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Mountainfisherman Member
Joined: 26 May 2010 Posts: 122 | TRs | Pics
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So your argument is that you're an elitist outdoorsman and the rest of you that aren't stay home.
Attractive.
Joseph
Joseph
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Worthington Member
Joined: 23 Jun 2021 Posts: 80 | TRs | Pics
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For people who think there already is a small population of Grizzly bears breeding in Washington, and has been for the last few years or more:
Why have no people photographed one? (everyone has a camera with them at all times for the past decade)
Why has no physical evidence (hair/bone/roadkill) been confirmed?
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It wouldn’t at all shock me if such evidence were to be found eventually, but based on the evidence we have now (and the popularity of backcountry users with cameras and the web) I’m surprised how many people think it’s more likely than not to conclude that we already have a few of these 600lb apex predators walking around and they just never get observed. Reminds me of the Mitch Hedberg joke: “maybe Bigfoot IS blurry…”
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Snowshovel Member
Joined: 05 Apr 2021 Posts: 256 | TRs | Pics
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Mountainfisherman wrote: | So your argument is that you're an elitist outdoorsman and the rest of you that aren't stay home.
Attractive. |
That makes no sense
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Snowshovel Member
Joined: 05 Apr 2021 Posts: 256 | TRs | Pics
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Worthington wrote: | For people who think there already is a small population of Grizzly bears breeding in Washington, and has been for the last few years or more:
Why have no people photographed one? (everyone has a camera with them at all times for the past decade)
Why has no physical evidence (hair/bone/roadkill) been confirmed?
——-
It wouldn’t at all shock me if such evidence were to be found eventually, but based on the evidence we have now (and the popularity of backcountry users with cameras and the web) I’m surprised how many people think it’s more likely than not to conclude that we already have a few of these 600lb apex predators walking around and they just never get observed. Reminds me of the Mitch Hedberg joke: “maybe Bigfoot IS blurry…” |
Exactly. And the effort put in so far is very substantial.
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timberghost Member
Joined: 06 Dec 2011 Posts: 1324 | TRs | Pics
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Snowshovel Member
Joined: 05 Apr 2021 Posts: 256 | TRs | Pics
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What are you questioning?
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Bruce Albert Member
Joined: 01 Sep 2007 Posts: 160 | TRs | Pics
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Worthington wrote: | For people who think there already is a small population of Grizzly bears breeding in Washington, and has been for the last few years or more:
Why have no people photographed one? (everyone has a camera with them at all times for the past decade)
Why has no physical evidence (hair/bone/roadkill) been confirmed? |
Well, I didn't take a photo because the bear was too far away for a useful shot. But we did have a good long look through binocs and one of us had 20 years mining exploration in AK with mucho bear encounters. I trusted his judgement on species ID and still do. This was near Benchmark Mountain about 35 years ago.
A scarcity of sightings of a species does not conflate with their absence. In sixty-plus active and reasonably observant years in the Cascades I have seen, for example, exactly two Cougars...a similarly controversial species whose population is widely accepted to be on the increase and a possible if rare threat to humans. One was dead on US2 at Eagle Falls and the other was crossing the highway at Scenic. Go figure. (OTOH over time I sense that quite a few Cougars have seen me and passed on the opportunity...)
With respect to debates above about the statistical rarity of fatal human/bear encounters I submit that if one is going to make decisions based on such statistics they have an obligation to realize and accept that they could be on the unlucky side of the numbers. For example, the fact that air travel is overwhelmingly safe according to the numbers is of absolutely no value or comfort to the unlucky few plummeting earthward in one of the rare mishaps. So it is with large carnivores: one in a thousand, one in a million, one in a brazillion...a statistical probability of close to zero is not the same as zero itself; sooner or later some unlucky soul's going down. Got to have that possibility realized and accepted when you head out.
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Snowshovel Member
Joined: 05 Apr 2021 Posts: 256 | TRs | Pics
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Bruce Albert wrote: | (OTOH over time I sense that quite a few Cougars have seen me and passed on the opportunity...) |
At the Index Tavern?
Secret Agent Man, Waterman
Secret Agent Man, Waterman
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Snowshovel Member
Joined: 05 Apr 2021 Posts: 256 | TRs | Pics
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Bruce Albert wrote: | Well, I didn't take a photo because the bear was too far away for a useful shot. But we did have a good long look through binocs and one of us had 20 years mining exploration in AK with mucho bear encounters. I trusted his judgement on species ID and still do. This was near Benchmark Mountain about 35 years ago.
A scarcity of sightings of a species does not conflate with their absence. In sixty-plus active and reasonably observant years in the Cascades I have seen, for example, exactly two Cougars...a similarly controversial species whose population is widely accepted to be on the increase and a possible if rare threat to humans. One was dead on US2 at Eagle Falls and the other was crossing the highway at Scenic. Go figure. |
I’ve never seen a cougar, and my forester friend has seen only one. But the difference is that physical evidence such as hair and camera trap photos are many. And it seems like there is exactly zero hair and camera trap photos of grizzlies. And hundreds of hair traps and thousands of game cameras have been set in the last forty years.
