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vogtski Member
Joined: 03 Dec 2022 Posts: 47 | TRs | Pics Location: Waitgate WA |
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vogtski
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Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:04 am
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ranger rock wrote: | Is walk in access allowed when the entrance roads are closed? |
No problem on the unplowed Mowich, White River & Ohana entrances; probably get you a ticket or ambulance ride on the plowed, but closed Paradise road.
"Paradise is accessible by foot when the road is closed by using the existing trail system. The Wonderland Trail connects Longmire to Narada Falls and the unplowed Paradise Valley Road. Consider this to be a true wilderness outing, as it requires trail-breaking, navigating avalanche terrain, fording icy rivers, and camping overnight. It is critical to have a high level of skill with winter terrain and navigation.
"Do not walk or ski in the roadway—use the trails. Use caution when crossing the road. Vehicles, including snowplows, could be present at any time and cannot stop quickly in winter conditions."
https://www.nps.gov/mora/planyourvisit/paradise-winter-access-faq.htm
Trail details: https://www.nwhikers.net/forums/viewtopic.php?t=8036588
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
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peter707 Member
Joined: 16 Jun 2022 Posts: 136 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle, WA |
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peter707
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Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:34 pm
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I decided to find out how many days the gate to Paradise was open so far this winter. I will use the timeframe "October 21 - April 1". First, I am looking at self-reported road status. Later, I'll look at some digital footprints, and try to confirm the status of the unknown days (and verify that it was really open).
It would also be possible to look at the paradise snow-tel data https://snoflo.org/report/snow/washington/paradise/ and the nwac forcast for that day, to gain a larger understanding of the factors explaining the closure on a given day, but I'll leave that for someone with a better understanding of snow conditions.
I have 6 possible outcomes - Unknown, Open, OpenLate (tweet after 9:25am), AccessChangeWeekdayClosure, Closed, and LastMinuteClosed.
Results:
Total=162
AccessChangeWeekdayClosure=88
LastMinuteClosed=3
Closed=20
OpenLate=14
Open=37
Out of the 162 winter-season days, the road was open on time 23% of the time, with another 9% of the time opening late.
Out of the 74 potential opening days, the road was open 50% of the time, with another 19% of the time opening late. 27% closed, and 4% last-minute-closure.
Data:
October 21, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1583587662010601472?cxt=HHwWgMCqjdSlhPorAAAA
October 22, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1583895397855920129?cxt=HHwWgoCg6Z6ekPsrAAAA
October 23, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1584220433858981889?cxt=HHwWgsCj4emFpPwrAAAA
October 24, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1584577163587899392?cxt=HHwWgMDSrZ2ixv0rAAAA
October 25, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1584913766952861696?cxt=HHwWgIDQ7Y-r3_4rAAAA
October 26, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1585284770098880515?cxt=HHwWhoCl2ayGiIAsAAAA
October 27, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1585663935553818629?cxt=HHwWisCqvde8tIEsAAAA
October 28, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1586023504448626688?cxt=HHwWgIClwaz-14IsAAAA
October 29, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1586381685414801408?cxt=HHwWgMCt1Zzv-oMsAAAA
October 30, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1586743051086544896?cxt=HHwWgICq3byZn4UsAAAA
October 31, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1587105172311842817?cxt=HHwWgoCpjdrvw4YsAAAA
November 1, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1587474963732172803?cxt=HHwWhsCo8bKE7IcsAAAA
November 2, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1587861347852697600?cxt=HHwWgICq9fTem4ksAAAA
November 3, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1588193150958333952?cxt=HHwWgMCj2bLQsoosAAAA
November 4, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1588533751016869888?cxt=HHwWgMCi8fbBzYssAAAA
November 5, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1588934032972476416?cxt=HHwWgMDT7bPFg40sAAAA
November 6, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1589271852589121536?cxt=HHwWgIDQkYyVnY4sAAAA
November 7, 2022 - LastMinuteClosed- https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1589664831950704641?cxt=HHwWgsDSxcDvz48sAAAA
November 8, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1590035269629399040?cxt=HHwWgMDSqeip-JAsAAAA
November 9, 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1590395583432642561?cxt=HHwWgsDSreuWnJIsAAAA
November 10, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1590751180359360512?cxt=HHwWgIDT9abxvZMsAAAA
November 11, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1591110715376816128?cxt=HHwWgMDSxf-w4ZQsAAAA
November 12, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1591469177923342336?cxt=HHwWgMDU0aGyhJYsAAAA
November 13, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1591831859993911299?cxt=HHwWhoCx0ZGpqZcsAAAA
November 14, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1592227362619686912?cxt=HHwWgIDU6bWW3ZgsAAAA
November 15, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1592556524945420288?cxt=HHwWgMDRoZju8pksAAAA
November 16, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1592931499778580481?cxt=HHwWgoCpvcywnZssAAAA
November 17, 2022 - LastMinuteClosed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1593267679917244416?cxt=HHwWgICg2e2gtpwsAAAA
November 18, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1593623247068676096?cxt=HHwWgICqtcv5150sAAAA
November 19, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1593983484300734464?cxt=HHwWgMCt-ZPi-54sAAAA
November 20, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1594369510580289537?cxt=HHwWgoDQ7eunq6AsAAAA
November 21, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1594711993428373504?cxt=HHwWgMDT9fuGx6EsAAAA
November 22, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1595070615089983488?cxt=HHwWgMDRwb-R6qIsAAAA
November 23, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1595437138023260161?cxt=HHwWgoC9lfjnkKQsAAAA
November 24, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1595797229025038336?cxt=HHwWgMC4mf_HtKUsAAAA
November 25, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1596167382904754179?cxt=HHwWhsDSweTx3KYsAAAA
November 26, 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1596553852391927808?cxt=HHwWgMDRyaLRjKgsAAAA
November 27, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1596885190487728128?cxt=HHwWgIDT4deno6ksAAAA
November 28, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1597270735252525059?cxt=HHwWhsDUjazR0qosAAAA
November 29, 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1597608238308118528?cxt=HHwWgMC-6c2O7KssAAAA
All weekdays closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1597662038267813888?cxt=HHwWgICj4ZbKhKwsAAAA
closed x 3
December 3 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1599102983106502658?cxt=HHwWhICltZrsk7EsAAAA
December 4 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1599449699202658310?cxt=HHwWjMCj0d7BsbIsAAAA
closed x 5
December 10 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1601607139658981377?cxt=HHwWgoDT0abNhrosAAAA
December 11 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1601986542154977280?cxt=HHwWgMDUwbeRs7ssAAAA
closed x 5
December 17 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1604160496004993024?cxt=HHwWgMC88Znej8MsAAAA
December 18 2022 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1604528610794246145?cxt=HHwWgsC85aaRt8QsAAAA
closed x 5
December 24 2022 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1606682739830583297?cxt=HHwWgsDT5Y7ciswsAAAA
December 25 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1607061214399713281?cxt=HHwWgsDSiZ7qts0sAAAA
closed x 5
December 31 2022 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1609249649172299777?cxt=HHwWgoCy3fOBmtUsAAAA
January 1 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1609598872929566721?cxt=HHwWgoCwvbPpuNYsAAAA
closed x 5
January 7 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1611772883575140352?cxt=HHwWgMDTgb25ld4sAAAA
January 8 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1612149455675068418?cxt=HHwWhMDQ5e3YwN8sAAAA
closed x 5
January 14 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1614312404560625664
January 15 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1614670809079091200?cxt=HHwWgMDQxfiiu-gsAAAA
closed x 5
January 21 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1616848489157394434?cxt=HHwWhIDUvc3ImfAsAAAA
January 22 2023 - LastMinuteClosed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1617213624640065536?cxt=HHwWgMC-6aTOv_EsAAAA
closed x 5
January 28 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1619381932437168128?cxt=HHwWgIDT6bTSmfksAAAA
January 29 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1619744471402573825?cxt=HHwWgsDTzfrAvvosAAAA
closed x 5
February 4 2023 - Open* - no tweet, gpx track online, https://www.strava.com/activities/8510871091/segments/3057356060446697910
February 5 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1622292556041129991?cxt=HHwWjsC8yYCfxYMtAAAA
closed x 5
February 11 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1624455226252984323?cxt=HHwWhoCwpf3anIstAAAA
February 12 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1624809316262809602?cxt=HHwWhMC4ud3dvYwtAAAA
closed x 5
February 18 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1626993016962527235?cxt=HHwWhsC9wevhnpQtAAAA
February 19 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1627354656803536896?cxt=HHwWgIDSpYacw5UtAAAA
closed x 5
February 25 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1629527364354076672?cxt=HHwWgMDTgaOgn50tAAAA
February 26 2023 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1629864924183953408?cxt=HHwWgIDU3evguJ4tAAAA
closed x 5
March 4 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1632096181466824705?cxt=HHwWgoDQ-Y21r6YtAAAA
March 5 2023 - Open* - no tweet, gpx track online, https://www.strava.com/activities/8667305321#3075559002396188024
closed x 5
March 11 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1634608115504250880?cxt=HHwWgIDQ-fTapa8tAAAA
March 12 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1634939267335196672?cxt=HHwWgMDQrb6mvLAtAAAA
closed x 5
March 18 2023 - Open* - no tweet, gpx track online: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-camp-muir-route-via-skyline-trail-26b58a4
March 19 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1637477989125591041?cxt=HHwWgsDQ1cXjvrktAAAA
closed x 5
March 25 2023 - OpenLate - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1639670090827452416?cxt=HHwWgMDSidTQo8EtAAAA
March 26 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1640025255858307072?cxt=HHwWgIDU4f2RxcItAAAA
closed x 5
April 1 2023 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1642171291724664832?cxt=HHwWgMC--dqFlcotAAAA
April 2 2023 - Closed - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1642532792620974081?cxt=HHwWgoDUweq3ucstAAAA
closed x 5
April 8 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1644732796320219136?cxt=HHwWgIDQsfPwodMtAAAA
April 9 2023 - Open - https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1645095293472608257?cxt=HHwWgsDQ0YHdxtQtAAAA
Edit: I'll keep adding the days, then recalculate the summary statistics at the top at the end of the season.
Bruce Albert, vogtski
Bruce Albert, vogtski
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vogtski Member
Joined: 03 Dec 2022 Posts: 47 | TRs | Pics Location: Waitgate WA |
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vogtski
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Sat Apr 01, 2023 5:17 am
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Thanks for all that work, Peter!
I find it useful to separate your data into before and after weekday closure. Since the weekday closure was
instituted ~12% of the weekend days remained closed, ~26% of weekend openings were late, and 62% were on time.
In the forty days between the beginning of nightly closures at Longmire until the announcement of the weekend only schedule, 19 days (~47%) were closed, including two at the last minute; ~40% of days opened on time, ~12% late.
I'd expect early season opening to be easier due to higher snowlines and less snowpack. The gate is opened before the tweets are sent. Judging by the Longmire webcam, sometimes there is a delay tweeting if the ranger is interrupted by other business or just forgets. My old ski buddy 'Winter Raven' worked at the Longmire ski rental for years and claimed there were 'Stealth Openings' where the gate was open but the tweet was 'closed' a couple times each winter...
Back in the 90's, I used to figure about one hour delay past 8AM (the gate opening time then) for every six inches of new snow at Paradise. This has steadily deteriorated to about one hour for each three inches of new. The number of closed days averaged about 25-30 per winter then and has been steadily increasing since.
The real comparison is that in the four months since the weekday closure only 25% of winter days have been open, even tho the webcams show Paradise plowed about 5 days out of 7.
Hurricane Ridge, with far fewer staff, tries to open Friday-Sunday in the winter, so Rainier management strikes me as more reluctant than shorthanded.
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
Bruce Albert, runup
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
Bruce Albert, runup
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9512 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Sat Apr 01, 2023 7:48 am
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vogtski wrote: | Hurricane Ridge, with far fewer staff, tries to open Friday-Sunday in the winter, so Rainier management strikes me as more reluctant than shorthanded. |
Hurricane Ridge has ski lifts that visitors need to buy lift tickets to ride. If the road isn't open, no tickets get sold, perhaps a factor in the motivation in opening the road.
The current snow depth at Hurricane Ridge is 73 inches vs 165 inches at Paradise. So the physical aspects of keeping the road to Paradise open are more demanding than Hurricane Ridge.
But why let rational facts interfere with a good rant.
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Bruce Albert Member
Joined: 01 Sep 2007 Posts: 160 | TRs | Pics
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peter707 wrote: | I decided to find out how many days the gate to Paradise was open so far this winter. I will use the timeframe "October 21 - April 1". |
Thank you for compiling that. It appears that April 1 and 2 can be added to the 'closed' list.
I really have nothing new to add here except to (sadly) predict that weekday closures and unreliable weekend openings will become the way of the world in years to come.
Superintendent Dungeon is more than welcome to pull it together and to prove me wrong.
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altasnob Member
Joined: 29 Aug 2007 Posts: 1406 | TRs | Pics Location: Tacoma |
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altasnob
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Mon Apr 03, 2023 6:50 am
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Bruce Albert wrote: | (sadly) predict that weekday closures and unreliable weekend openings will become the way of the world in years to come. |
Like all facets of life, we get wealthier, less people are in poverty, and yet life, overall, seems to be getting worse, not better.
Regular 8 am openings back in the day? We can only dream.
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vogtski Member
Joined: 03 Dec 2022 Posts: 47 | TRs | Pics Location: Waitgate WA |
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vogtski
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Tue Apr 04, 2023 7:29 am
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altasnob wrote: | Regular 8 am openings back in the day? We can only dream. |
The current nightmare reality is that twice the staff and four times the budget has resulted in about twice the delays and four times the closed days. That despite probably a hundred million dollars over fifty years for upgraded roads, radios that actually work, and a 4WD vehicle fleet that would make a Saudi prince blush. Not to mention helpful inventions such as jet helicopters, automated telemetry, webcams and internet...
The philosopher Eric Hoffer could have been describing the modern NPS when he wrote, “Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
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Bruce Albert
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9512 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
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Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:01 am
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vogtski wrote: | The current nightmare reality is that twice the staff and four times the budget has resulted in about twice the delays and four times the closed days |
If you figure in general inflation a budget of 4x dollars today is half as many "real dollars" as back in the days when "Scoop Jackson" was funneling extra congressional allocations to Mt Rainier.
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vogtski Member
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vogtski
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Sun Apr 09, 2023 9:39 am
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Well, not quite everything, Greg...
----------------------------------------------
NWAC
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
West Slopes South
Issued Saturday, April 8, 2023 - 6:30PM
Expires Sunday, April 9, 2023 - 6:30PM
Author
Andy Harrington
Avalanche Danger: 4- HIGH
THE BOTTOM LINE
An atmospheric river is set to impact the West South zone on Sunday, resulting in very dangerous avalanche conditions. Expect wet avalanches large enough to bury and kill you to occur on most steep slopes. It likely won’t be a very pleasant day outside, so better to stay out of the mountains until the rain has stopped.
https://nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/#/west-slopes-south
---------------------------------------------------------
Twitter
MountRainierNPS
@MountRainierNPS
The gate to Paradise at Longmire is open. All vehicles are required to carry tire chains. -lv
9:04 AM · Apr 9, 2023
·
546
Views
------------------------------------------------------
"...said Greg Dudgeon, park superintendent. “The park did not make this decision lightly, but safety is at the forefront of everything we do. We believe these winter access changes are the safest choice for our staff and visitors during the winter season.”
https://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/news/mount-rainier-national-park-announces-winter-2022-23-recreational-access-changes.htm
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peter707 Member
Joined: 16 Jun 2022 Posts: 136 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle, WA |
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peter707
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Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:56 am
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peter707 Member
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peter707
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Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:06 pm
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Here's the NWAC avalanche forecast archive so far. It may be possible to examine the correlation between NWAC forcast and paradise opening, to see if it's mostly weather conditions or avalanche conditions, that pose the most operational issues.
This date in this comment are the date the forecast is published, so the April 8, 2023 high forcast would apply to April 9, 2023. https://nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/#/archive
Quote: | Apr 9, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Apr 8, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South high (open April 9th 2023!)
Apr 7, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Apr 6, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Apr 5, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Apr 4, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Apr 3, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Apr 2, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Apr 1, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 31, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 30, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 29, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 28, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 27, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 26, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 25, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 24, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 23, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 22, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 21, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 20, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 19, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 18, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 17, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 16, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 15, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 14, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 13, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 12, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 11, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 10, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 9, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 8, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 7, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 6, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 5, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Mar 4, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 3, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 2, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Mar 1, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 28, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 27, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 26, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 25, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 24, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 23, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 22, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 21, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 20, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 19, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 18, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 17, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 16, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 15, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 14, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 13, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 12, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 11, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 10, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 9, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 8, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 7, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 6, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 5, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 4, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 4, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 3, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Feb 2, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Feb 1, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South low
Jan 31, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 30, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 30, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 29, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 28, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 27, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 26, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 25, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South low
Jan 24, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 23, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 22, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 21, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Jan 20, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 19, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 18, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 17, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 16, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 15, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 14, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 13, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Jan 12, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Jan 11, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South high (weekday closure January 12)
Jan 10, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 9, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 8, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Jan 7, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 6, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 5, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 4, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 3, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 2, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Jan 1, 2023 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 31, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 30, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 29, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 28, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 27, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 26, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 25, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 24, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 23, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South high (paradise closed December 24)
Dec 22, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 21, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 20, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 20, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 19, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 18, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 17, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 16, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 15, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 14, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 13, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 12, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 11, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 10, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Dec 9, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South high (paradise closed dec 10)
Dec 8, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 7, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 7, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 6, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 5, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 4, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 3, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 2, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Dec 1, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Nov 30, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Nov 29, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Nov 28, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Nov 27, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South moderate
Nov 26, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South considerable
Nov 25, 2022 Avalanche Forecast West Slopes South low
Nov 23, 2022 General Information West Slopes South no rating
Nov 21, 2022 General Information West Slopes South no rating
Nov 18, 2022 General Information West Slopes South no rating
Nov 16, 2022 General Information West Slopes South no rating
Nov 4, 2022 General Information West Slopes South no rating
Sep 7, 2022 General Information West Slopes South no rating |
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Cyclopath Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012 Posts: 7727 | TRs | Pics Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:12 pm
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Randito wrote: | JimmyBob wrote: | Randito wrote: | I'm certain that it is far easier and faster for NPS personnel to post updates to Twitter than posting an update on the NPS website. |
The NPS website should then include that feed directly, it'll go to both/all places automatically. |
How many websites have you built and maintained in the course of your career? |
There you have it. Only web developers have earned the right to complain if the government isn't serving their needs with the money it takes from them.
vogtski
vogtski
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Randito Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 9512 | TRs | Pics Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:01 pm
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Cyclopath wrote: | Randito wrote: | JimmyBob wrote: | Randito wrote: | I'm certain that it is far easier and faster for NPS personnel to post updates to Twitter than posting an update on the NPS website. |
The NPS website should then include that feed directly, it'll go to both/all places automatically. |
How many websites have you built and maintained in the course of your career? |
There you have it. Only web developers have earned the right to complain if the government isn't serving their needs with the money it takes from them. |
I noticed that they asserted that it should be automatic to provide some feature. Constructive criticism that can effect a productive change comes from knowledge and experience. Criticism based on ignorance it typically less useful in effective improvement.
