Forum Index > Trail Talk > Can't buy me rain - record dry September?
 Reply to topic
Previous :: Next Topic
Author Message
Snowshovel
Member
Member


Joined: 05 Apr 2021
Posts: 156 | TRs | Pics
Snowshovel
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 11:35 am 
Whatís your logic behind that question? Saturated ground is more likely to shed water.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
zimmertr
TJ Zimmerman



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Posts: 783 | TRs | Pics
Location: Newcastle
zimmertr
TJ Zimmerman
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 11:39 am 
Snowshovel wrote:
Whatís your logic behind that question? Saturated ground is more likely to shed water.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
domaz
Member
Member


Joined: 24 Jun 2006
Posts: 90 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma
domaz
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 11:46 am 
We have a lot more infrastructure to handle flooding in general than the Southwest though. Storm water retention basins etc. Our rain doesn't usually fall extremely quickly either.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Snowshovel
Member
Member


Joined: 05 Apr 2021
Posts: 156 | TRs | Pics
Snowshovel
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 11:46 am 
Is that showing soil saturation or a healthy versus drought hibernating lawn?

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
altasnob
Member
Member


Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 996 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma
altasnob
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 11:52 am 
domaz wrote:
We have a lot more infrastructure to handle flooding in general than the Southwest though. Storm water retention basins etc. Our rain doesn't usually fall extremely quickly either.
Here's what Tacoma looked like after a heavy October rainstorm in 2015
A lady died in Madison Valley, Seattle due to a flash flood in 2006 https://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Flash-flood-killed-Madison-Valley-woman-1222545.php

Navy salad
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Snowshovel
Member
Member


Joined: 05 Apr 2021
Posts: 156 | TRs | Pics
Snowshovel
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 12:02 pm 
Urban flooding is different than flash flooding

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6006 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 12:07 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
Well... here it comes. Long range models are in good agreement for a large amount of rain starting saturday and continuing through next week. Now to start doing the old snow dance.
I'll settle for a rain dance right now. wink.gif

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6006 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 12:09 pm 
Sculpin wrote:
gb wrote:
You should be a "voracious reader" of other more objective information as well. The GFS was bang on this summer...
When Cliff Mass posts on weather model skill, he invariably shows graphical depictions of the points he is making, so that we are free to make our own judgements. He recently did that to show how much more skillful the European model was in forecasting the track of Hurricane Ian, but you no doubt missed that post. What do you have to show us to back up these memories from last spring and summer?
I have a very good memory. You should test yours. But you could look up some of my several weather posts in extreme situations where I mentioned differences in models or you could go to archived NWS Forecast Discussions and read most of the same things re: models. The most recent such discussions were just 3-5 days ago. Are you capable of googling?

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
altasnob
Member
Member


Joined: 29 Aug 2007
Posts: 996 | TRs | Pics
Location: Tacoma
altasnob
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 12:13 pm 
Snowshovel wrote:
Urban flooding is different than flash flooding
How so? Sure, in an urban setting there are lots of impervious surfaces that remain impervious year round. But there are also lots of lawns and parks and open spaces that will rapidly shed more water when the soil is super dry like it is right now.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Snowshovel
Member
Member


Joined: 05 Apr 2021
Posts: 156 | TRs | Pics
Snowshovel
Member
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 12:38 pm 
Around here, urban flooding seems related largely to construction or lack of maintenance

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist



Joined: 07 Sep 2018
Posts: 1992 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle
Anne Elk
BrontosaurusTheorist
PostMon Oct 17, 2022 1:23 pm 
In reference to zimmertr's post above showing different absorption rates for 3 different lawn conditions,
Snowshovel wrote:
Is that showing soil saturation or a healthy versus drought hibernating lawn?
That's demonstrating the extreme hydrophobia of completely dried out soils, as altasnob makes reference to a few posts later. You can test this out at your own home if there's an area (like under wide roof overhangs or under an open stairway that you don't normally water and is almost fully sheltered from rain in the winter. I have some of that; the soil is so dessicated and devoid of humus-making material that when I do spritz water under there, it just runs right off.

"There are yahoos out there. Itís why we canít have nice things." - Tom Mahood
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6006 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostTue Oct 18, 2022 6:02 am 
My rain dance is working for sure! NWS Seattle Discussion this am:
Quote:
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Still on track for the start of fall weather Friday as a frontal system moves down the British Columbia coast into the area later in the day. The system is looking wetter with each of the last few runs. It's possible that Seattle will get more rain in the 18 hour period between 18z Friday and 12z Saturday than Seattle has received since July 4th ( 0.40 inches ). Cool upper level trough moving in behind the front Saturday with snow levels lowering down to around 4000 feet. Two to four inches of snow possible on Mount Baker and Mount Rainier. Brief bit of drying Sunday with just a chance of showers before the next system following the same path as the system on Friday arrives later Sunday. Snow levels only rise slightly ahead and with this system for another round of snow in the higher elevations and rain in the lowlands. Most places in the lowlands are looking at an inch to an inch and a half of rain between Friday afternoon and Monday evening. Higher amounts along the coast with the mountains getting 2 to 3 and a half inches.

RichP
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
rossb
Member
Member


Joined: 23 Sep 2002
Posts: 1601 | TRs | Pics
rossb
Member
PostTue Oct 18, 2022 6:49 am 
Snowshovel wrote:
Around here, urban flooding seems related largely to construction or lack of maintenance
There are a lot of things that can cause urban flooding. One of the more common is clogged drains. This happens a lot in the fall. Clearing the drains can help a lot. Like you mentioned, new construction can cause problems as well. I could see how lots of dry lawns could cause problems, especially in areas with lots of lawns (suburban flooding?). Park land is similar, although mowed fields are usually flat (for sports like baseball and football). You might get some flooding off of a place like Woodland Park. That being said, for the major urban areas, I'm not too worried. This does not look like that kind of storm. There is supposed to be plenty of moisture, but not all at once. By the time we get showers (which are more intense) the ground should be saturated. Maybe some place like North Bend might have some issues,but I think it will be fine. I will be most concerned about burned-out areas, especially close to major roads. It would not surprise me if Highway 2 is closed again, as the rain causes mud slides onto the highway.

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
gb
Member
Member


Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Posts: 6006 | TRs | Pics
gb
Member
PostWed Oct 19, 2022 9:51 am 
It is now close enough that the UW MM5 model shows rain amounts (far easier to understand), for 72 hours ending Saturday morning much of the area gets .5 to .75" in the first go round. Sunday's PM system looks to be more south, but Tuesday's promises rain again for the North Cascades.
The good is that this should finally end substantial fire threat, but accompanying snow also mean an end to favorable mountain hiking conditions save for some very late Indian Summer thingy.

RichP
Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
rossb
Member
Member


Joined: 23 Sep 2002
Posts: 1601 | TRs | Pics
rossb
Member
PostWed Oct 19, 2022 12:00 pm 
I'll take it. The snow won't be so deep that it really hurts hiking. Of course it won't be so deep that you can ski, except maybe a few high roads if they close them. I think the big challenge will be being available when the weather is sunny. We've certainly had our level of extremes this year. Our Spring was one of the coldest on record. Then the summer and fall have been hot and dry. It would be crazy if we suddenly turn to day after day of nothing but clouds and rain. If that happens, then yeah, the snow will be too deep for good hiking (and it will be time to break out the skis).

Back to top Reply to topic Reply with quote Send private message
   All times are GMT - 8 Hours
 Reply to topic
Forum Index > Trail Talk > Can't buy me rain - record dry September?
  Happy Birthday Otter, CampChamp, Wolfman!
Jump to:   
Search this topic:

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum