Forum Index > Trail Talk > Snow and Very Cold likely (this time)
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Joey
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Joey
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PostThu Dec 22, 2022 8:35 am 
Potential for widespread major ice storm. But still uncertainty in the models https://twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1605956409308356608

joker
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Cyclopath
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PostThu Dec 22, 2022 8:49 am 
dixon wrote:
Wow that is insanely cold! Are you planning to go hike/ski tomorrow? It's a mild -1 here at snoq pass 🥶
I skied in the Rendezvous yesterday. Getting ready to ski Mazama today. I'm bundling up like I never have before!

seawallrunner, dixon
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gb
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 1:56 am 
Interesting AR (Atmospheric River) map from Howard Sheckter: http://mammothweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ARScale_PlumeMap_Forecast.png I got up to see that it did not snow, but is raining at 25F this morning. Oh, goody.....I did my errands yesterday. 30F at the top of Crystal and Hurricane, 0+- at Snoqualmie.

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Joey
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Joey
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 4:34 am 
Reporting from NE of Redmond Coating of frozen rain on our south-facing windows I90 closed from 405 to Hwy 18 due to ice and crashes/spinouts NOAA says we could get up to 1/2 inch of ice and some wind

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Roly Poly
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 6:25 am 
Well Iíve spent the night in my car with all my dogs. A huge tree fell on my house and took out part of the roof. And the winds are still raging. No power either.

joker, Anne Elk  Kascadia, JimK, meck  Cyclopath, gb
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reststep
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 6:27 am 
gb wrote:
30F at the top of Crystal and Hurricane, 0+- at Snoqualmie.
Interesting, 30F at Mt. Baker also.

"The mountains are calling and I must go." - John Muir
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Waterman
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 7:15 am 
Freezing rain San Juan Islands. All boats running.

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I,I took the one less traveled by. And that has made all the difference. Robert Frost
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philfort
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 7:59 am 
gb wrote:
Interesting AR (Atmospheric River) map from Howard Sheckter: http://mammothweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ARScale_PlumeMap_Forecast.png
Why are the areas with the highest "AR" category not where it rains the most?

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altasnob
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 8:25 am 
philfort wrote:
gb wrote:
Interesting AR (Atmospheric River) map from Howard Sheckter: http://mammothweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ARScale_PlumeMap_Forecast.png
Why are the areas with the highest "AR" category not where it rains the most?
I'm a little confused by that map, but I think the dots for atmospheric river and the corresponding colors show the areas that are most likely to be hit by atmospheric rivers. While Crater Lake to Mt. Lassen may get less rain than say, Mt. Olympus, Mt. Baker, and Mt. Rainier, I wouldn't be surprised if that southern Oregon/Northern California area gets hit by more atmospheric rivers.

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RichP
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 8:39 am 
Roly Poly wrote:
A huge tree fell on my house and took out part of the roof.
Bummer. Sorry to hear that RP. frown.gif

grannyhiker, runup, flatsqwerl
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Joey
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 9:03 am 
Roly Poly wrote:
Well Iíve spent the night in my car with all my dogs. A huge tree fell on my house and took out part of the roof. And the winds are still raging. No power either.
Glad no one was hurt. Hope you can get a temporary patch of any kind to keep the rain out since there is a lot on the way.

grannyhiker
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kiliki
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 9:15 am 
Roly Poly wrote:
Well Iíve spent the night in my car with all my dogs. A huge tree fell on my house and took out part of the roof. And the winds are still raging. No power either.
Yikes. I hope you are able to get out. I feel very fortunate to be snug and warm. I can't remember ever having a storm quite like this, in Seattle at least. My dog splayed out trying to get up and down the few steps to the yard. My husband crawled down and made sure the heated hummingbird feeders weren't clogged with ice.

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gb
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 9:17 am 
altasnob wrote:
philfort wrote:
gb wrote:
Interesting AR (Atmospheric River) map from Howard Sheckter: http://mammothweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ARScale_PlumeMap_Forecast.png
Why are the areas with the highest "AR" category not where it rains the most?
I'm a little confused by that map, but I think the dots for atmospheric river and the corresponding colors show the areas that are most likely to be hit by atmospheric rivers. While Crater Lake to Mt. Lassen may get less rain than say, Mt. Olympus, Mt. Baker, and Mt. Rainier, I wouldn't be surprised if that southern Oregon/Northern California area gets hit by more atmospheric rivers.
Well, you need to recognize also that this is a composite forecast over 7 days, so in individual AR events, the flow may be directed to different areas. So this is a sum of the model estimates over that period. I've just never seen that model before. To see the current flow pattern and where the air is coming from, view satellite IR animations. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=24

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gb
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 9:21 am 
Roly Poly wrote:
Well Iíve spent the night in my car with all my dogs. A huge tree fell on my house and took out part of the roof. And the winds are still raging. No power either.
I want to echo my best wishes for you!

grannyhiker
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zephyr
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PostFri Dec 23, 2022 9:28 am 
Roly Poly wrote:
Well Iíve spent the night in my car with all my dogs. A huge tree fell on my house and took out part of the roof. And the winds are still raging. No power either.
How horrible. So sorry to hear this. Glad that you all didn't get injured. frown.gif ~z

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