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vogtski Member
Joined: 03 Dec 2022 Posts: 47 | TRs | Pics Location: Waitgate WA |
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vogtski
Member
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Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:59 pm
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[quote="peter707"]
Here's the NWAC avalanche forecast archive so far. It may be possible to examine the correlation between NWAC forcast and paradise opening, to see if it's mostly weather conditions or avalanche conditions, that pose the most operational issues.
This date in this comment are the date the forecast is published, so the April 8, 2023 high forcast would apply to April 9, 2023. https://nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/#/archive
[quote/]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks again for sharing these! I tried to add your earlier Open/Closed list to this one. It's possible I screwed up the data because this list runs from present back to late November and the other from October to now. Also, Dec 7 and Feb 4 are double-listed on your recent one.
I doubt the weather/avalanche effect is "mostly/or", if by weather you mean snowfall They probably work together to delay/prevent opening. Employee illness and equipment breakdowns are other significant factors among many.
This winter's snowfall totals are probably distorted:
Paradise telemetry Status Alert 2022-12-09
Due to limited road access, the 24hr Snow Board will not be cleared on a daily basis. It will be manually reset to 0, when park staff are able to reach the weather station plot.
IMO, these lists would show any correlations more clearly by bumping all the NWAC forecasts to the same line/day they apply as your April 8-9 hazard seems to do, rather than the previous day they were issued.
To simplify, I just assumed the listed closures in November before NWAC forecasting began were due to short staffing. Here's my totals since then:
Open - High (1 day)
Open - Considerable (15)
Open - Moderate (20)
Open - Low (1)
Closed - High (2 days)
Closed - Considerable (7)
Closed - Moderate (1)
---------------------------------------------------
STATUS DATE NWAC FORECAST
OPEN Apr 9, 2023 considerable
OPEN Apr 8, 2023 high (open April 9th 2023!)
Apr 7, 2023 moderate
Apr 6, 2023 considerable
Apr 5, 2023 considerable
Apr 4, 2023 moderate
Apr 3, 2023 moderate
CLOSED Apr 2, 2023 moderate
CLOSED Apr 1, 2023 considerable
Mar 31, 2023 considerable
Mar 30, 2023 moderate
Mar 29, 2023 moderate
Mar 28, 2023 moderate
Mar 27, 2023 moderate
OPEN Mar 26, 2023 moderate
LATE Mar 25, 2023 moderate
Mar 24, 2023 considerable
Mar 23, 2023 considerable
Mar 22, 2023 moderate
Mar 21, 2023 moderate
Mar 20, 2023 moderate
OPEN Mar 19, 2023 moderate
OPEN Mar 18, 2023 moderate
Mar 17, 2023 considerable
Mar 16, 2023 moderate
Mar 15, 2023 moderate
Mar 14, 2023 moderate
Mar 13, 2023 considerable
LATE Mar 12, 2023 considerable
LATE Mar 11, 2023 considerable
Mar 10, 2023 considerable
Mar 9, 2023 considerable
Mar 8, 2023 moderate
Mar 7, 2023 moderate
Mar 6, 2023 moderate
OPEN Mar 5, 2023 moderate
LATE Mar 4, 2023 considerable
Mar 3, 2023 considerable
Mar 2, 2023 considerable
Mar 1, 2023 considerable
Feb 28, 2023 moderate
Feb 27, 2023 moderate
CLOSED Feb 26, 2023 considerable
OPEN Feb 25, 2023 considerable
Feb 24, 2023 moderate
Feb 23, 2023 moderate
Feb 22, 2023 considerable
Feb 21, 2023 considerable
Feb 20, 2023 considerable
OPEN Feb 19, 2023 considerable
OPEN Feb 18, 2023 moderate
