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gb
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gb
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PostWed Nov 23, 2022 7:01 am 
NWS Discussion this morning:
Quote:
However, moisture from the low will stick around into Monday and temperatures/snow levels will continue to drop. Monday-Tuesday will be the days to watch. While the chance of lowland snow will be increasing, the probability of it happening (as well as amounts if it does) varies greatly from location to location. Right now, the most probable locations would be the north side of the Olympic Peninsula and Western Whatcom county due to some possible Fraser River outflow starting. Additionally, models are suggesting another frontal system moving through Tuesday, and some ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting the potential for a widespread lowland snow event. The confidence is not too high with this yet as the timing of the cold air and the frontal passage is going to have to line up. But certainly something that will have to be monitored. Butwin

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gb
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PostThu Nov 24, 2022 7:03 am 
11/24 Discussion extended:
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Temperatures will also fall rather quickly Sunday night post-front, with lows Sunday night ranging in the upper 20s to mid 30s. There is some uncertainty as to how much precipitation lingers Sunday night into Monday morning, but the convective nature of showers may lower snow levels for a rain/snow mix in the lowlands, especially near any convergence zone area near Snohomish County. This will be a period to monitor. Much cooler temperatures are likely for the majority of next week with ensemble guidance highlighting a longer duration period of troughing and below normal temperatures. The next weather system looks to potentially impact the area during the Tuesday night-Thursday time period. Uncertainty exists as to how much cold air is in place, as well as exact trajectory of the upper level trough during this period, with respect to precipitation type for the lowlands, at least initially. The upper trough does look to bring another re-enforcing round of colder air to the PacNW, with ensemble guidance suggesting temp anomalies in the range of 10-20 degrees below normal late next week. The overall theme for much of next week will be much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain snowfall at times, and periods of potential lowland wintry precipitation. JD

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Chief Joseph
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PostThu Nov 24, 2022 3:24 pm 
Here in Verlot, yes for sure.

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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Cyclopath
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PostThu Nov 24, 2022 7:59 pm 
We named a kitten Snowy for his white boots. He was born at the very end of January and hasn't learned about the snow yet. I can't wait to send him to play in it. It used to snow here every five years or so, lately it happens at least once every winter. I'll love it if I can ski from home again.

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gb
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PostSat Nov 26, 2022 6:00 am 
This is an interesting analysis and description of tools from today's Forecast Discussion. I've not used this tool as it is new from the Climate Prediction Center:
Quote:
Guidance is in general agreement an upper trough will slide southeast along the British Columbia coast Tuesday-Thursday, and ensembles have come into a bit better agreement in the depth and intensity of the trough, but minor fluctuations of the systems storm track will greatly influence sfc precipitation type during this period. As such, have focused on looking at the WPC cluster analysis (all 90 ensemble members from GFS/CMC/ECMWF) for the 24-hour period ending 00z Thurs. The Cluster Analysis tool is useful in identifying ensemble uncertainty, as well as potential extremes and the forecast. Per the Cluster 500mb heights, approximately 55% of the distribution indicates a deepening trough offshore of Vancouver Island, with a more elongated trough noted on only 21% of the cluster (primarily GFS). This would suggest a deeper, stronger system is likely. One of the main impacts from a stronger system would be increased southwesterly flow, and thus warmer temperatures both at the surface and aloft on Wednesday. This can be seen on the cluster analysis max/min temperatures, with temperatures a tad warmer than the mean with a deeper trough. With all that said, temperatures will still be below average during this period due to the previous trough moving overhead Sunday-Monday, and thus making for a rather tricky setup for potential wintry precipitation in the lowlands due to the lower snow levels. Reviewing NBM guidance for the 72-hour period ending 12z Friday shows widespread 60-90% chance of >1" of snow for the lowlands. Potential for 4 inches or more favors the Cascade Foothills/Valleys (50-80% chance). In addition to the western Kitsap County area (60-90% chance) due to colder air sticking around that area longer. As for the I-5 corridor a general theme of higher probabilities exist north of Seattle (40-70%), and less southward (25-50%). Minor fluctuations in the storm intensity/track will lead to any further adjustments in thinking for lowland snow. For that reason, it will continue to be important to stay updated on the weather forecast during this period. Finally (if you're still reading), the trough will reinforce the cold airmass for the Pacific Northwest late next week. Temperatures will be well below normal for this time period, with widespread lows in the teens/20s and highs in the 30s on Friday. JD

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treeswarper
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PostSun Nov 27, 2022 8:05 pm 
Meanwhile, in the other part... One forecast has a few inches for here, whilst another says a foot.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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Chief Joseph
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PostSun Nov 27, 2022 10:10 pm 
Coming down hard and wet here in Verlot, about 4" in an hour and a half and supposed to snow 'till 3 am, so probably close a foot or more. Threw a tarp on my car, supposed to be wet first then cold and freeze.

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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Jordan
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 3:22 am 
Chief Joseph wrote:
Coming down hard and wet here in Verlot, about 4" in an hour and a half and supposed to snow 'till 3 am, so probably close a foot or more. Threw a tarp on my car, supposed to be wet first then cold and freeze.
Stop bragging

none

jaysway, rossb  SpookyKite89
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Chief Joseph
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 1:12 pm 
Jordan wrote:
Chief Joseph wrote:
Coming down hard and wet here in Verlot, about 4" in an hour and a half and supposed to snow 'till 3 am, so probably close a foot or more. Threw a tarp on my car, supposed to be wet first then cold and freeze.
Stop bragging
Well, I thought sure it would be at least 6" but ended up being more like 4".... frown.gif .....but more on the way. At least I don't have to shovel...yet.

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.

SpookyKite89
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rossb
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 3:20 pm 
I appreciate the updates, Chief. I'm thinking of visiting the Mountain Loop, and just skiing the road. You don't need much snow when you are on pavement (as opposed to a gravel road).

Cyclopath
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Chief Joseph
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 3:28 pm 
Roadway is bare and wet today, probably icy after dark. Heavier snow predicted for tomorrow.

Go placidly amid the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 3:37 pm 
It isn't snow here, it's the wind. We have the common North Wind whistling down the valley and the temperature was 26. You do the math. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. It does make for a very quick dog though.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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BigBrunyon
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 4:59 pm 
By my research its gonna be near certain to get a Big Snow Event. Mainly based on the analysis. I'm predictin' Big Snow Events.

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Snowshovel
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 5:00 pm 
treeswarper wrote:
It isn't snow here, it's the wind
That sounds straight out of the Progressive “becoming your parents” commercial.

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Joey
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PostMon Nov 28, 2022 5:45 pm 
Click the map at your area and follow the link for NOAA details. Seattle up to 3". My neighborhood NE of Redmond up to 8"
View larger size in new window

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