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kbatku
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kbatku
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PostWed Sep 14, 2022 6:27 pm 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/14/typhoon-merbak-alaska-california-storm/ Some computer models indicate a broad 2 to 4 inches of rain falling across Northern California early next week. While itís too early to pin down exactly who will see rain and how much, that could be welcome news for those dealing with wildfires. The Mosquito Fire, in the mountains about an hourís drive northeast of Sacramento, has burned 58,544 acres and is only 20 percent contained. They say NpoCal but hopefully some will drift this way

Cyclopath, rossb
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philfort
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PostWed Sep 14, 2022 6:40 pm 
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A weather system heads toward California through Sunday. Western Washington will see a chance for some precip in the southerly flow aloft, but it doesn`t look particularly organized or interesting. As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday or next week, sunnier skies and warmer temps are a pretty good bet. The high temp forecast is for lower to mid 70s for the lowlands by the middle of next week. 19

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kbatku
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kbatku
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PostWed Sep 14, 2022 7:59 pm 
Boo hiss California is stealing our water!

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Pyrites
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PostWed Sep 14, 2022 8:05 pm 
They need it.

Keep Calm and Carry On? Heck No. Stay Excited and Get Outside!

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Sculpin
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 7:47 am 
Here is the write-up from the Bay Area NWS, crack for us weather geeks! "Potential is there for an anomalous September rain event setting up for late in the weekend and early next week (current focus Sun-Mon) with a low pressure system arriving from Alaska. It`s a very early season mid-latitude dynamic weather system that we`re watching. September is climatologically the third driest month of the year, thus forecast rain amounts on the order of a few tenths of an inch to 1 inch (locally 1-2 inches hills/mtns) compared to 30 year Sep normals may easily reach ~ 800% of normal in a lot of areas to more locally near 1,000%+ Sep normals in the North Bay. What is highly unusual about this particular pattern is the lack of connection to the eastern Tropical Pacific since if we`re going to get rain/showers in September typically there`s some moisture connection or origin to the eastern Tropical Pacific since it`s only late astronomical summer and it`s too early for the larger scale southern shift in westerlies. But, this system is breaking through. It may have a hint of western Pacific moisture to it, but when it arrives here it`s largely a mid-latitude dynamic weather system with no tap to the eastern Tropical Pacific. Briefly summarizing: NW arriving systems typically are a bit moisture starved. GFS/ECMWF trends for Sat night/Sunday arrival have strengthened and closed the 500 mb height low, but have also shown the low will be initially displaced farther west to start, some cross-isobaric wind flow with continental influence i.e. drying or downsloping likely, thus easing at least initial concern for localized flooding, plus it`s 1st season rain and the terrain can handle some rain without significant run-off. During early-mid next week focus will still be if/how rain band(s) interact with the coastal terrain, i.e. North Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, possibly East Bay hills/mtns and Big Sur Coast."

Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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Stefan
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 10:49 am 
I don't see anything significant hitting California on the UW WRF-GFS forecast model. I see some rain. I don't see anything significant.

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thunderhead
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 11:23 am 
The UW 12km GFS initialized run shows 1-2 inches of rain across northern California, in good agreement with all other models. You have to look beyond 84 hours though, as the storm is just arriving at hr 84.

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Stefan-K
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PostThu Sep 15, 2022 2:32 pm 
I wish... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ as of now looks significantly above normal temps and below normal precip for the most part frown.gif

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Sculpin
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PostFri Sep 16, 2022 9:10 am 
Not much uncertainty left at this point... NWS forecast discussion for the North Bay, fresh this morning: "A change in the weather pattern is underway as a deep, closed low is on track to move south from the Gulf of Alaska and park itself off the NorCal coast. This anomalous low will bring cool temperatures with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s to the region starting Saturday and lasting through midweek. Gusty winds are also likely ahead of this incoming low on Saturday. But more excitingly, there continues to be high confidence that this system will bring rain to much of the Bay Area as this system will provide a continuous stream of moisture-rich air (with PWATs over an inch) through midweek. This beneficial rain is still expected to arrive to the North Bay as early as Saturday evening and will continue trekking south to the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast by Sunday night into Monday morning. Expected rainfall totals have not changed much, with the majority of rain expected over the North Bay which is expected to 1 to 3 inches of rain total beginning Saturday evening through Tuesday evening."

Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir

kbatku
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