Forum Index > Trail Talk > Can't buy me rain - record dry September?
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philfort
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philfort
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PostWed Oct 19, 2022 12:07 pm 
An end to high elevation mushroom season (which never really got started) waah.gif

mosey, ejain
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostThu Oct 20, 2022 7:23 am 
Meanwhile, the outlook for The Other Side. I guess I better find the long pants. https://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2022/10/goodbye-smoke-hello-la-nina.html?fbclid=IwAR3G0f0XTtRj-rafrXvEEiCsHtk-WfnIlsIzLruC9uzSAu8SKmqXP6Z3i1w

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities

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altasnob
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altasnob
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PostTue Oct 25, 2022 5:13 am 
Quote:
by the end of the next few days, the annual precipitation for many Northwest locations will actually be above normal, even after the dry summer and early fall.
Quote:
The latest European Center forecast for accumulated precipitation for the next 10 days is stunningly wet, with over ten inches on the western slopes of some of our regional terrain
Quote:
Several feet [of snow] in the Cascades and much more over southern BC.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-atmospheric-spigot-is-on-and-will.html

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CC
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CC
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PostWed Oct 26, 2022 9:03 pm 
altasnob wrote:
Quote:
by the end of the next few days, the annual precipitation for many Northwest locations will actually be above normal, even after the dry summer and early fall.
What is he talking about? If he means the calendar year to date, which is what he plotted in his previous post, we have been above normal since early spring and are now approaching normal from above. If he means calendar year to Dec 31, we are still way below that (by about 15" in Seattle). If he means the 2022 water year, which ended on Sept 30, at Stevens we were above normal for year by June 10th. If he means current water year which started Oct 1, we are already well below normal (by about 6" at Stevens) and are unlikely tocatch up in a few days.

No matter how cynical you become, it's not enough to keep up. Jane Wagner/Lily Tomlin

Cyclopath, Anne Elk
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rossb
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PostThu Oct 27, 2022 9:08 am 
CC wrote:
altasnob wrote:
Quote:
by the end of the next few days, the annual precipitation for many Northwest locations will actually be above normal, even after the dry summer and early fall.
What is he talking about?
I think it is clear from the blog post. In both words and pictures, he is talking about the calendar year up until now. I find it interesting, as it shows a few things. Even though our summer and early autumn was very dry, we usually don't get that much rain then anyway. From a statistical standpoint, you can interpret this either way. If you look at that period, there is dramatic difference. I have no idea what the percentage is, but it has to extremely small (10% of the normal rain?). But when you back up, this incredibly dry summer and early fall just barely makes up for a somewhat wet Spring. Basically, at the start of summer we had about 25 inches of rain for the year, instead of the usual 20. Then we had practically nothing until mid-October, even though we usually have around 5 inches. It came very close to balancing out just as we entered this current wet period. More than anything, it has been a year of on or off. Back in the spring, a lot of folks here were wondering if the rain would ever stop. Then it did, for practically the entire summer and into early autumn. Then folks wondered if it would ever rain again, and clearly, it has. Now, I guess, the thing to hope for is little more variety -- not so extreme, please tongue.gif

Anne Elk
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neek
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neek
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PostThu Oct 27, 2022 9:18 am 
rossb wrote:
More than anything, it has been a year of on or off. Back in the spring, a lot of folks here were wondering if the rain would ever stop. Then it did, for practically the entire summer and into early autumn. Then folks wondered if it would ever rain again, and clearly, it has. Now, I guess, the thing to hope for is little more variety -- not so extreme, please tongue.gif
Seems like GFS and ECMWF have converged on 5' of new snow in parts of the North Cascades over the next 10 days. Can't complain about that!

rossb
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Snowshovel
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PostThu Oct 27, 2022 9:29 am 
5 feet? That’s a little hard to fathom

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Ski
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PostThu Oct 27, 2022 9:52 am 
correct. a fathom is six feet.

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."

rossb, BW, JonnyQuest  sarbar, Anne Elk
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philfort
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philfort
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PostThu Oct 27, 2022 10:06 am 
CC wrote:
altasnob wrote:
Quote:
by the end of the next few days, the annual precipitation for many Northwest locations will actually be above normal, even after the dry summer and early fall.
What is he talking about? If he means the calendar year to date, which is what he plotted in his previous post, we have been above normal since early spring and are now approaching normal from above.
According to a graph from his latest post, technically Seatac dropped below normal for like a day or two this month before the rains came.

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Chief Joseph
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Chief Joseph
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PostFri Oct 28, 2022 1:17 pm 
It rained buckets here last night and finally there is water in the well after two weeks. : twirl.gif chickenleg.gif party.gif party.gif banana.gif One doesn't realize just how FOS we are until we can't flush the toilet... Hot shower here I come!

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.

runup, zimmertr, philfort
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altasnob
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PostSun Nov 13, 2022 8:08 am 
From the NWS:
Quote:
Extended dry spells in November in Seattle....they're not common. The longest period with no measurable rainfall in Seattle in November was 13 days back in 2000. With no measurable rain expected in the next week, we could make a run at equaling that mark.
https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1591520495241158657?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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Ski
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PostSun Nov 13, 2022 8:23 am 
You mean I might actually get a chance to finish out this wall before year's end?

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach. I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
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altasnob
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altasnob
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PostMon Nov 14, 2022 8:31 am 
Cliff Mass chimes in. Rain returns on Sunday: A Very Dry Week When It Should Be Wet

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sarbar
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sarbar
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PostMon Nov 14, 2022 8:36 am 
Chief Joseph wrote:
It rained buckets here last night and finally there is water in the well after two weeks. : twirl.gif chickenleg.gif party.gif party.gif banana.gif One doesn't realize just how FOS we are until we can't flush the toilet...
How shallow is your well? Is it a cachement well? I lived on one of those at Deception Pass as a teen. We were not warned by the landlord it'd dry up. Had no water at all for 6 weeks that first year.

https://trailcooking.com/ Eat well on the trail.
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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostTue Nov 15, 2022 9:37 am 
What a rainy season this has been. I need to water my garden.

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