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philfort
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Joined: 02 Sep 2003
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Location: seattle |
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philfort
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 Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:00 pm |
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Looks like it's the temperature it feels like with wind/humidity. The top two rows are Max/Min.
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Eric Hansen
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Joined: 23 Mar 2015
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Location: Wisconsin |
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Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist
Joined: 07 Sep 2018
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Location: Seattle |
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Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist
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Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:26 pm |
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"There are yahoos out there. It’s why we can’t have nice things." - Tom Mahood
 marta
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6310 | TRs | Pics
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gb
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:29 am |
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Change is not yet in the bag. NWS Discussion this morning:
| Quote: | | LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A very weak frontal system
will bring back onshore flow by Monday, but it will not be enough
to overcome the ridge still in the vicinity. Cooler temperatures
will be the main result. High pressure rebuilds just offshore by
midweek, keeping the storm track well to the north. More time is
needed for the details to resolve themselves, but there are
indications at this time that the ridge will flatten and move
south, allowing for the first, more meaningful front to arrive
next weekend. It is yet to be determined if this will keep the
doors open for a more fall-like pattern to be established. |
We can hope for the best but hope so far has not been of much value. Sure hope we don't get more fire starts the next several days. Washington for the first time in October is having what in California has been called "Santa
Ana winds". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_winds
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jaysway
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jaysway
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:17 am |
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Echoing gb, the earlier forecast for rain the following weekend is not looking certain. The GFS is trending towards less precipitation although the Euro is still showing more storms. I'm resharing the images below from a local OpenSummit forecast.
GFS
Euro
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marta
wildflower maven
Joined: 07 May 2003
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marta
wildflower maven
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:33 pm |
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I follow a weather blog on OVS (Orchard and Vineyard Supply) located in Oregon. Rufus does a forecast twice a week for farmers in the PNW including Northern California. Today's was depressing.
| Quote: | | As you’ll recall, models solutions have, for the past 7-10 days, suggested that RAIN would arrive by the weekend of Oct 22,23. Current model runs are now trending away from that solution. A cold system may still drop in from the NW on the 22nd - but not down over the bulk of the PNW; instead it will skirt across interior BC, missing Abbotsford, Vancouver Is., and the rest of the PNW. Drat. Clouds & showers could clip northern Vancouver Island by Mon night, Oct 24 and continue a few days thereafter. Generally, though, it will cool down a few degrees.
We may have to wait until the 28th for rain to reach western WA (skipping nearly all of OR & ID), as models keep the very dominate, blocking High pressure ridge in place over most of the PNW through at least Halloween. Now, that’s scary for water resource managers. |
OVS WX Cafe forecast Oct 14
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philfort
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philfort
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:08 pm |
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Everyone's least favorite weather blogger is still predicting "2-4 inches in the Cascades" by the morning of Monday the 24th. The battle is on...
 marta, Anne Elk
marta, Anne Elk |
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altasnob
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Joined: 29 Aug 2007
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Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:13 am |
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| philfort wrote: | | Everyone's least favorite weather blogger is still predicting "2-4 inches in the Cascades" by the morning of Monday the 24th. The battle is on... |
As a voracious reader of Cliff Mass, he's always saying how much more superior the European model is than the American GFS, particularly in the 3-14 day range. The European model is still saying copious amounts of rain in the next ten days. The GFS is starting to show rain as well.
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rossb
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rossb
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Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:06 pm |
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As of today, the weather discussion page for the area has increasing confidence of decent levels of rain by this weekend (https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html). I really like this website, as they let you know what they are thinking. Often times they are reluctant to update the official forecast, for fear of going back and forth, even though they have lost all confidence in a previous forecast. In this case, it has finally appeared in their time range, and as they mention, the models are starting to agree on the idea of significant rain.
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gb
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Joined: 01 Jul 2010
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gb
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Mon Oct 17, 2022 8:04 am |
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| altasnob wrote: | | philfort wrote: | | Everyone's least favorite weather blogger is still predicting "2-4 inches in the Cascades" by the morning of Monday the 24th. The battle is on... |
As a voracious reader of Cliff Mass, he's always saying how much more superior the European model is than the American GFS, particularly in the 3-14 day range. The European model is still saying copious amounts of rain in the next ten days. The GFS is starting to show rain as well. |
You should be a "voracious reader" of other more objective information as well. The GFS was bang on this summer with occasional outliers, and forecast early summer drying much better than the ECMWF. However, the ECMWF was superior to the GFS in late spring/early summer while our weather was still wet. The ECMWF stayed with wetter long term solutions in that time period, whereas the GFS kept predicting an end to the wet spring. The GFS won out during summer and early fall, however, with far better longer term forecasts, albeit often overstating extended period upper atmosphere 500mb heights.
Hopefully the "optimistic" ECMWF precipitation modeling for the near term will come to pass and significant rains will in fact come and hopefully remain for a while.
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thunderhead
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Joined: 14 Oct 2015
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Well... here it comes. Long range models are in good agreement for a large amount of rain starting saturday and continuing through next week.
Now to start doing the old snow dance.
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Sculpin
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Joined: 23 Apr 2015
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Sculpin
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Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:21 am |
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| gb wrote: | | You should be a "voracious reader" of other more objective information as well. The GFS was bang on this summer... |
When Cliff Mass posts on weather model skill, he invariably shows graphical depictions of the points he is making, so that we are free to make our own judgements. He recently did that to show how much more skillful the European model was in forecasting the track of Hurricane Ian, but you no doubt missed that post.
What do you have to show us to back up these memories from last spring and summer?
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
Between every two pines is a doorway to the new world. - John Muir
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philfort
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Joined: 02 Sep 2003
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philfort
Member
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Mon Oct 17, 2022 10:15 am |
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Top ten lowest daily flow rates for the Middle Fork Snoqualmie (near Tanner) since Feb 1 1961:
| Code: | | USGS 12141300 2022-10-16 86.8 P
USGS 12141300 2022-10-15 89.1 P
USGS 12141300 2015-08-28 90.5 A
USGS 12141300 2022-10-14 90.5 P
USGS 12141300 1987-10-29 91 A
USGS 12141300 1987-10-30 91 A
USGS 12141300 2015-08-27 91.4 A
USGS 12141300 2015-08-26 92.3 A
USGS 12141300 2022-10-13 92.4 P
USGS 12141300 1987-10-24 93 A |
(with 5 more days to come before the rain, I suspect 9/10 of these spots will be from now by the end of the week)
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zimmertr
TJ Zimmerman
Joined: 24 Jun 2018
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Location: Issaquah |
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zimmertr
TJ Zimmerman
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Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:05 pm |
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altasnob
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Joined: 29 Aug 2007
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Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:27 pm |
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I wonder if we will get flash flooding like the desert SW gets. Only reason we normally don't is our ground is normally saturated before heavy rain.
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