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Pyrites
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Pyrites
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PostSun Feb 25, 2024 4:19 pm 
This might sound like an extension, but with a little longer view itís a loss of two days per week. Reduced access means fewer visitors. In longer term does this set up a downward spiral. Fewer visitors, reduced funding. Reduced funding, less opening. Less opening, fewer visitors. Fewer visitors, less funding.

Keep Calm and Carry On? Heck No. Stay Excited and Get Outside!

fourteen410
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peter707
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peter707
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PostTue Feb 27, 2024 9:37 am 
Quote:
In longer term does this set up a downward spiral. Fewer visitors, reduced funding. Reduced funding, less opening. Less opening, fewer visitors. Fewer visitors, less funding.
The current boom of social-media focused folks is one algorithm change away from drying up. So hopefully despite the 'record visitation', the park can continue to cater to a wide variety of folks rather than adding too much bureaucracy. I am especially hopeful that the sledding area reopens in the future in the winter. Those kids will grow up and fondly remember the park, and many of the parents are not outdoor-oriented as well. It's a chance to reach a different group of folks. Many of the parents won't have energy/prioritization to get a timed-entry permit months in advance in the summer, nor will be able to wrangle a car of many children / spouses to leave at 5am to get in before the 7am timed entry.

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altasnob
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PostTue Feb 27, 2024 10:20 am 
Pyrites wrote:
In longer term does this set up a downward spiral. Fewer visitors, reduced funding. Reduced funding, less opening. Less opening, fewer visitors. Fewer visitors, less funding.
I think that is the park's plan, at least in regards to winter. I think the park wants to only open on weekends and holidays (like Hurricane Ridge), but needs to ease the plan in for fear of public revolt.
peter707 wrote:
I am especially hopeful that the sledding area reopens in the future in the winter.
I don't see the sledding hill ever opening again. The goal for the park is to scare winter visitors away, not encourage them. They have a colossal amount of snow up there and it would take very little effort to open the sledding hill, but it still remains closed. I see people dragging their kids in sleds around the parking lot in a pathetic attempt to recreate the experience that the park has taken from them.

