
We have had a couple of little showers go through today. It looks like more are possible.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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thunderhead
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 7:02 pm 
dixon wrote:
gb wrote:
The GFS model
Does anyone put much faith into the GFS these days? The Euro has been proven superior time and again. See Cliff Mass research for further details.
The euro is slightly superior at long range. For some short range variables i would say the GFS is a bit better(especially here in the US to which the GFS has been tuned and the euro has not). A wise man looks at both. The average of these models is even better than either by itself.

dixon
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thunderhead
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 7:07 pm 
And of course in the short range there are models clearly superior to both of the above. HRRR is the clear winner if you are looking at something tomorrow. UW wrf is better at local topography than the global models, by far. Alas, you dont get out more than a couple days with this crop.

dixon
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Nancyann
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 7:25 pm 
It did rain today in the Sky Valley and also up the Mountain Loop Highway, where the brush was soaking wet.

Anne Elk, SpookyKite89, Cyclopath
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