[Bruce Albert]

[altasnob]

[gb]

[gb]

From the NWS Seattle Discussion this morning:

[Cyclopath]

[Bruce Albert]

Another relevant anecdotal factoid: Each year our state and federal permits for in-water work for repair of armored bank - in years that we have them - carry an approximate mid-October expiration date because by that date water levels will have risen enough to permit unobstructed upstream travel for fish seeking to spawn. Those dates, set in advance, have tended to reflect stream flows pretty accurately. We'll soon see how that plays out in 2022.

[Pyrites]

Not rain, but fog. Yesterday at Lacey was the first of what I’ve always called late September Puget Sound fogs. Today was the first morning with a real drip coming of my Doug fir from fog.

[Snowshovel]

The reoccurring Mr Muss joke is so fun fun

[thunderhead]

No significant rain until at least the 15th according to all models. Thats pretty crazy.

[Anne Elk]

I just saw this thread today. If I'm understanding this discussion correctly, people are trying to suss out whether our weather pattern in recent years (especially this year) is substantially different enough to be a climate change effect or just part of the normal statistical variation.

[treeswarper]

And, in the other part, which is also Warshington, I have my anecdotal weather records. Growing up here, we usually had a killing frost by mid September. That certainly is not the case this year. I'm still watering, still growing tomatoes, and flowers are still blooming. It's very strange. I try to enjoy it but the worry that this weather pattern might become common ruins that. For west side weather? At least in the So. Cascades, it was usual to get a soaking rain in September only to then get east winds, which dried things out again. Fire people, who were not experienced with our weather, would start torching off clearcuts after that rain and then would be fighting those fires later when the east winds began. Sept. and Oct. are/were east wind months in that area. Back to this warm Fall weather, the Scandihoovian part of my brain says, "We'll pay for it later." Which means the feeling that we will get ten feet of snow and below zero temps with a nasty north wind blowing whilst having to trudge uphill both ways to go forage for groceries in January.

[gb]

I have no idea what will happen later this winter except through persistence of recent years data and the probabilities given a La Nina. This thread was never about what effect climate change is having although Altasnob got defensive and introduced some of Muss's "works". The thread was and is still unfortunately about how difficult it has been and currently is to get any significant rain this late summer and now fall. It sucks and we live in perpetual smoke. Worse yet, very few berries most places - almost none in the Quinault area... But this is from NWS Discussion this morning as I read the Discussion each day looking for hints and learning to better use weather models for my own trip planning purposes.

[Sculpin]

[altasnob]

Well said Sculpin. The only reason I brought in Cliff Mass is because the major point he makes repeatedly is there is natural variation to our weather. There will be times where we get more rain or less rain, warmer temps or colder temps, and that has no effect or bearing on the next season's weather. This is not a denial of climate change, which involves long term trends. There's also ying and yang to weather patterns. We've been abnormally dry and our plants are wilting. But the Colorado River shed has had a wetter than normal monsoon season (which is because of the persistent blocking high pressure that is keeping us so dry). They need the water more than we do.

[Gil]

Anecdotally, I have been taking annual fall foliage trips in the Cascades for the past 17 years. Early on, weather was a significant factor -- one memorable trip up the Necklace Valley, down the Middle Fork and up the back way to Alpental involved five straight days of snow and rain in mid-September (that's the trip I met Mr. Tom Davenport in Goldmyer Hot Springs). Other early trips were also weather challenged. For the past 10 years though, i've hardly had to think about the weather -- except this year, when it was so dang hot and dry.