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Eric Hansen
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Eric Hansen
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PostTue Dec 13, 2022 9:58 pm 
https://www.outsideonline.com/adventure-travel/national-parks/best-national-parks-to-see-northern-lights/ Author states that sun goes thru 11 year cycles, and that we are heading from a solar minimum in 2019 to a maximum in 2025 - and heightened odds of seeing the Northern Lights in the northern tier of Lower 48 states. Article offers an overview of how the Northern Lights work and a number of locations - #6 being North Cascades NP Worth a peek. --- Excerpt below: "But you don’t have to catch a flight to Iceland or Greenland, or brave the winter cold in Alaska, to experience that bright-green glow. You can see it in the national parks of the contiguous U.S. as well. Better yet, your chances of seeing the lights are increasing. The sun travels through 11-year cycles of activity. During the stretch known as solar minimum, which last hit in late 2019, northern-lights activity wanes. Right now we’re marching toward what is known as solar maximum in 2025, with every year improving as we move into peak aurora activity. To spot auroras, you’ll need luck, an understanding of the phenomenon, and some planning legwork. That includes finding an aurora-hunting spot with minimal obstructions to the northern horizon (where those green ribbons dance); a strong geomagnetic storm—the stronger the storm (measured via the Kp index of Kp 0 to Kp 9), the likelier the auroras; and clear skies or minimal clouds. The lights you’ll witness in the lower 48 may look a bit more muted than those in Iceland because you’re viewing them from farther away—that’s why they often appear closer to the horizon. But down in the U.S. northern-border states, there is a perk: You can hunt auroras in every season, as, unlike Alaska, this stretch of the U.S. experiences nighttime darkness all year. And the quest is getting easier and easier thanks to the powerful new solar cycle. We’re already enjoying a boom—as evidenced by 2022’s news report upon news report (upon news report) of lower-48 shows to watch for, the giddy dialogue in the increasingly popular U.S. aurora-hunting Facebook groups, and my own increasing views."

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thunderhead
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thunderhead
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PostTue Dec 13, 2022 10:57 pm 
We need what... kp7 for a good one here?

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Eric Hansen
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Eric Hansen
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PostWed Dec 14, 2022 10:29 am 
Not something I have deep knowledge of, so I hope someone else can address that. I just saw the article, thought it of interest, and posted.

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wyattmullen
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PostWed Dec 14, 2022 12:59 pm 
thunderhead wrote:
We need what... kp7 for a good one here?
It depends on what you consider good and a myriad of other factors, but 7 is a good number to shoot for. I've caught it about a dozen times in the last couple years and this is how I think of it from my experience with a couple rough probability estimates: Kp-3 or less: Rarely (<5%) visible in far northeastern WA with a camera. Kp-4: Infrequently (~10-20%) visible in far northeastern WA with a camera. Kp-5: Sometimes (~20-25%) visible in northern WA with a camera, sometimes faint green glow visible to naked eye Kp-6: Often (>50%) naked eye visible in northeastern WA, Sometimes (30-40%) visible as faint pillars to naked eye in Western WA Kp-7: Likely (80-90%) naked eye visibility in northeastern WA, Often (50-65%) visible as faintly colored and moving pillars in Western WA. Sometimes (30-40%) visible in Northern Oregon. Kp-8+: I don't think I've witnessed a sustained Kp-8+ in the last decade so hard for me to say, but probably likely (> 75%+) to see colors and movement with naked eye in Washington and often in Northern Oregon. The thing to know is it's really a game of probabilities. The Kp index doesn't tell the whole story. Sometimes a Kp-7 produces no aurora while a Kp-5 is visible in Western WA with the naked eye. You need the magnetic field of the charged particles to align correctly with the magnetic field of the Earth and you need the right speed of the solar wind and other things. And of course you need clear skies and ideally a crescent moon or less. Unless you're a photographer, I wouldn't plan on going out unless the Kp is 7 or greater and the weather looks good with limited moonlight. That's when I think about changing my plans to specifically head into a dark sky area and even then you probably have about a 50/50 chance of catching it.

rossb, jaysway, thunderhead
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Mike Collins
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PostWed Dec 14, 2022 1:09 pm 
spaceweather.com is the website I go to for aurora borealis forecasts.

Malachai Constant
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Malachai Constant
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Malachai Constant
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PostWed Dec 14, 2022 6:13 pm 
Odds are a lot better in BC north of Kamloops

"You do not laugh when you look at the mountains, or when you look at the sea." Lafcadio Hearn
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PowderPawn
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PostMon Dec 19, 2022 6:38 pm 
I'm not sure how but I still have never seen the northern lights and this is on my bucket list.

zimmertr
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