Worthington, Secret Agent Man
Worthington, Secret Agent Man
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9512 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:48 pm
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Bruce Albert wrote: | So it is with large carnivores: one in a thousand, one in a million, one in a brazillion...a statistical probability of close to zero is not the same as zero itself; sooner or later some unlucky soul's going down. Got to have that possibility realized and accepted when you head out. |
This is standard inability to understand how to apply probability to everyday activities argument. Yes we absolutely must recognize the risk posed by bears, while 100% ignoring the risk posed other activities that regularly kill far far more people.
The air travel argument is classic of this type of misguided thinking. Driving to a destination ( say Los Angeles) far more dangerous than flying to the same location, but some people perceive the risk as higher because when an airplane crashes it occupies the media landscape for a couple days, but there isn't much media coverage of people dying in motor vehicle collisions.
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Ski ><((((°>
Joined: 28 May 2005 Posts: 12829 | TRs | Pics Location: tacoma |
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Ski
><((((°>
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:20 pm
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Bruce Albert wrote: | A scarcity of sightings of a species does not conflate with their absence. |
I cannot argue with that point.
The rest of the statement, however, just doesn't pass the sniff test.
I've seen exactly two cougars in the wild - both of them sitting in the road (go figure.)
But unlike grizzly bears, I've seen all kinds of cougar tracks along the edges of gravel bars - that "physical evidence" thing.
All the anecdote in the galaxy doesn't tally up to fact. It's still anecdote.
Secret Agent Man wrote: | But “they’re already here” or “let them reintegrate themselves” are not reasonable. |
By what metric are those arguments not reasonable?
The "pro bear" side of the argument is based in "let nature be nature", is it not?
How is simply allowing the bears to enter as they please (as was the case with the Gray Wolf's repatriation into Washington State) anything other than allowing nature to be nature?
Explain.
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
Joseph
"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each."
Joseph
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Joseph Joseph
Joined: 13 Jun 2018 Posts: 260 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle |
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Joseph
Joseph
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:10 pm
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Randito wrote: | Just as adding a miniscule additional risk to an activity that already carries considerable risk is not a rational argument against something. |
You don't know that the risk would be miniscule - that's an assumption on your part which I reject. You cannot preclude the possibility that in the aftermath of reintroduction, parts of the N.cascades will be more dangerous than before. If you want to hike among the grizzlies, why not go to Montana, or Alaska?
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9512 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:34 pm
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Joseph wrote: | Randito wrote: | Just as adding a miniscule additional risk to an activity that already carries considerable risk is not a rational argument against something. |
You don't know that the risk would be miniscule - that's an assumption on your part which I reject. You cannot preclude the possibility that in the aftermath of reintroduction, parts of the N.cascades will be more dangerous than before. If you want to hike among the grizzlies, why not go to Montana, or Alaska? |
What is the basis for your belief that the risk of Grizzly bear attack will be higher than it is MT where the incidence of attacks is quite small. 11 attacks in 50 years
Far larger numbers of people die or are maimed by falls and other ordinary mishaps in the mountains.
Is it the possiblity of being eaten after you are dead that has your knickers in a twist?
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Bernardo Member
Joined: 08 Feb 2010 Posts: 2174 | TRs | Pics Location: out and about in the world |
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Bernardo
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 pm
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Does anyone have any idea how dangerous grizzlies are relative to black bears?
The stats indicate each of the species kills about one person per year in the lower 48.
Fatal Bear Attacks in North America
Also, there are about 500,000 black bears and 1,500 grizzlies.
Does that make grizzlies about 330 times more dangerous than a black bears?
If each black bear has ten encounters with a human being per year, then the odds of a being in a fatal incident per encounter are 1 in 5 million.
Applying the same encounter rate for grizzlies, the odds of your being killed in an encounter are 1 in 15,000.
No wonder no one here seems have been in a fatal attack, who has had 15,000 grizzly encounters? (Math humor!)
I wouldn’t be surprised if both types of bears have more than 10 encounters with humans on average per year making the risk ratios even lower. Also, it’s possible black bears have more encounters on average than grizzlies thus making them even more benign relative to grizzlies.
How many encounters with a human per year would a grizzly in the North Cascades have? If we had an estimate for the number of encounters per year and the risk per encounter we could estimate the carnage.
These are all arm chair numbers. It would be great if someone did some rigorous studies and made an evidence-based estimate for the human lives that would be lost due to reintroduction.
Joseph
Joseph
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9512 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:29 pm
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The numbers in BC are a good guide.
A report from 2019
Quote: | More than 3,800 calls have been placed to B.C.’s RAPP line for black bear conflicts since April. That’s compared to the seasonal average of 2,400. A further 180 calls were for grizzly bear conflicts. |
So in BC , which is a fairly similar environment to the North Cascades black bear run ins are 20x more common than run ins with Griz.
Since 1970 there have been 19 black bear attacks in Washington -- so if Grizz do come back to the North Cascades , we might expect 2 Grizz attacks over the next century.
ETA: Only 1 of the 19 black bear attacks since 1970 has been fatal in Washington.
In 6 decades of venturing into the Cascades and Olympics I've observed black bears 4 times. I've had a black bear steal food once, but that was in the 60's when we had no clue about how to properly hang food.
In Denali Park, I once had the privilege of observing a sow Grizz with two cubs playing on a snowbank at a range of about 80 yards for about 45 minutes before another shuttle bus came rumbling along and spooked them and they ran off into the brush.
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