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cairnes
Ryan Cairnes
Joined: 23 Feb 2023
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Location: Seattle |
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cairnes
Ryan Cairnes
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 Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:45 am |
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It was difficult for me to read the story for several reasons:
1. I unfortunately know exactly what an accident in the area without comms feels like. I fell down Cannon (within sightline of Colchuck) without a satellite device. I had to self rescue and it took me 2 days to get out.
2. The Colchuck NBC route has known avalanche risk. The slope angle is clearly in the danger zone and there are searchable reports, like this one from 2018: https://www.mountaineers.org/blog/lessons-learned-spring-avalanche-on-colchuck-nbc
3. Having climbed the route myself, climbing the route in winter conditions sounds super scary. The couloir proper wouldn't have been protectable with pickets. The north face, which is even steeper, would have been equally difficult. The team could have protected with nuts, cams, or natural pro, but that can be spread out quite a bit.
 dave allyn, Alpine Pedestrian, zimmertr
dave allyn, Alpine Pedestrian, zimmertr |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 6378 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:34 am |
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| Randito wrote: | | It's interesting that fatal car collisions don't result in nearly the same level of Monday morning quarterbacking |
r/IdiotsInCars
Bring some popcorn.
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
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Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:39 am |
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| Bootpathguy wrote: | | Many times, unavoidable.
Avalanche fatalities. Almost always avoidable |
Avalanches and car accidents are avoided exactly the same way, by not putting oneself in danger in the first place. The roads are dangerous. Using them is a risk. We all choose to take that risk. Regularly. A lot more often than we choose to venture into avy terrain.
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Snowdog
Member
Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 1015 | TRs | Pics
Location: on (& off) the beaten path |
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Snowdog
Member
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Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:55 pm |
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The American Alpine Club publishes reports of accidents in North America annually. Reports are followed by an Analysis, written by participants, or Rangers or SAR personnel. When written by participants, they include their thoughts on what went wrong, and why, and lessons learned.
It is possible one of the survivors of this tragedy will report on how events unfolded.
'we don't have time for a shortcut'
Cyclopath, Tom, Now I Fly, RumiDude
'we don't have time for a shortcut'
Cyclopath, Tom, Now I Fly, RumiDude
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Joseph
Joseph
Joined: 13 Jun 2018
Posts: 213 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Joseph
Joseph
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Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:49 am |
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| Randito wrote: | | It's interesting that fatal car collisions don't result in nearly the same level of Monday morning quarterbacking, nor in the terrible comments about complaining about taxpayers having to foot the bill for rescue/recovery operations. Despite the far greater number of people killed per month by car crashes.
The media also gives scant coverage to the tragicly high numbers of deaths by intentional self inflicted gunshots, which kill more people than motor vehicle collisions in this state.
Deaths while participating in outdoor recreation in the state are certainly tragic. The numbers of folks that die driving or from despair is many many times greater. |
Isn't it kind of hard to compare deaths from an activity with a potential for lethality (driving a car) with that of climbing a peak in winter? The former is something we all have to do - to get to work, shop, live our lives, etc. while the latter is something you obviously do NOT have to do, but choose to do for whatever reason.
Anne Elk, dave allyn, Bootpathguy
Anne Elk, dave allyn, Bootpathguy |
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Bootpathguy
Member
Joined: 18 Jun 2015
Posts: 1689 | TRs | Pics
Location: United States |
| Cyclopath wrote: | | Bootpathguy wrote: | | Many times, unavoidable.
Avalanche fatalities. Almost always avoidable |
Avalanches and car accidents are avoided exactly the same way, by not putting oneself in danger in the first place. The roads are dangerous. Using them is a risk. We all choose to take that risk. Regularly. A lot more often than we choose to venture into avy terrain. |
Apples & Oranges
Experience is what'cha get, when you get what'cha don't want
Experience is what'cha get, when you get what'cha don't want
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Randito
Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008
Posts: 9072 | TRs | Pics
Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:43 pm |
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| Joseph wrote: | | The former is something we all have to do - to get to work, shop, live our lives, etc. |
Many residents of NYC and many of European cities live their entire lives without ever obtaining a driver's license.