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peter707
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peter707
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PostTue Feb 27, 2024 9:52 pm 
Last year, I looked at when the road was open[1], and vogtski looked into how the closures correlated to avalanche hazard[2]. A few things have changed, this year, Tuesday and Wednesday are closed. Road updates are now posted as "nps-alerts" on NPS website rather than twitter.[3] Instead, I decided to look at publicly available gpx tracks from skiers, snowshoers, hikers, and two intrepid runners who uploaded strava tracks.[4] I found 51 days with at at least one gpx track on strava, out of 97 eligible opening days so far. Well ahead of last year's 37 openings. Not every day with zero tracks had a closed road. Date TrackFound EligibleDay 11/09/23 0 1 11/10/23 1 1 11/11/23 0 1 11/12/23 1 1 11/13/23 0 1 11/14/23 0 0 11/15/23 0 0 11/16/23 0 1 11/17/23 1 1 11/18/23 1 1 11/19/23 0 1 11/20/23 0 1 11/21/23 0 0 11/22/23 0 0 11/23/23 1 1 11/24/23 1 1 11/25/23 1 1 11/26/23 1 1 11/27/23 0 1 11/28/23 0 0 11/29/23 0 0 11/30/23 0 1 12/01/23 0 1 12/02/23 0 1 12/03/23 0 1 12/04/23 0 1 12/05/23 0 0 12/06/23 0 0 12/07/23 0 1 12/08/23 0 1 12/09/23 1 1 12/10/23 0 1 12/11/23 1 1 12/12/23 0 0 12/13/23 0 0 12/14/23 0 1 12/15/23 1 1 12/16/23 1 1 12/17/23 1 1 12/18/23 0 1 12/19/23 0 0 12/20/23 0 0 12/21/23 1 1 12/22/23 0 1 12/23/23 1 1 12/24/23 1 1 12/25/23 0 1 12/26/23 0 0 12/27/23 0 0 12/28/23 0 1 12/29/23 1 1 12/30/23 1 1 12/31/23 1 1 01/01/24 1 1 01/02/24 0 0 01/03/24 0 0 01/04/24 0 1 01/05/24 0 1 01/06/24 0 1 01/07/24 1 1 01/08/24 0 1 01/09/24 0 0 01/10/24 0 0 01/11/24 0 1 01/12/24 0 1 01/13/24 1 1 01/14/24 1 1 01/15/24 1 1 01/16/24 0 0 01/17/24 0 0 01/18/24 0 1 01/19/24 0 1 01/20/24 1 1 01/21/24 1 1 01/22/24 0 1 01/23/24 0 0 01/24/24 0 0 01/25/24 0 1 01/26/24 1 1 01/27/24 1 1 01/28/24 0 1 01/29/24 1 1 01/30/24 0 0 01/31/24 0 0 02/01/24 1 1 02/02/24 1 1 02/03/24 1 1 02/04/24 1 1 02/05/24 0 1 02/06/24 0 0 02/07/24 0 0 02/08/24 1 1 02/09/24 0 1 02/10/24 1 1 02/11/24 1 1 02/12/24 0 1 02/13/24 0 0 02/14/24 0 0 02/15/24 0 1 02/16/24 1 1 02/17/24 1 1 02/18/24 1 1 02/19/24 1 1 02/20/24 0 0 02/21/24 0 0 02/22/24 0 1 02/23/24 1 1 02/24/24 1 1 02/25/24 0 1 02/26/24 0 1 02/27/24 0 0 02/28/24 0 0 02/29/24 0 1 03/01/24 0 1 03/02/24 0 1 03/03/24 0 1 03/04/24 0 1 03/05/24 0 0 03/06/24 0 0 03/07/24 1 1 03/08/24 1 1 03/09/24 1 1 03/10/24 0 1 03/11/24 0 1 03/12/24 0 0 03/13/24 0 0 03/14/24 1 1 03/15/24 1 1 03/16/24 1 1 03/17/24 1 1 03/18/24 1 1 03/19/24 0 0 03/20/24 0 0 03/21/24 1 1 03/22/24 0 1 [1]
peter707 wrote:
Results: Total=162 AccessChangeWeekdayClosure=88 LastMinuteClosed=3 Closed=20 OpenLate=14 Open=37 Out of the 162 winter-season days, the road was open on time 23% of the time, with another 9% of the time opening late.
[2]
vogtski wrote:
To simplify, I just assumed the listed closures in November before NWAC forecasting began were due to short staffing. Here's my totals since then: Open - High (1 day) Open - Considerable (15) Open - Moderate (20) Open - Low (1) Closed - High (2 days) Closed - Considerable (7) Closed - Moderate (1)
[3] While wayback machine has plenty of restore points, the jquery didn't execute to render the nps-alerts in time. Instead, the javascript was archived, which renders today's date road status (rather than the day of the archive). [4] I considered some subset of the following strava segments. The snowshoe data is especially useful, for some reason snowshoe users spread out over more days than even a larger number of backcountry skiers. I'll make a second pass to get all the data in April. https://www.strava.com/segments/34023313 https://www.strava.com/segments/4644664 https://www.strava.com/segments/17127879 https://www.strava.com/segments/36359310 https://www.strava.com/segments/17930110 https://www.strava.com/segments/28411172 https://www.strava.com/segments/17127882 https://www.strava.com/segments/34023306 https://www.strava.com/segments/906385 https://www.strava.com/segments/6467186 https://www.strava.com/segments/3581986 https://www.strava.com/segments/6374313 https://www.strava.com/segments/1202898 https://www.strava.com/segments/1202900 https://www.strava.com/segments/27885898 https://www.strava.com/segments/21690755 https://www.strava.com/segments/25327755 https://www.strava.com/segments/21690710 https://www.strava.com/segments/4652703 https://www.strava.com/segments/985170 https://www.strava.com/segments/4911316 https://www.strava.com/segments/5112908 https://www.strava.com/segments/1981265 https://www.strava.com/segments/24904566 https://www.strava.com/segments/4771170 https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/washington/camp-muir-route-via-skyline-trail

ChinookPass, philfort
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peter707
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peter707
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PostSat Mar 23, 2024 1:44 pm 

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