Feb 17, 2023 moderate
Feb 16, 2023 moderate
Feb 15, 2023 moderate
Feb 14, 2023 moderate
Feb 13, 2023 considerable
OPEN Feb 12, 2023 considerable
OPEN Feb 11, 2023 moderate
Feb 10, 2023 moderate
Feb 9, 2023 moderate
Feb 8, 2023 moderate
Feb 7, 2023 considerable
Feb 6, 2023 considerable
LATE Feb 5, 2023 considerable
OPEN Feb 4, 2023 moderate
Feb 4, 2023 moderate
Feb 3, 2023 considerable
Feb 2, 2023 moderate
Feb 1, 2023 low
Jan 31, 2023 moderate
Jan 30, 2023 moderate
Jan 30, 2023 moderate
OPEN Jan 29, 2023 moderate
OPEN Jan 28, 2023 moderate
Jan 27, 2023 moderate
Jan 26, 2023 moderate
Jan 25, 2023 low
Jan 24, 2023 moderate
Jan 23, 2023 moderate
CLOSED Jan 22, 2023 moderate
OPEN Jan 21, 2023 considerable
Jan 20, 2023 moderate
Jan 19, 2023 moderate
Jan 18, 2023 moderate
Jan 17, 2023 moderate
Jan 16, 2023 moderate
OPEN Jan 15, 2023 moderate
LATE Jan 14, 2023 moderate
Jan 13, 2023 considerable
Jan 12, 2023 considerable
Jan 11, 2023 high
Jan 10, 2023 moderate
Jan 9, 2023 moderate
LATE Jan 8, 2023 considerable
OPEN Jan 7, 2023 moderate
Jan 6, 2023 moderate
Jan 5, 2023 moderate
Jan 4, 2023 moderate
Jan 3, 2023 moderate
Jan 2, 2023 moderate
OPEN Jan 1, 2023 moderate
OPEN Dec 31, 2022 moderate
Dec 30, 2022 considerable
Dec 29, 2022 considerable
Dec 28, 2022 moderate
Dec 27, 2022 considerable
Dec 26, 2022 considerable
OPEN Dec 25, 2022 considerable
CLOSED Dec 24, 2022 considerable
Dec 23, 2022 high (paradise closed December 24)
Dec 22, 2022 considerable
Dec 21, 2022 considerable
Dec 20, 2022 considerable
Dec 20, 2022 considerable
Dec 19, 2022 considerable
LATE Dec 18, 2022 moderate
OPEN Dec 17, 2022 moderate
Dec 16, 2022 moderate
Dec 15, 2022 moderate
Dec 14, 2022 moderate
Dec 13, 2022 moderate
Dec 12, 2022 moderate
Dec 11, 2022 moderate
CLOSED Dec 10, 2022 considerable
OPEN Dec 9, 2022 high (paradise closed dec 10)
Dec 8, 2022 moderate
Dec 7, 2022 moderate
Dec 6, 2022 moderate
Dec 5, 2022 moderate
OPEN Dec 4, 2022 moderate
LATE Dec 3, 2022 moderate
Dec 2, 2022 moderate
Dec 1, 2022 moderate
Nov 30, 2022 considerable
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHANGE TO WEEKEND ONLY SCHEDULE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLOSED Nov 29, 2022 considerable
CLOSED Nov 28, 2022 moderate
CLOSED Nov 27, 2022 moderate
OPEN Nov 26, 2022 considerable
CLOSED Nov 25, 2022 low
NWAC BEGINS AVY FORECASTS
CLOSED Nov 23, 2022
CLOSED Nov 21, 2022
CLOSED Nov 18, 2022
OPEN Nov 16, 2022
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
peter707
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
peter707
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vogtski Member
Joined: 03 Dec 2022 Posts: 47 | TRs | Pics Location: Waitgate WA |
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vogtski
Member
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Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:45 am
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The American public traditionally rates the National Park Service among the most admired federal agencies. The latest edition of federal Best Places To Work is just out. For the past eighteen years of this survey, NPS employees have rated their own management in the bottom quarter of all federal agencies.
Their 2022 score ranked 371st out of 432 agencies:
https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/detail/?c=IN10
Search "Best Places To Work" at https://www.nationalparkstraveler.org/ for past annual summaries & interesting comments.
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
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