Both are choices, perhaps the choice of driving is more unconscious.
My point is that we accept the risk of many ordinary activities without really considering the risks, but when someone has an unfortunate mishap in a recreational activity it leads to much more Monday morning quarterbacking.
I engage in backcountry skiing and undertake various risks. However in my estimation the highest risk activity I engage in is riding my bicycle on public roads. The risks of unstable snow can be estimated to a certain degree. Cycling on public roads involves undertaking the risk of encountering an impaired, distracted or hostile driver where the probability is more elusive. Cycling exposes a public road user to a higher risk of severe injury than driving a car with modern safety features, but a high speed head on collision with a DUI piloted vehicle going the wrong way on the freeway can also be severe.
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/renton-teen-faces-charges-after-dui-wrong-way-crash-tukwila/GEGMLRVPBJEEDGMJO5YGYSXGKA/
We operate under the illusion of control in many aspects of our lives.
Anne Elk
Anne Elk |
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Joseph
Joseph
Joined: 13 Jun 2018
Posts: 213 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Joseph
Joseph
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Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:09 pm |
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| Randito wrote: | | Joseph wrote: | | The former is something we all have to do - to get to work, shop, live our lives, etc. |
Many residents of NYC and many of European cities live their entire lives without ever obtaining a driver's license.
Both are choices, perhaps the choice of driving is more unconscious.
My point is that we accept the risk of many ordinary activities without really considering the risks, but when someone has an unfortunate mishap in a recreational activity it leads to much more Monday morning quarterbacking.
I engage in backcountry skiing and undertake various risks. However in my estimation the highest risk activity I engage in is riding my bicycle on public roads. The risks of unstable snow can be estimated to a certain degree. Cycling on public roads involves undertaking the risk of encountering an impaired, distracted or hostile driver where the probability is more elusive. Cycling exposes a public road user to a higher risk of severe injury than driving a car with modern safety features, but a high speed head on collision with a DUI piloted vehicle going the wrong way on the freeway can also be severe.
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/renton-teen-faces-charges-after-dui-wrong-way-crash-tukwila/GEGMLRVPBJEEDGMJO5YGYSXGKA/
We operate under the illusion of control in many aspects of our lives. |
But they still ride in cars - like an uber or taxi, or ride a subway which in some cities can be dangerous. I ride my bike in the city too, and agree there's a risk there.
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Randito
Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008
Posts: 9072 | TRs | Pics
Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:19 pm |
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| Joseph wrote: | | I ride my bike in the city too, and agree there's a risk there. |
I found that riding my bike in Manhattan felt safer than riding in Seattle or even on country roads in the Western USA. There is a certain percentage of drivers in Seattle and in the country side that have a hostile attitude toward cyclists. Whereas in Manhattan the attitude is more that cyclists are just another object in the crowded roads to avoid hitting. That and average speeds in Manhattan are quite low.
Joseph
Joseph |
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Joseph
Joseph
Joined: 13 Jun 2018
Posts: 213 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Joseph
Joseph
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Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:00 pm |
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| Randito wrote: | | Joseph wrote: | | I ride my bike in the city too, and agree there's a risk there. |
I found that riding my bike in Manhattan felt safer than riding in Seattle or even on country roads in the Western USA. There is a certain percentage of drivers in Seattle and in the country side that have a hostile attitude toward cyclists. Whereas in Manhattan the attitude is more that cyclists are just another object in the crowded roads to avoid hitting. That and average speeds in Manhattan are quite low. |
I used to ride my bike in the inner part of Tokyo. Man what an adrenalin rush. I was pretty much the only one riding on the streets (some ride on the shoulders in the narrow local roads in the neighborhoods). The best city for me was Honolulu - there were parks you could cut through and the weather was always nice. In Seattle, I mainly stick to the neighborhoods and avoid downtown. West Seattle and Alki seem friendly to cyclists.
