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thuja
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thuja
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PostSat Dec 30, 2023 3:32 pm 
This winter is reminding me of the last very low snow winter of 2014/15. I recall the flowers at Paradise being in full bloom 4th of July weekend afterwards. I'm curious what the implications might be for outdoor recreation in addition to water resources. Will places that normally are snow covered see additional early season visitation? Will highway passes like 410/20 open extra early? Do we have to move the east-side balsam-root hikes up by a month or so? Will the mosquitoes peak early and fade early? Will some places that had reliable water become dry camps? Are the flower seekers going to be disappointed if they go the regular time? Thinking and wishing for lots of snow to pile up but it doesn't look like it's in the cards for this year. The snowshoes have been quiet and patient all summer, will they start to whimper in the garage and plaintively ask why they can't go out to play?

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slabbyd
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 am 
Fire, lots and lot of fire. Plan on getting all your big outdoor rec plans done by the end of July.

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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 8:22 am 
slabbyd wrote:
Fire, lots and lot of fire. Plan on getting all your big outdoor rec plans done by the end of July.
Not necessarily. Here on the Also Washington side, we are having W. Washington drizzle and fog. Should that continue on, it would keep things moist and green. I'm thinking of the summer of 1981 after a warm and wettish winter. I had wet boots for most of the summer and fires were rare. That's in the Methow area. A very burny place. Weather is a wait and see game and we still can get dumps in the mountains. It's still too early to make any predictions.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities

Chief Joseph, ChinookPass
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babylero
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 10:48 am 
What matters more will be spring. A cool and wet spring would mean snow lingers longer and lower fire risk. A warm/dry spring means a low snow pack winter is worse. Recall this most recent winter where we had a very healthy snow pack, followed by a very warm spring. Glaciers were heavily ablated by July in some cases. I was on the Goode glacier in July and it had lots of blue ice, the Sulphide on Shuksan was very ablated with many crevasses open in August that would not normally be open even in September in most years.

Secret Agent Man
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Schroder
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 10:58 am 
There's a little more snow now than that year and it sounds like some snow is headed here next week. As a reminder, here are a couple of photos from the top of McClellans Butte in February 2015

SpookyKite89, zimmertr  Now I Fly, day_hike_mike, jaysway, Kascadia
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jinx'sboy
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 am 
Maybe I am miss-remembering- but i am recalling 2013-14 as THE dry winter. It’s what set up the Methow for the Carlton Fire in 2014. Here s a pic I took, Jan 17, 2014. It taken just NE of Twisp, along Balky Hill Rd, looking west up towards the head of the Twisp River.(Reynolds Pk in the back). As for fire for, yes, the long term forecast, all the way thru next summer is for warm and dry. But what will determine fire season, maybe even more than snowpack, is the amount and duration of spring moisture mid-April to early summe…..,and right now that looks pretty bleak.

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thunderhead
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 11:13 am 
The pacific ocean temperature anomaly was warmer in 2015 than this current case, so i still hold some hope for this snow season.

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BeardoMcGrath
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 11:31 am 
A friend of mine was able to hike to Blanca Lake in late March 2015, and I recall the picture showed a thin layer of ice on the lake and basically no snow. So we will have to wait and see if conditions are similar to that in a couple months.

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Schroder
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 11:44 am 
jinx'sboy wrote:
Maybe I am miss-remembering- but i am recalling 2013-14 as THE dry winter.
You're misremembering. That was a big snow season. I got the most skiing of my life in that winter, though it came a little late.

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Bowregard
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 11:58 am 
It is still early yet to expect anything like 2015. There have been a number of years with very little snow through the December that made up for it dramatically Jan-Feb-Mar. For reference here is a photo taken from Kaleetan looking back towards Melakwa Lakes and Snoqualmie Pass on June 6, 2015. Chair Peak Lake was clear of ice not long after this photo was taken. Conditions looked about the same on Aug. 13, 2013 (more normal snow year).

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Cyclopath
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 12:29 pm 

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Cyclopath
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Cyclopath
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 12:29 pm 

idoru  Comma
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treeswarper
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treeswarper
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 5:21 pm 
I am going to plant some lettuce, if I can find the seeds. confused.gif Dunno where I put the bag o' seeds.

What's especially fun about sock puppets is that you can make each one unique and individual, so that they each have special characters. And they don't have to be human––animals and aliens are great possibilities
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puzzlr
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puzzlr
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 9:34 pm 
I picked out the lowest SNOTEL years for Alpine Meadows which is at 3500' on the west side, a little south of GoldBar. You wouldn't expect much snow here, but comparisons YOY are still valid. 2014/2015 was definitely the low year, but 2004/5, 2013/14, and now 2023/24 are about at the same level as of Jan 1. 2014 Took off later in the year. 2005 stayed about level.
Alpine Meadows SNOTEL
Alpine Meadows SNOTEL

Mid Fork Rocksflickr

Bowregard, zimmertr
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jinx'sboy
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jinx'sboy
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PostTue Jan 02, 2024 10:56 pm 
Schroder wrote:
You're misremembering. That was a big snow season. I got the most skiing of my life in that winter, though it came a little late.
You’re correct. I checked with some with more reliable memories (e.g younger) and was reminded that winter began late. Thanks.

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