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Foist
Sultan of Sweat
Joined: 08 May 2006
Posts: 3947 | TRs | Pics
Location: Back! |
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Foist
Sultan of Sweat
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Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:40 pm |
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| Randito wrote: | | It's interesting that fatal car collisions don't result in nearly the same level of Monday morning quarterbacking |
Uh what in the world are you talking about? Fatal car collisions are subjected to police investigations, insurance investigations, sworn statements, and often litigation. Far, far MORE "monday morning quarterbacking." If you're talking specifically about on hiking-related forums, well, obviously you're going to hear more such discussion about hiking accidents. But the notion that the causes that led to fatal car accidents are generally subject to less scrutiny than causes of hiking accidents, well, that's just not true.
I do agree with your point that a properly prepared and executed climb is probably less risky than many activities considered more mundane, such as road biking. I actually don't do much road biking, for that reason. Unacceptable risk to me, when weighed against my fairly low enjoyment when there is significant traffic. (But of course, I certainly don't begrudge others that enjoy it and do it.)
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
Joined: 20 Mar 2012
Posts: 6378 | TRs | Pics
Location: Seattle |
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Cyclopath
Faster than light
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Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:13 pm |
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| Joseph wrote: | | Isn't it kind of hard to compare deaths from an activity with a potential for lethality (driving a car) with that of climbing a peak in winter? The former is something we all have to do - to get to work, shop, live our lives, etc. while the latter is something you obviously do NOT have to do, but choose to do for whatever reason. |
We don't all have to drive. We choose to drive because it makes life dramatically easier, but a compelling choice is still a choice. You can shop online and have things delivered, you can walk and ride a bike, you can work from home. Driving is obviously something people do NOT have to do, because plenty of people don't do it.
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Randito
Snarky Member
Joined: 27 Jul 2008
Posts: 9072 | TRs | Pics
Location: Bellevue at the moment. |
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Randito
Snarky Member
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Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:29 pm |
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| Foist wrote: | | Far, far MORE "monday morning quarterbacking." |
Monday Morning Quarterbacking is purposeless positioning with the intent of showing that if one had been in charge thar the outcome would have been better.
Police performing investigations and attorneys representing the interests of their clients in the case is far more purposeful that mere ego inflation of social media commentaries of a tragic outcome.
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thunderhead
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Joined: 14 Oct 2015
Posts: 1371 | TRs | Pics
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| Randito wrote: | | Monday Morning Quarterbacking is purposeless |
Completely disagree. Figuring out what went wrong is how you avoid future accidents. Anyone in any dangerous endeavor should study its accidents in order to avoid them.
Shred
Shred |
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RumiDude
Marmota olympus
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
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RumiDude
Marmota olympus
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Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:31 pm |
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| thunderhead wrote: | | Randito wrote: | | Monday Morning Quarterbacking is purposeless |
Completely disagree. Figuring out what went wrong is how you avoid future accidents. Anyone in any dangerous endeavor should study its accidents in order to avoid them. |
Problem is you can't get that here. In most of these threads here and elsewhere trying to analyze accidents, the information is sparse to almost nothing. People complain that there information they want to know isn't provided by the news and/or sheriff's department. In one thread about an accident on this forum, one member complained because they wanted to know exactly what was in the victim's pack. And what results from the lack of confirmed information is is speculation, guessing, and assorted scattered thoughts. In other words, no real help in avoiding a similar fate.
It takes a long time to gather all the information needed to meaningfully analyze any accident. Additionally, the real analysis is to examine human behavior, and it is difficult to suss out what people were thinking when they made their decisions. The NYT did a great piece on the Tunnel Creek accident mentioned in the OP, but it took them a year to thoroughly investigate and report on it. Even then there were gaps in information and disputes as to the analysis.
As Snowdog wrote upthread, "The American Alpine Club publishes reports of accidents in North America annually. Reports are followed by an Analysis, written by participants, or Rangers or SAR personnel. When written by participants, they include their thoughts on what went wrong, and why, and lessons learned." Maybe that is what we should look to for help.
Rumi
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
dave allyn, Randito, Snowdog, Kim Brown
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
dave allyn, Randito, Snowdog, Kim Brown
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